Week 0 is in the books and what a roller coaster ride it was! A hot 3-0 start was negated by a cool 0-3 finish, and it left me thinking maybe I should have sat Week 0 out after all.
LAST WEEK’S PICKS
Illinois +7 (vs. Nebraska)
🚨 WINNER 🚨
I cannot wait to forget about the first scoring play of the season and remember it later this year. Somehow, someway, the dumbest part of the play is NOT the play itself, but is actually the explanation from the (He Who Shall Not Be Named) referee following the replay review.
(start around 2 minutes in and watch through replay review)
That’s right! “The runner’s knee was down on the goal line and the ball was thrown from the end zone. The result of the play is a safety.”
As soon as I heard the imbecile say it, I jumped out of my seat ready to riot. Let’s break this down one part at a time here.
Right off the bat, “The runner’s knee was down on the goal line” would mean “the ball was thrown from the endzone” does not matter. You, yourself, just admitted he is “down” before he threw it so let’s take the second part out of the statement and try again.
“The runner’s knee was down on the goal line. The result of the play is a safety.”
Don’t know how I missed this at first, but let’s not ignore the fact that he refers to him as a “runner” as well. So (despite how comical it is) just completely ignore the player throwing the ball at the end of this play because he is admittedly down. This leaves us with just a good old fashioned punt return and “the result of this play is a safety” is wrong for multiple reasons.
- It does not matter “the runner’s knee was down on the goal line” – just where the ball was when the knee comes down.
- Because he fielded the ball in play and his momentum carried him backwards, the ball should be placed where he initially fielded it (between the 1- and 2-yard line). Think of this as forward progress so to speak – probably one of the first handful of things you learn in referee school.
So 0/3 for He Who Shall Not Be Named. Good job. Good effort. And good start to the season. Keep in mind this was after a lengthy review of the play as well! God Bless Dean Blandino having to try to make sense of that.
Illinois vs. Nebraska UNDER 55
🚨 WINNER 🚨
This game somehow came dangerously close to averaging two touchdowns a quarter and I still don’t believe it.
New Mexico State +10 (vs UTEP)
LOSER
It’s only Week 1 and I’m already more than mildly concerned about my made-up “Mock Connection.” Mr. Mock clearly needs to get back in the lab and start re-crunching some numbers. This genuinely looked like a high school homecoming football game where your athletic director purposefully schedules a shitty team but they’re somehow exponentially better than you. The stream itself added to the misery too as the cheerleaders were equally as loud as the announcers. The only good news here is I did get some clarification from my dad on an issue we discussed last week.
Hawaii vs. UCLA OVER 68
LOSER
Well, one of the two offenses did not “miss a beat.” This bet was officially cooked when UCLA brought in the white running backs late in the third quarter. Let’s mark that down as a queue to turn off the game from now on if you have the over in the game.
UCONN (vs. Fresno State) total points UNDER 17
🚨 WINNER 🚨
This was even uglier than expected. Full disclosure: I watched zero seconds of this game and it looks like I didn’t miss much.
Alcorn State -13.5 (vs. NC Central)
LOSER
Right off the bat, it did really look like Alcorn State would dominate this game. But like they always say, anything is possible in the Celebration Bowl. Turns out, NC Central didn’t need the 14 points Vegas gave them at the start.
WEEK 1 PICKS:
This week’s winners:
Louisiana Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns +8 vs Texas
FREE MONEY ALERT! I had to put my beer down and wipe my eyes multiple times before I could believe this spread. The Ragin’ Cajuns return most of the team that whipped up Iowa State in their opener last year to face off against a Texas team starting a freshman quarterback with zero career passes. And they’re getting 8 points to start. Sign me up!
Maryland vs West Virginia UNDER 57.5
Geographically, these schools are so close so why does this seem like such a weird matchup? I don’t know what to say other than I don’t think either Maryland (23.6 PPG in 2020) or West Virginia (26.5 PPG in 2020) score more than 28-30 points.
Minnesota +14 vs Ohio State
If you read my column last year, you know I love to take OSU to cover almost every weekend. My logic here, however, is the Golden Gophers (at home) are returning Mohamed Ibrahim who seems destined to run wild against an Ohio State defense ranked a pedestrian 59th in total defense last year. And while the Gophers return veteran Tanner Morgan, the Buckeyes will have CJ Stroud making his first start. I cannot imagine the Buckeyes losing this game but I can see this being a one score game going into the fourth quarter.
Tennessee over 48 team points (vs. Bowling Green)
Bowling Green gave up 45.0 PPG (126th / 127 teams) last year exclusively against all MAC schools. I can’t imagine it going much better against an SEC school that runs a spread offense. Michigan transfer Joe Milton will run the show for Tennessee and I think realistically even Tennessee’s back-ups should move the ball up and down the field on Bowling Green.
Duke -6.5 (at Charlotte)
I thought this line was a misprint as well. Duke went 2-9 last year and still beat Charlotte 53-19. I can guarantee you that Duke can’t possibly be much worse, and I’ll take my chances that Charlotte isn’t 28 points better.
Georgia +3.5 (vs Clemson)
I kind of like how this final pick was the College Gameday pick last week and I might stick with this for the time being. I am just too excited about this game to sit on the sidelines. Ultimately, I’ll take the experience of JT Daniels over the inexperience of DJ Uiagalelei. Give me the ‘Dogs getting a field goal and don’t be surprised if they win it outright.
Week 1 – 1:1 (+103)
The 1:1 is back. This is where I parlay moneylines from multiple favorites to win in order to make my bet +100. So, a $20 bet wins $20 (aka 1:1).
- Ohio State (vs. Minnesota) -600
- Rutgers (vs. Temple) -700
- Michigan (vs. Western Michigan) -1000
- Alabama (vs. Miami FL) -1200
- USC (vs. San Jose State) -650
- Oregon (vs. Fresno State) -1600
- Cincinnati (vs. Miami OH) -2500
This must be the first occurrence where both Miami’s are a part of the same parlay. Obviously Rutgers sticks out like a sore thumb here as far as the one most likely to blow this for me. I must say, if I lose this because Michigan or Ohio State loses, I’ll take it.
Week 1 Long Shot Moneylines
The LSML is also back and looking for revenge! I will pick two +200 or three +300 underdogs as opposed to just one like last year (yeah, let’s just not talk about it). The strategy here is if you hit one, you at least break even and if you hit both, you have yourself a nice little payday treat.
UL Lafayette +260 vs Texas
See above.
Oregon State +225 vs Purdue
Things to know: Oregon State QB Sam Noyer was the starting quarterback for Colorado last year. And after a 2-0 start, Purdue quietly lost their last 4 games last year. I don’t know what to say other than this game seems like a toss-up.
Enjoy Week 1! I’ll be in Madison this weekend watching the Nittany Lions trounce the Badgers.