Welcome back, Rack Pack. Remember back in Week 1 when we kicked things off by going 1-4-1? Well guess what? We did it again in Week 15.
But this time around, we aren’t going to dwell on it. Plus, this is the Holiday Edition $ix Rack and nothing makes us more holly and jolly than a bounce back week.
Some quick college football talk: No surprise here, but Trav’s Highly Statistical Playoff Chance Model was spot on. We just played 4 months of football in a pandemic so the winner of Clemson vs. Ohio State could battle Bama to determine the national champion. Think about that.
WEEK 15 RECAP
1. Oregon State +7.5 (vs. Arizona State) – ❌LOSER❌
Final Score: Oregon State 33 – Arizona State 46
This game was so painful to watch. The Beavers only had two turnovers but it felt like 100. Every time I looked up at the screen, a Sun Devil player was streaking to the end zone untouched. The Beavers only lost by 13 but this spread was never in doubt.
2. Ohio State -20 (vs. Northwestern) – ❌LOSER❌
Final Score: Ohio State 22 – Northwestern 10
Trey Sermon had more yards by himself than Northwestern did as a team. Yet somehow, they STILL did not cover this spread. And even worse, Darren Rovell got the best of us for once.
I cashed out at $67,831.
— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) December 19, 2020
The current @pointsbetusa offer for me would have $44,616 at the end of the 3rd quarter.
We are still going with the simulcasthttps://t.co/Kimitp4BW8
Go Cats!!!
The highest Northwestern moneyline got was +175. I cashed out at +190. I had all the faith in my Wildcats. I didn’t have any faith in my heart holding up.
— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) December 19, 2020
That’s ok, read this to cheer yourself up.
3. Texas A&M -13.5 (vs. Tennessee) – 💰WINNER💰
Final Score: Texas A&M 34 – Tennessee 13
We saw the writing on the wall here at the $ix Rack but A&M still played like they had a chance to make the playoff.
4. Chiefs -3 (vs. Saints) – 
PUSH
Final Score: Chiefs 32 – Saints 29
A 300-word essay from me last week just for this game to be a push. That’s almost as bad as a loss.
At least we nailed Drew Brees‘ struggles. Man, I never thought I’d see a day where I’d watch Drew Brees go 15/34. That sounds more like a Kobe Bryant shot chart.
5. Eagles +6.5 (vs. Cardinals) – ❌LOSER❌
Final Score: Eagles 26 – Cardinals 33
Hey, what do you know? Another ½ point loss. That’s now four ½ point losses and zero half point wins. Remember, I voluntarily do this to myself weekly.
As soon as the Eagles took a safety to start the game off 2-0, I knew this line was cooked. Oh and the failed 2-point conversion early in the third quarter and botched XP didn’t help either.
6. Guest Pick: Notre Dame +10.5 (vs Clemson) – ❌LOSER❌
Final Score: Notre Dame 10 – Clemson 34
Dunny Boy gave it everything he had but couldn’t come through. Oh well. To make up for letting us down, we get to watch Notre Dame get crushed again next week.
LSMLW: Panthers +333 (vs. Packers) – ❌LOSER❌
Final Score: Panthers 16 – Packers 24
Yeah, there was a brief second I thought the Panthers were going to tie the game up and win it in OT, and then I remembered that the team playing against the LSML is the surest bet of the week.
Championship Parlay – 
LOSER
Ohio State -19.5 (vs. Northwestern) L
Florida +21.5 (vs. Alabama) W
USC -3.5 (vs. Oregon) L
Iowa State +7.5 (vs. Oklahoma) W
Clemson -5.5 (vs. Notre Dame) W
We started off piss poor, but battled back to at least have this parlay look respectable. Realistically though, there is nothing more disappointing than throwing together some monster parlay just to have the first leg lose.
(Side note: Was anyone else concerned Kedon Slovis was drinking prior to the Pac 12 Championship game?)
What was I right about:
- Trav’s Highly Statistical Playoff Chance Model
- Drew Brees is washed
- Big Ben is washed
- Aggies failed effort to make the playoff
What was I wrong about:
- Beavers hanging with the Sun Devils
- Ohio State covering
- Andy Reid being a bully
- Cardinals inability to cover past few weeks
- Letting Dunny Boy pick ND in a meaningful football game
WEEK 16 WINNERS
Yeah, let’s just say I stirred up some locks in the lab this week.
1. LA Lafayette vs. UTSA UNDER 57.5
There’s just something about the Ragin’ Cajuns and Bowl Season that gets the raisins a blazin’. The Roadrunners have hit the under in 7 of their past 8, and the Ragin’ Cajuns have hit the under in 3 of their past 4. Furthermore, UTSA hasn’t given up more than 28 points since Week 3. And I don’t think that there’s any chance the Roadrunners score anywhere near that many. This line keeps dipping but 57.5 should give us PLENTY of wiggle room.
2. GA State -3.5 (vs. Western Kentucky)
I’d have to google the GA State roster to name a player, but I can guarantee you they’re substantially better than Western Kentucky. 2020 is the year of the Fun Belt. GA State is 6-3 against the spread this year, while Western Kentucky is 3-8. Don’t overthink it.
3. Hawaii +10.5 (vs. Houston)
My cousin sent me a link saying Houston is missing a ton of guys for this game. I have no clue if it’s true, but regardless, I think Hawaii can keep this game close given their success the past four weeks. I have watched way too many Hawaii games, and I can tell you they’ve looked WAY better and are certainly good enough to hang with Houston, who is coming off losses in 3 of 4.
The most exciting aspect of this game is it features Dana Holgorsen vs Todd Graham. Expect sparks to fly. Some fun fact trivia for you: on November 25, 2011, WVU’s last home game in the Big East featured WVU vs Pitt and what two coaches? Yep, you guessed it: Holgorsen vs Graham.
4. Liberty +7.5 (vs. Coastal Carolina)
Both teams are 8-2 against the spread with Liberty’s outright lone loss coming to NC State. I think this game is a coin flip and I love working with 7.5 points with Liberty. Our boy Hugh Freeze comes through.
5. Colts -1.5 (vs. Steelers)
The Colts win this game by a TD. The Steelers are a good (not great) team spiraling out of control. This line is way too good to be true.
Now enjoy watching JuJu get pummeled on repeat.
The GIF of Vonn Bell laying out JuJu Smith-Schuster 👀💪💥 pic.twitter.com/JTA1YJR6NP
— Sports ReUp (@SportsReUp) December 22, 2020
6. Guest Pick: Titans +3.5 (vs. Packers)
The guest picker this week is Week 1 – Week 13 Trav. You may remember that Week 14 Trav gave up picking the Titans, so I had to bring the old Trav back in order to get this Titans lock in.
I know the Packers D has been better, but something tells me it’s not fixed. I’m going to say Derrick Henry runs for nearly 200 yards, the Titans control the clock and keep Aaron Rodgers off the field, and the Titans find a way to win this one outright.
Holiday Parlay
- Ragin’ Cajuns (vs. UTSA)
- Georgia State (vs. Western Kentucky)
- Chiefs (vs. Falcons)
- Ravens (vs. Giants)
Odds: +140
This will not lose. If you are reading this, and I miss this bet, let me know and I will personally refund your bet.
Heisman Trophy
Devonta Smith -180
Get your pick in now. The editor and I have never lost a Heisman bet and this year we’re riding with the favorite Devonta Smith at -180. That’s right, a $36 bet wins you $20 towards a case of beer.
And that’s that for Week 16. What’s more believable? Me finally getting that 6-0 week or an obese man breaking into my home and leaving perfectly wrapped packages beneath my Christmas tree? I’m thinking the 6-0 week.
Enjoy your holidays and stay safe. If you’re with your families, try not to lose too much money gambling. If you’re not with your families, try not to lose too much money gambling.