After a 4-1 week (and yet another 0-1 guest pick week), is it safe to say we are back? Probably not, but eff it.
WEEK 12 RECAP
1. Texas +1 (vs. Iowa State) – ❌LOSER❌
Final Score: Texas 20 – Iowa State 23
I deserved to lose this one knowing what I was signing up for by betting the Longhorns. Texas still isn’t back and something tells me Tom Herman isn’t the problem.
*Editor’s Note: Why is Tim Allen Santa Claus in that gif?*
2. Texas State Coastal Carolina OVER 58.5 – 
WINNER
Final Score: Coastal Carolina 49 – Texas State 14
We didn’t get it by much but we got it right. I can’t wait for the Chanticleers match up this weekend with Hugh Freeze and Liberty.
*Editor’s Note: Disregard Hugh Freeze and Liberty and insert BYU and Mitt Romney’s nephew*
3. Clemson -22.5 (vs. Pitt) – 💰WINNER💰
Final Score: Clemson 52 – Pitt 17
Looks like Dabo took out all of his anger towards Mike Norvell on the Panthers unfortunately.
4. Ohio State -27.5 (vs. Illinois) Saints -6 (vs. Broncos) – WINNER
Final Score: Saints 31 – Broncos 3
Covid stole an easy OSU cover from us but we stole an easy Saints cover from Vegas.
OSU vs Illinois cancelled. We’re pulling an audible: Saints -6 🚂 https://t.co/Ghj267Z7eF
— G. Wintergreen (@mitchmcthree) November 28, 2020
I’m trying to feel guilty about picking the Saints the night before they announced all the Broncos quarterbacks would miss the game. Honestly, I just can’t muster up that feeling. I haven’t kept an exact count of things like this occurring but let’s be serious at this point, it would be something like Trav 3 Vegas 1,000,000.
5. Seahawks -4.5 (vs. Eagles) – 💰WINNER💰
Final Score: Eagles 23 – Seahawks 17
Thank god we got this at the -4.5 as anyone betting right before the game missed this one at -6.5. I must have watched 100 videos of white guys with backwards hats pouting about this one. Shake it off Chad, I’m sure you haven’t maxed out daddy’s credit card just yet.
Richard Rodgers really just one-handed a Hail Mary 😳 @ImRichardRogers @Eagles
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) December 1, 2020
📺 #SEAvsPHI on ESPN pic.twitter.com/cl6PB02QaE
(It’s not that hard to remember, it’s 1-800-GAMBLER brotha.)
6. Guest Pick: Raiders -3 (vs. Falcons) – ❌LOSER❌
Final Score: Raiders 6 – Falcons 43
Anyone know the odds of missing a 50% chance bet 9 times in a row? That would be 1/512 chance or 0.2%.
Which has worse odds than the following:
Odds of Kim Kardashian winning an election: 1 in 501 (this is real – look it up)
Odds of dying from a food-borne illness: 1 in 500
Odds of dying from gun assault: 1 in 298
Odds of having identical twins: 1 in 333
Odds of being born with 11 fingers or toes: 1 in 500
Odds of being born with more than 2 nipples: 1 in 500
Odds of Falcons winning Super Bowl: 1 in 500
Just ask yourself how ridiculous it is that the Falcons would win the Super Bowl this year, and then attempt to comprehend that what we have pulled is off is less likely than that.
LSMLW: Maryland +340 (vs. Indiana) – 
LOSER
Final Score: Maryland 11 – Indiana 27
Nope. Just nope. The LSML teams are conversely turning into the locks of the week.
1:1 (+100) – LOSER
UCF (vs South Florida) W
NC State (vs Syracuse) W
Wyoming (vs UNLV) W
SMU (vs East Carolina) L
Coastal Carolina (vs Texas State) W
Florida (vs Kentucky) W
East Carolina decided to spoil the fun this week despite being a 12-point underdog. If anyone had East Carolina -34 at halftime, I’m guessing you won some big money.
What was I right about:
- Texas State’s defense
- Dabo cares about the spread
- Eagles vs the spread
- Seahawks vs the spread
What was I wrong about:
- Longhorns by 100
- Rams looking like NFC champions
- Third time being a charm for Matt Man
WEEK 13 WINNERS
This week’s winners are:
1. Texas A&M -6 (vs. Auburn)
Am I missing something here? Something tells me Vegas is begging us to take this line and I’ll gladly accept. No other reason other than I’ve watched Auburn get beaten up by good teams this year on multiple occasions. I’m guessing this will climb a bit but I’d still be tempted to take it up to 10 points.
2. Appalachian State vs. Louisiana-Lafayette UNDER 51.5
Feel like the Fun Belt is extra fun this year. Why do I think every over/under I bet on is a no brainer? (Keep in mind, I think I’m like 4-7 this year.) Both defenses are in the top third nationally with App State D currently 20th and Louisiana-Lafayette currently 41st. I think it’s possible neither team cracks 21 points. Overall, I am just all about App State and the Ragin’ Cajuns playing a meaningful December game.
3. OSU -21.5 (vs. Michigan State)
Why do I bet with my least favorite team every week? Honestly not sure but guessing they could be up 3 TD’s by halftime. Sure MSU looked good last week but did anyone catch them lose to Indiana and Iowa the two previous weeks by a combined score of 73-7. No Property Brother, no problem for the Buckeyes.
Not sure if Ryan Day is the best head coach, but he's definitely the best Property Brother pic.twitter.com/7FpqcCcLjD
— Korked Bats (@korkedbats) July 6, 2020
The Editor has been saying this for years but this guy really nailed this tweet.
4. Patriots -1 (vs. Chargers)
Why do I bet with my other least favorite team every week? The 5-6 Patriots just refuse to go away. I think we discuss this every other week, but until I see the “E” next to their name, I am maintaining they sneak into a 7th (or possibly 8th) playoff spot.
I was able to watch the Chargers last weekend for a full game and I can say the pieces are there but Anthony Lynn can’t seem to put it all together. The Chargers are currently third in total yards per game but sixteenth in total points per game. That would be difficult to comprehend until I witnessed their redzone offense this past weekend. This includes some variation of 1st down: run up the middle for 2 yards. 2nd down: incomplete fade to back corner. 3rd down: incomplete fade to other back corner. 4th down: GO FOR IT… Herbert is sacked.
Stat to know for this one after crunching some numbers in the lab: The Chargers are now 0-5 against the spread in the past 5 weeks. I see another scrappy Patriots win after last week’s scrappy win over the Cardinals.
5. Titans -5.5 (vs. Browns)
Let’s discuss Baker Mayfield real quick while we’re talking Browns. Definitely a “love him or hate him” kind of guy, but does anyone else continuously find themselves alternating which side they’re on multiple times throughout the day? The Progressive commercials during the pregame show: love him. His body language during the game: hate him. The casual “real cute” comment after the Jaguars pre-snap D-line shift: love him. The dance moves after beating the 1-10 Jags: hate him. The forced Ron Swanson skim milk quote: meh, don’t hate him.
Someone I do continue to love for whatever reasons is the Tennessee Titans. Sure I vowed to stop betting on them like three weeks ago, but they just throttled the Colts and they’re the AFC team with the best chance of beating the Chiefs. I can’t believe this but the 8-3 (!!!) Browns point differential is actually -21 (!!!) this year. The Titans have now covered 3 of their last 4, while the Browns are 4-7 against the spread this year.
Titans win by double digits and I’ll love Baker Mayfield again after another poor performance.
6. Guest Pick: Bills -2.5 (vs. 49ers)
We try to avoid a double-digit guest pick losing streak this week. Following a 3-game skid, Matt Man has voluntarily given up his pick to his daughter, Matt Woman.
SHE’S AT THE FIFTY! THE FORTY! THE THIRTY!
HEY-EY-EY-EY! LETS GO BUFFALO!
*Editor’s Note: There is 0.00% chance that Matt Woman misses her first career pick. That combined with the fact that I love this pick even without her expertise….this will be the bet that determines whether I sleep soundly on Sunday night or if my mind is racing thinking about the $100 I just blew on the Bills.*
Long Shot Moneyline of the Week:
Navy +410 (vs. Tulsa)
Tulsa sure looks like they can defend the spread but can they defend the triple option? They’ve had their last two games postponed so they’ve had time to practice but my gut says no. Navy wins on a late score in a shootout. UP$ET ALERT!
1:1
- Washington ML (vs. Stanford)
- Iowa ML (vs. Illinois)
- Chiefs ML (vs. Broncos)
- Packers ML (vs. Eagles)
+105
I would be stunned if this lost. I can’t believe this is +105.
Let’s keep things rolling in Week 13, Rack Pack. Enjoy an action-packed weekend of football.