You didn’t think I’d go quietly did you?
Last weekend’s championship game results left us with a Bucs vs Chiefs Super Bowl in Super Bowl LV. This was supposedly the third best odds back in September. (So much for drama during a pandemic…) I also read this is the fifth straight season where the preseason favorite to win the Super Bowl (Chiefs +400) lived up to expectations and made it to the big game with three of the past four winning it all. (Good thing we played 270+ games in a pandemic to figure this out.)
As for what side your boy will be on is pretty clear. Count me in as one of those suckers who felt like the Bills had a chance to win last week and was figuratively slapped in the face with how good the Chiefs are. Let’s not forget these guys lost one game all season where they tried.
The Bucs have to do two things to win this game which are mutually exclusive:
- Score 30 points
- Cover Travis Kelce with one person and cover Tyreek Hill with one person
#1 is possible, but as I witnessed in the Bills game, #2 is not. The Mahomes and Kelce connection is truly one of a kind. Watching Matt Milano (who seemed to do a pretty good job all season in coverage) try to run with Kelce was painful. Mahomes’ ability to throw the ball to a spot when Kelce isn’t even looking yet makes the connection virtually unstoppable. And after watching Tyreek Hill make All-Pro corner Tre’Davious White stumble around like he just chugged a beer playing dizzy bat, I’m convinced no one on earth can run with Tyreke Hill.
Do I like the Chiefs -3? Yes, but let’s not forget a common trend with the Chiefs: falling behind and coming back to win. The Chiefs have been losing at some point in 6 of their past 7 games and 8 out of their past 10. Keep in mind: they always seem to find a way to win, but as we all know by now, they do not always cover.
So what does that mean for you? While betting $20 on the Chiefs moneyline wins you like $11-12 at kickoff, waiting to place a live bet when the Chiefs are losing can win us more dough. Lower risk and/or high reward. Count me in as someone who’s happy to take their chances with the Chiefs falling behind in this game and ultimately coming back to win. Keep in mind AFC teams have won AND covered 5 of the last 6 Super Bowls and the favorite is 35-19 straight up.
WINNER$:
The lab was a little dusty but the good news is everything still appears to be calibrated, so let’s crunch some numbers.
1. Chris Godwin over 5.5 catches (-125)
Bruce Arians knows the Bucs need to score 30 points to have a shot. My gut said Tom Brady probably throws the ball at least 40 times or more during this game, and it turns out that Tom Brady’s passing attempts prop bet is currently set at O/U 40.5. That’s a shit ton of passes and subsequently a shit ton of completions. Let’s assume we’re within plus or minus 5 attempts, and Brady completes his season average of 65.7% of his passes. That puts Tom’s completions right around 23.3 completions to 29.6. (Note: Vegas has his completions O/U splitting this at 25.5). Let’s assume the best case here and say he’s around 27-29 completions. Again, that’s a lot of completions, and the question is: who will catch all these passes? Let’s take a look at the candidates here (aka Bucs WR catches prop bets) and tell me who stands out.
Ronald Jones O/U 0.5 (-130)
- RoJo has 0 receptions in the last three games with only one target.
- Prediction: 0
Cameron Brate O/U 2.5 (-130)
- I always forget about this guy, but two grabs sounds spot on.
- Prediction: 2
Gronk O/U 2.5 (-105)
- Let’s face it, Gronk is a teenager in a grandfather’s body. And he just blocks.
- Prediction: 2
Antonio Brown O/U 3.5 (-120)
- The lone wildcard, could be anywhere from 0-8 so let’s go 4
- Prediction 4
Lenny Fournette O/U 3.5 (-110)
- He has 14 grabs on 17 targets in the last 3 games so let’s go with 4 here as well
- Prediction: 4
Mike Evans O/U 4.5 (-105)
- Caught 7+ balls AND 1 ball in the same number of games: 3. Best case here 2 catches a half.
- Prediction: 4
Let’s throw in 3 grabs for people we wouldn’t recognize in public like Scottie Miller and Tyler Johnson, and that brings the total to 19 predicted receptions. So who is left to catch the remaining 8-10 passes? DUN DUH NUH NUH!
Chris Godwin O/U 5.5 (-125)
- Godwin has become Brady’s favorite target bar none. He had 8 catches for 97 yards in the Week 12 matchup and I expect an ever bigger game this week.
2. Roughing the passer call to be committed (+170)
Between Ndamokong Suh, Tyrann Mathieu, and Chris Jones I’ll just take my chances here.
Chris Jones threw a punch at Jon Feliciano.
— Dan Fetes (@danfetes) January 25, 2021
No call. #BillsMafia #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/Noo2MuW1VY
(Yes, I’m still salty.)
3. Chiefs over 28.5 (-135)
Chiefs have scored over 31+ points in more than half their games this year. They scored 27 points in 2½ quarters last time these guys played before taking their foot off the gas. We can cry together if they score 28.
4. Chiefs Moneyline and OVER 41.5 (-120)
There’s a reason the O/U on this game is so high – the people expect some fireworks. Teasing this total more than my high school girlfriend teased me at the movie theatre and parlaying it with the Chiefs moneyline gets the jollies going just enough to make me not want to wait around in case the Chiefs climax early like they did in the last matchup. (Now that’s a sentence.)
5. Shortest TD under 1.5 yards (-165)
The down judge will be a female for the first time, but this game won’t be the first time we watch a referee sprinting across the field from the sideline with (only) one hand raised indicating the ball should be spotted at the one inch line. I don’t know how often this happens, but it feels like it occurs in 80-85% of football games I watch. It is often not relevant – but in this scenario it will be – when the team scores on the next play anyways. The odds on this should be -1000.
6. Ronald Jones OVER 8.5 rush attempts (-105)
He’s had at least 9 rushing attempts in the last 7 games. Somehow I’ll get this wrong but seems like too good of odds to pass up.
Longshot prop bet: Pat Mahomes Anytime TD (+300)
Super Bowl Longshot Parlay (+2000)
- Pat Mahomes First TD
- Chris Godwin over 5 receptions
- Total points over 41.5
- Pat Mahomes 2+ passing TDs
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В этой среде можно найти как официальные, так и нелегальные сайты, включая магазины и другие сервисы.
Одной из таких онлайн-площадок была BlackSprut, что занималась реализации разнообразной продукции, среди которых противозаконные товары.
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Эти ресурсы часто функционируют на биткойны для повышения анонимности операций.
Тем не менее, власти регулярно ликвидируют основные нелегальные рынки, хотя на их месте появляются другие торговые точки.