Welcome back to the $ix Rack. A 3-3 showing leaves us feeling like Lions and Steelers fans this week – basically not really distinctly happy or sad but ready to move on to next week regardless.
An action-packed Top 10 College Football weekend will certainly help with #2 Alabama taking on #21 Arkansas, #3 Oregon hosting #23 Utah, #4 Ohio State hosting #7 Michigan State, and #5 Cincinnati hosting 8-2 SMU. Already excited to see how things shake out.
As I’ve said all along, I still think we get some combination of Georgia, Ohio State, Cincinnati, and Alabama. As I mentioned last week, these things usually sort themselves out for the CFB Playoff committee, but I can’t stop thinking about the 2-loss Bama debate and how this may be the year the Committee is in big trouble. Can Bama genuinely get in if they lose to Georgia in the SEC Championship game? Let’s take a look at the current standings and discuss how I see things ultimately shaking out.
Let’s assume Vegas odds are correct: 12-1 Ohio State and 13-0 Cincinnati win out, so they are both in. Georgia is in win or lose in the SEC Championship game so that’s a third team in for sure as well.
So that just leaves a fourth team. I could be wrong, but I think (and Vegas agrees) Oregon ultimately loses once to Utah either this weekend or in Pac 12 Championship. I think this leaves a 2-loss Pac 12 team vying for a fourth spot in their best case scenario. You’ll notice Oklahoma isn’t in the above graphic, but let’s also assume either they or Oklahoma State run the table and get to 12-1. This leaves the Big 12 battling for the fourth spot as well. And the ACC has basically been out since Week 3, but let’s say best case for ACC and Wake Forest runs the table and finishes 12-1.
So now let’s ponder who gets the fourth spot over a 11-2 Alabama team assuming they lose to UGA in the SEC Championship.
The contenders:
- 10-2 Michigan
- 10-2 Michigan State
- 11-1 Notre Dame (loss to Cincinnati)
- 12-1 Oklahoma State/Oklahoma (Big 12 Champs)
- 12-1 Wake Forest (ACC Champs)
- 11-2 Oregon/Utah (Pac 12 Champs)
Looking at the current standings, tell me which one of these teams makes the massive jump over Alabama:
- Notre Dame who is finishing up with Georgia Tech and Stanford (with no league championship win)
- Oklahoma (would have to move up double digit spots)
- Oklahoma State (who lost to Iowa State which will likely end up unranked)
- Wake Forest (who lost to UNC which will likely end up unranked)
- Michigan (2 losses and no league title)
- Michigan State (2 losses and no league title)
- Oregon with 2 losses
- Utah with 2 losses
Ultimately, I see no way Alabama drops behind these other teams following a loss to the #1 team in the country.
This leaves us with the following SEC Championship scenarios:
- Georgia wins: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Cincinnati 4. Alabama
- Alabama wins: 1. Alabama 2. Georgia 3. Ohio State 4. Cincinnati
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but barring a #3/#4 flip-flop to avoid this, the first scenario leaves us with the ultimate CFB playoff nightmare: a Georgia vs. Alabama REMATCH after the SEC championship. You heard it here first.
*Editor’s Note: I can’t believe he spent all of that time breaking down hypothetical scenarios in November. Can I bet a million dollars that all of the above shit he just said will be out the window in 3 weeks time?*
In NFL action, it continues to be the year of the underdog. Dogs were 28-12-1 ATS the last 3 weeks and have covered 58% of games so far this season.
Because I’m too stubborn to change it at this point, I am sticking with my Ravens vs. Rams prediction. I am well aware of what happened this past weekend, which makes this week a great time for us to buy in on our futures bet:
(Note: I was super bored looking through some other NFL Futures bets and I just couldn’t pass this one up. I don’t know who decided this is 12-1 but you are insane if you don’t think Belicheat has this wrapped up barring a sub-.500 finish.)
Now for last week’s action…
WEEK 11 RE$ULTS
1. Penn State PICK EM (vs. Michigan)
LOSER
Just painful painful stuff right here.
2. Oklahoma vs Baylor over 62.5
LOSER
3. Oklahoma over 34.5 team total points (vs. Baylor)
LOSER
I pretty much quit following this game after the goose egg in the first quarter. Damn you Caleb Williams. Damn you. I couldn’t have been any more wrong about this.
4. Green Bay -3 (vs. Seattle)
🚨WINNER🚨
Like we hoped, Russ looked more rusty than a (now technically immunized) Rodgers.
5. Detroit +9.5 (vs Pittsburgh)
🚨WINNER🚨
While this was painful to watch for so many, count me in as someone who enjoyed every second.
6. Ole Miss +2.5 (vs. Texas A&M) [College Gameday Pick]
🚨WINNER🚨
Why on earth did I ever stop making a College Gameday pick?
Week 11 So Stupid It Doesn’t Make Any Sense Longshot Moneylines:
FIU +320 (vs. MTSU)
LOSER
Texas Tech +320 (vs. Iowa State)
🚨WINNER🚨
Maryland +425 (vs. Michigan State)
LOSER
Whelp, we shit the bed on 2 out of 3, but (my new favorite kicker) Jonathan Garibay’s 62-yarder got us trending in the right direction again.
Week 11 1:1 Parlay (-108)
- Oregon -625 (vs. Washington State)
- UCLA -835 (vs. Colorado)
- Tampa Bay -455 (vs. Washington)
- The Indianapolis -455 (vs. Jacksonville)
LOSER
I’ll gladly pay $20 every weekend to watch Tom Brady lose.
As for this week’s winners…
WEEK 12 WINNER$:
1. Oregon State +3.5 (vs. Arizona State)
Our Beavers bounced back last week after a couple of pathetic showings in consecutive weeks. And the even better news: the boys are back in town! They’re 5-0 at home ATS this season while the Fighting Herms are 1-3 ATS on the road.
2. Michigan vs Maryland UNDER 57
I had the opportunity to watch these two teams in consecutive weeks and I can tell you nothing about their offenses makes me think they will each score a touchdown each quarter.
3. Utah -3 (vs. Oregon)
Like I mentioned previously, I do think Oregon gets beat before things are all said and done. No real data to back up why it happens this week other than I have a Utah Utes shirt from an internship in Salt Lake City 5 years ago.
4. Tampa Bay -10.5 (vs. New York Giants)
I think Tampa tries to win this game by 30. They’ll have this covered by the half and never look back.
5. Los Angeles Chargers -5 (vs Pittsburgh)
Let the Mike Tomlin trends continue! Tomlin’s Steelers have consistently played poorly on the west coast (2-6 all-time). Even though Covid-19 is obviously made up, the chances of Big Ben testing negative twice before Saturday is essentially zero. I think this spread will move to a TD or more this weekend when Big Ben officially can’t play. Get on this spread now, people.
6. Michigan State +19.5 (vs. OSU) [College Gameday Pick]
Ohio State wins but this is too many points. And don’t be surprised if it’s some garbage time points that does it.
Week 12 So Stupid It Doesn’t Make Any Sense Longshot Moneylines:
Syracuse +390 (vs. NC State)
Northwestern +390 (vs. Purdue)
Maryland +490 (vs. Michigan)
I kind of like the Syracuse one, so that will definitely lose. The other two make no sense whatsoever, so they probably stand a realistic chance. Maybe Purdue doesn’t care unless it’s a Top 5 team, and maybe Michigan gets caught (post-big win) looking ahead to their matchup with OSU? Sure, let’s go with that.
Week 12 1:1 Parlay (-101)
- Alabama -1400 (vs. Arkansas)
- Miami -180 (vs. NY Jets)
- Tampa Bay -550 (vs. NY Giants)
This is basically even odds on the Dolphins beating a Joe Flacco-led Jets team. I don’t know what more we could ask for here.
Enjoy Week 12 perverts!