Welcome back to the $ix Rack. Week 4 was a word that rhymes with… nevermind I used that line last year.
Not much of a showing this week (2-3-1) considering such high (self-) expectations. It’s always funny how we bitch and moan about the ones we narrowly lose but never seem to bring up the ones we narrowly win. So we can just skip past that part here and get into some quick football talk.
Per Stewart Mandel, more ranked teams have lost through 4 weeks than any other year in the AP Poll’s 85-year history. That’s pretty exciting stuff, people. I think Ole Miss vs Alabama and Arkansas vs Georgia could really indicate just how crazy we’re gonna get this year, as everyone’s two best teams each host a top 12 opponent this week. I guess we can unofficially pencil this in as a preview of what a first or second round of a 12-team playoff may look like in a few years.
I am not an SEC guy by any means (if you ever catch me wearing a polo to a football game, feel free to kick my ass without warning), but outside of the SEC, I’m not sure which conference is able to offer up a legitimate football team to compete for a national championship. I’d have to look up who I picked last week for the playoff but let’s stick with those teams for this week.
In the NFL, it looks like the underdogs had yet another winning week: 9-7 ATS with SEVEN underdogs winning outright. And let’s not forget we were a 4th and 20 conversion and 66-yard field goal away from another one winning.
The crowd view of the Justin Tucker game winner is INCREDIBLE.
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) September 26, 2021
Nothing but pain in Detroit. (Via ig: Southenddearborn)@BSMotorCity pic.twitter.com/iJ6cBZGatw
God I can’t believe I’m taking time out of my life to discuss an idiot kicker, but this is one of the coolest things I’ve ever seen in my life. The man is kicking the ball FROM THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LOGO. Build Justin Tucker a statue. Name a street after him. He’s the best kicker I’ve ever seen in my life. Maybe the only guy that I am truly stunned when he misses – no matter how far away the kick is.
The Chiefs losing again kind of convolutes the whole Super Bowl prediction thing. Maybe they aren’t as good as I thought. Or… maybe we tend to dwell on one week’s performance more than we should. To be honest, I’m not really sure. I’ll stick with the Chiefs over a surprise NFC team theory. Technically, I’m surprised the Rams are actually as good as everyone thought so I’ll put them in on a technicality. Let’s go with Chiefs over Rams this week.
Now let’s recap last week’s action before we get to this week’s surprise.
LAST WEEK’S PICKS
1. Missouri -2.5 (vs. Boston College)
LOSER
Always sucks losing in OT but this was an awesome game. Watching the “big-boned” kicker bury that kick from New Hampshire at the end of regulation made me jump out of my chair at work. S/o to BC RB Pat Garwo III. Great name and great game. Not only did he average 7 yards per carry in this game but turns out he has also averaged 7 yards per carry this entire season. Think BC is due to get absolutely curb stomped some time relatively soon but they proved this past week that they got something cooking in Chestnut Hill.
2. Arkansas +5.5 (vs. Texas A&M)
🚨 WINNER 🚨
Turns out this game was at Jerry World, so I was wrong when I said the Razorbacks were playing at home. More importantly, however, I was right when I said they should be favorites.
3. Iowa -23 (vs. Colorado State)
LOSER
I don’t know what to make of the B1G this year. If someone somehow someway makes the playoff, I would be very surprised if they were actually competitive. I genuinely don’t know if any one team in the B1G is notably better than the others and until OSU loses a B1G matchup, I’m just going to continue to presume they’re the best team no matter where they are ranked.
4. Charlotte 49ers -3 vs Middle Tennessee State
PUSH
Thought this one was locked up (twice!) and then Middle Tennessee State would answer a Charlotte TD by driving down the field effortlessly. I’m laughing out loud picturing myself explaining to some stranger that I am bummed out because I had the Charlotte 49ers by 3 points and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders scored late to make it a push.
5. Tampa Bay +1 (vs Rams)
LOSER
Saw none of this game but I will take this opportunity to admit I might be wrong about the Rams and Matthew Stafford.
6. Notre Dame/Wisconsin OVER 46.5 [College Gameday Pick]
🚨 WINNER 🚨
*[insert evil laugh and humble brag here]*
That’s 4 straight Gameday winners but who’s counting?
Week 4 – 1:1 (+103)
- Maryland -650 (vs Kent State) ✅
- Ravens -420 (vs Lions) ✅
- Panthers -400 (vs Texans) ✅
- Oklahoma -800 (vs WVU) ✅
🚨 WINNER 🚨
The Ravens had a 0.1% chance of winning at one point and subsequently so did we. Oh, Justin Tucker. You sweet SOB.
Week 4 Long Shot Moneylines
Arkansas +186 (vs Texas A&M)
🚨 WINNER 🚨
All over this one.
New York Jets +440 (vs. Broncos)
LOSER
Note all over this one.
WEEK 5 WINNER$:
As for the surprise: I am so amped about this week’s games that you’re getting a bonus $ix Rack this week. That’s right! A $ix Rack of college football and a $ix Rack of NFL. Can’t wait to see where this runaway train of a Week 5 goes, but bust out your rosary beads for this week because we may need them.
WEEK 5 NCAAF WINNERS:
1. UCONN vs. Vanderbilt UNDER 51.5
I think this is pretty self-explanatory. The Huskies needed three games and 34 possessions prior to scoring their first TD against an FBS team this season. And I can say for certain that Vandy is not an offensive juggernaut. I don’t know who decided 7+ TDs were going to be scored in this game but I’m mildly concerned about their well-being.
Gritty late comeback by Vanderbilt gets it done for Commodores. It’s a final:
— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) September 25, 2021
Vanderbilt 77 yards
Georgia 62 points
2. Nebraska vs. Northwestern UNDER 50
This one too.
3. Oregon State -2.5 (vs. Washington)
Coming off an 18-point asskicking of USC, I think I’m falling for the Beavers and coach Jonathan Smith a bit. (This week’s fun fact: Smith was actually the Oregon State QB the last time they won 11 games in 2001.) I watched Chance Nolan a couple of times this year and last year and think his mobility makes him the ideal college QB. They’re facing off against a Washington team which genuinely doesn’t look any good (now 1-3 ATS after failing to cover against Cal). Give me the Beavers by a touchdown or more at home.
4. Bowling Green State +16.5 (vs. Kent State)
Bowling Green is 1 of 5 teams still perfect against the spread (4-0). They have been 17+ point underdogs twice this season already and covered both – including last weekend’s win in Minnesota. They are playing 1-3 Kent State this weekend and getting 17 points. I’m not sure what else needs to be said.
5. Bowling Green vs Kent State UNDER 56.5
Both teams have hit the under in every game so far. Combined points for both teams is 39.8 PPG while their defenses surrender a combined 49.4 PPG. Man I hate to take three unders in one week but this one’s too good to pass up.
6. Georgia -18.5 vs Arkansas [College Football Gameday Pick]
I was alarmed when I saw the points (18.5) Arkansas was getting in this game. Which makes me think Vegas knows something we don’t. Which makes me think Vegas wants me to think they know something I don’t. Which makes me think…yeah I don’t know. I have tried multiple times to write up a reason for why I think Georgia covers this spread and I seriously can’t. The ultimate decision maker for this I think is it’s easier to copy and paste a picture than it is to shittily edit a new mascot head on my body so just give me the GD Bulldog head again.
WEEK 5 NFL WINNERS:
1. Ravens +1 (vs. Broncos)
What on earth?
2. Packers -6.5 (vs. Steelers)
Considering the Steelers’ putrid offensive showing so far, gotta think this comes down to can the Steelers D stop the Packers offense. I am casually looking through the Steelers cornerback depth chart trying to figure out who is going to cover Davante Adams. Hard to imagine a washed up Joe Haden or my old neighbor in Southside, Cam Sutton, can keep the Packers passing attack in check.
3. Bucs -6.5 (vs. Patriots)
The game we have all been waiting for since March 20, 2020.
4. Seahawks +3 (vs. 49ers)
Per Action Network, Russell Wilson is 20-11-2 ATS as a road underdog and 26-14-4 coming off a loss (both = 65%). Meanwhile, Kyle Shanahan has covered only 8 of 28 games as a favorite (30%). Let’s just play the odds here and don’t be surprised when the Seahawks win.
5. Chiefs -7 (vs. Eagles)
Chiefs 0-3 against the spread this year and 1-12 ATS in last 13 games. Hmmm. Yeah, don’t waste your time trying to convince yourself Jalen Hurts can keep a lost Eagles team within 1 TD of the Chiefs. Also speaking of lost eagles…
If you see the bird, please do not approach it as the bird may fly away if approached by someone unfamiliar. Call the Aviary’s main line at 412-323-7235 with your location. Thank you. pic.twitter.com/scZ8bIFRP9
— National Aviary (@National_Aviary) September 25, 2021
6. Raiders +3.5 (vs. Chargers)
Let’s not forget this is essentially the same Chargers team that seemed to blow a lead every week last year, including four consecutive double-digit leads at one point. I foresee a very late Raiders TD to win this one outright. Cue the Derek Carr for MVP discussion and don’t forget you heard it here first.
Week 5 – 1:1 (+105)
- Georgia -1100 (vs. Arkansas)
- Ohio State -650 (vs. Rutgers)
- Florida -330 (vs. Kentucky)
- Clemson -800 (vs. Boston College)
- Bills -1600 (vs. Texans)
I know what you’re thinking and trust me, Florida is not going to lose to Kentucky.
Week 5 Long Shot Moneylines
Northwestern +330 (vs. Nebraska)
Taking this solely because I’m probably getting a 50% discount on it.
South Alabama +390 (vs. LA-Lafayette)
Incorrectly presumed this was a cross-town rivalry prior to placing this bet. Turns out they’re 4 hours apart but you still gotta think this is the Jaguar’s Super Bowl.
Enjoy Week 5!