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The $ix Rack Presented by Trav: Week 8

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Week 7 is leaving me hungry for more after a near perfect Saturday and a more than disappointing Sunday. All said and done, we ended up with a draw at 3-3 so yet another week of free entertainment brought to you by the $ix Rack. 

Not much to say other than I am still itching for that 6-0 week and something tells me this honestly might be the week we do it. I will admit there are some weeks where picking half a dozen games can be tricky but I found myself having to cut down from around 10-12 games I liked this weekend. 

As far as football itself goes, let’s take a vow to never again talk about what happened in Bloomington, IN on October 24, 2020. Instead let’s talk about Top 5 teams taking care of business this past week with authority. 

Michigan looks GOOD. Virginia Tech sucks again and Kansas still sucks. 

And Wisconsin WAS looking good. I honestly don’t think I can dive into this too much as it gets me too fired up but this is MINDBLOWING. I can’t imagine being Graham Mertz and trying to explain to my great aunt that I can’t play for 21 days because the Big Ten has its own made up rules that requires an isolation period MORE THAN DOUBLE what the CDC suggests.

Okay yeah, that’s enough. As always, let’s start with the recap.

WEEK 7 RECAP

1. Northwestern vs. Maryland UNDER 55 💰WINNER💰

Final Score: Northwestern 43 – Maryland 3

We nailed the point total but I certainly didn’t see this coming. Great Value Tagovailoa looked worse than even expected with 94 yards passing and 3 INT’s. Sure he isn’t quite surrounded by the same talent as his brother was but that was abysmal. Obviously it’s their first games of the season, but the question from this game is whether Northwestern is actually good or if Maryland is really that bad?

2. Ohio State -26.5 (vs. Nebraska) 💰WINNER💰

Final Score: Ohio State 52 – Nebraska 17

Ohio State scored their 50 points I promised and Nebraska didn’t score the 23 points I promised they wouldn’t. In Nebraska’s defense, I thought Adrian Martinez played well for the most part and I could see them exceeding expectations this year if the defense starts to play better. And against anyone else not named Ohio State in the Big Ten, it presumably will.

3. Cowboys -1 (vs. Washington) ❌LOSER❌

Final Score: Redskins 25 – Cowboys 3

Jerry Jones has bigger problems than whether or not his players should stand for the national anthem. The Cowboys seriously suck and I can promise you we won’t make this mistake again. (Cue 3 weeks from now “The ‘Boys are back!”) Dallas is now 0-7 (!!!) against the spread – a little tidbit we can hopefully take advantage of from here on out as we learned the hard way this week.

4. Chiefs -7.5 (vs. Broncos) 💰WINNER💰

Final Score: Chiefs 43 – Broncos 16

This was just straight up free money. I firmly believe if they played 10 times, the Chiefs would cover this 9/10 times. Also saw Pat Mahomes has hit the over 3/3 times in games where the over/under is 44 or less so we can throw that on the back burner as they almost accomplished that by themselves in a blizzard. Maybe the Editor’s theory of the weather doesn’t really matter in over/unders is true?

5. Temple vs. Memphis OVER 70.5 ❌LOSER❌

Final Score: Temple 29 – Memphis 41

Yeah this one just straight up hurts. I wish I would have started keeping track of ½ point wins and losses I’ve had in my life. It feels like it’s about 1 win to every 100 losses. This particularly hurt as Temple was unsuccessful on four cracks with first and goal at the end of the game and a field goal would have covered the spread. Bonus good news for Memphis: they were able to bring down their total yards allowed per game as they only gave up 500 yards.

6. Guest Pick: Titans -1.5 (vs. Steelers) ❌LOSER❌

Final Score: Steelers 27 – Titans 24

I don’t know how many times Gostkowski is going to burn me this year but I’m going to take it like a man. I also don’t know how the Titans could not take advantage of 3 Big Ben turnovers and turn this into a W. The Steelers (unfortunately) look really good and are now 5-1 against the spread – tied for best in the league with the Packers and Chargers.

LSMLW #1: Rutgers +370 (vs. Michigan State) 💰WINNER💰

Final Score: Rutgers 38 – Michigan State 27

We did it. We did it. We finally did it.

LSMLW #2: Southern Miss +390 (vs. Liberty) ❌LOSER❌

Final Score: Southern Miss 34 – Liberty 56

Hugh Freeze still sucks.

What was I right about:

  • Big Ten Unders
  • OSU and Nebraska vs. the spread
  • Denver’s inability to control the ball and keep Kermit off the field
  • Memphis D

What was I wrong about:

  • Something having to give with the Cowboys
  • Kyle Allen
  • Temple O
  • The Steelers…they’re legit

WEEK 8 WINNERS

On to week 8 where we hope to keep things rolling!

1. Kansas State +3.5 (vs. West Virginia…mountain mama!)

“The wrong team is favored” alert. Since the opening week loss to Arkansas State, #16 Kansas State has reeled off four straight wins (and 4-0 against the spread). WVU is largely unproven under Neal Brown against Top 25 teams including 1-4 last year and losing its only matchup this year against Ok State by 2 TD’s. Someone pinch me, Vegas is favoring the wrong team and giving me a field goal to work with if I’m wrong.

*Editor’s Note: If you are one of the few people that still haven’t figured out what the term “flicker” means…see above photo.*

2. BYU -28.5 (vs. Western Kentucky)

My Mormon boys are 5-1 against the spread this year. Yes, we all remember the “1” from a couple of weeks ago but BYU should hang 40+ on the Hilltoppers.

Western Kentucky scored 13 points against Chattanooga last week. What else do you need to know?

3. OSU -11.5 (vs. PSU)

If you are reading this, get on this spread now. I could see this moving to 14+ by the end of the week. Of course I hope I am wrong, but I saw nothing from PSU’s offense that made me think they can hang with OSU’s 50ppg against Big Ten opponents. Sure PSU’s defense looked good against Indiana for 3.5 quarters but this is like hitting .300 in low A-ball one week and expecting to be able to hit Clayton Kershaw the next. Penn State has of course played with OSU the past 3 games at home, but with no fans this year, let’s be serious. I think it’s more likely that Ohio State wins by 3-4 TD’s than only 1 TD.

*Editor’s Note: Nice blood money pick you coward. I’m giving out Penn State MONEYLINE with pride.*

4. Raiders +2.5 (vs. Browns)

Our second “the wrong team is favored” of the week. The Browns had to give it everything they had to beat the 1-win Bengals and count me in as someone not tooting the Browns horn. The Raiders recently bounced back from a Bills loss to beat the Chiefs and I’d be surprised if they don’t bounce back in similar fashion against the Browns. Our stat to know for this game (because this game is clearly just based on a hunch) is John Gruden, product of Sandusky, Ohio, has never lost to the Browns in his career (3-0).

grudent

5. Tampa Bay -10.5 (vs. New York Giants)

Tampa is on a roll both offensively and defensively. They flat out dominated a solid Raiders team last week and I expect much of the same this week against a far weaker opponent. They’re currently averaging 32 points per game (3rd best) and giving up only 20 per game (8th best). Pencil this in for a 30’s-to-teens final score.

6. Titans -5.5 (vs. Bengals)

The guest pickers are either ice cold or just conspiring to drive my record down (yes, that’s you Eagles fan, Pitt fan’s dad, Mattress Matt, and Chad). Something tells me it’s the former but we will pretend it’s the latter just for fun. As such, I had to go with someone I know I could guarantee wouldn’t be conspiring against me. Subsequently, this week will feature the first female guest picker. Worth noting, it may or may not be my sister.

Okay, it is my sister, and picking the Titans must run in the bloodstream, because she is rolling with Tennessee this week against the Bengals.

“Titans hopefully are mad at themselves coming off that loss from the Steelers. Probz coulda beat them in overtime if the Ghosty kicker lined it up right. One of the commentators reported during the game that every time he misses his kicks he misses to the right. Maybe he has worked that out over this past week. Also there is some stat out there that’s like if you can hold Henry to less than 109 yards you will win … I don’t think the Bengals can do that. (Author’s note: Bengals 28th in league in rush yards allowed per game – 133.7 ypg). I also can guess that in the past three seasons the Titans are 16-5 covering the spread after a loss. This is a complete guess but it makes me sound like I am good at my survivor pool every year bc I look at stats rather than gut feelings.”

As for Joe Burrow covering the spread yet again…

“Joe Burrow clearly is good – hopefully for everyone’s sake he is amazing and will be the next quarterback to root against. However, he’s like three sacks away from a lacerated kidney because he has nobody protecting him. We’ve seen this before with Andrew Luck.”

Let’s take her word for it. Derek Henry 109+ yards rushing in a 6+ point win while Joe Burrow watches from the ICU.

Long Shot Moneyline of the Week:

Arkansas +364 (vs. Texas A&M)

1:1

Not only are we debuting a female guest picker this week, but we are also debuting the 1:1. The 1:1 is a concept I came up with after a few beverages this past weekend and pretty sure it might be my best idea yet.

The concept is simple, you stack several (extremely) heavy favorites into a parlay until the odds equal 1:1. So what you put in is what you get out. Ea$y money. And when I say heavy favorites, I am talking about teams that will win 99.99% of the time.

This week’s 1:1 features the moneyline for the following teams we are taking in ALL CAPS (with a quick breakdown of their chances of losing):

CLEMSON vs Boston College (not wasting my breath here)
GEORGIA vs Kentucky (extremely unlikely)
ALABAMA vs Mississippi State (not a chance on earth)
BYU vs Western Kentucky (less likely than extremely unlikely)
MICHIGAN vs Michigan State (did you see who Rutgers beat last week?)
OLE MISS vs Vandy (Vandy might never win again)
OHIO STATE vs Penn State (again, hope I’m wrong)
LA-LAFAYETTE vs Texas State (Texas State. Texas State. Texas. State.)
MINNESOTA vs Maryland (guessing Maryland isn’t going to figure things out in one week)
IOWA STATE vs Kansas (Don’t forget, Pooka is gone)

The following gets you +102 odds aka our first 1:1 of the year. Who likes free money?

Enjoy Week 8. I’m telling you in advance this is the 6-0 week. Regardless, I’m planning on drinking enough this weekend that I’m hoping I will be able to remember it all when I wake up Monday morning.

SEASON TOTALS (W – L – PUSH)

LAST WEEK: 3-3-0

ALL WEEKS: 20-20-2

GUEST PICKS: 2-4-1

ME: 18-16-1

LONG SHOT MONEYLINES: 1-5

1:1’s: TBD

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