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Snaker’s Dozen: CFB Week 16

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I TOLD YOU I WAS DUE! I TOLD YOU I WAS DUE! 

CUE THE SoCal FRATERNITY BROS!!!

(DISCLAIMER – In case my joke isn’t landing, I’ve been telling you I was due to hit for BIG UNITS for about a month now)

And finally. Finally a week where I have more money than I started with after the dust settles. When this blog began I told you that I wasn’t here to F-around and break even week after week. I run this ship in a boom-or-bust fashion. The Snaker’s Dozen is a high volatile stock. And so far that has held true. I pretty much get demolished every single week. And this week I managed to mitigate some of the damage. 

LAST WEEK’S THOUGHTS:

  • Georgia -13 @ Missouri // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // WIN
  • Wake Forest +2.5 @ Louisville // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
  • UNC +3 @ Miami // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // WIN
  • Minnesota +10.5 @ Nebraska // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // WIN
  • Illinois @ Northwestern OVER 39.5 // RISK 1.3 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
  • Oklahoma State (-200) @ Baylor // RISK 2 TO WIN 1 // WIN
  • Navy +7.5 @ Army // RISK 1.15 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
  • Houston @ Memphis +5 // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 2 // WIN
  • Duke +5 @ Florida State // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
  • LSU @ Florida OVER 67.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // WIN
  • Virginia @ Virginia Tech UNDER 63 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // WIN
  • Stanford -3 @ Oregon State // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // PUSH
  • UNLV @ Hawaii OVER 57 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // WIN
  • PARLAY #1 // RISK 2.5 TO WIN 2.3 // WIN
    • Michigan State @ Penn State (-650 ML) W
    • Michigan State @ Penn State OVER 44.5 W
  • PARLAY #2 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 2.4 // CANCELLED
    • Cal @ Washington State +3.5
    • Cal @ Washington State OVER 54
  • PARLAY #3 // RISK 0.5 TO WIN 1.6 // LOSS
    • USC @ UCLA (+120 ML) L
    • USC @ UCLA OVER 62 W
  • PARLAY #4 // RISK 2 TO WIN 20 // WIN
    • Georgia (-530 ML) @ Missouri W
    • Michigan State @ Penn State (-640 ML) W
    • Illinois @ Northwestern (-575 ML) W
    • Oklahoma State (-210 ML) @ Baylor W
    • Houston @ Memphis (+170 ML) W
    • Stanford (-140 ML) @ Oregon State W
  • PARLAY #5 // RISK 1.5 TO WIN 6.2 // LOSS
    • LSU @ Florida OVER 68.5 W
    • Auburn (-240 ML) @ Mississippi State W
    • San Diego State @ BYU OVER 47 L
  • PARLAY #6 // RISK 0.5 TO WIN 44.4 // LOSS
    • Wake Forest (+110 ML) @ Louisville L
    • Minnesota (+295 ML) @ Nebraska W
    • Houston @ Memphis (+170 ML) W
    • Wisconsin @ Iowa (+110 ML) W
    • UNLV @ Hawaii OVER 58.5 W
  • NET GAIN: +24.15 UNITS

Look at all of that green!  ✅✅✅👀

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In a bizarre turn of events…I was correct/almost correct about nearly every single game that I bet. All of those GD games up there and I was dead wrong on only 2. Wake Forest got whooped by Louisville…and Duke got whipped by FSU. That’s it. 

In terms of noteworthy bets, we have to talk about a few games:

 Navy 0 – Army 15

Again, if you didn’t bet this game or attempt to watch any of this game then you have major issues. I’m not going to go as far as to call you a communist, but I’m also not going to be doing any trust falls into your arms.

I was fully aware of the success rate that the under has had in the last 40 years, but I really wanted to pick a side here. I chose Navy this year and that’s usually all it takes for me to want to hop on their website and sign up for a training session with the Naval Academy. Fuck Army! Navy for life! This game really gets the juices flowing. As far as the play on the field goes – Navy sucks. I’m still pissed about Navy getting the ball down to the 1 yard line and getting their shit stuffed 17 times.

I still think they scored on both 3rd and 4th down, but apparently the refs didn’t. So infuriating.

Maybe I’ll just bet Army next year…let’s see how much you like that, Navy. Why don’t you come and recruit me back to your side? JK please don’t. I always hated that day in high school when you guys came into my class uninvited and tried to dog us all into joining.

LSU 37 – Florida 34

If you would have told me that LSU vs. Florida would be in contention for ‘game of the year’ this summer I would have said “damn I can’t wait to watch that.” 

If you would have told me that LSU vs. Florida would be in contention for ‘game of the year’ 10 minutes before kickoff I would have said  “how many beers have you had today, and don’t say less than 10?” 

My god what a game this was. You could kinda see the writing on the wall with Coach O and the boys just doing enough to hang around the entire game. Kyle Trask was tossing picks in between 40 yard completions and wouldn’t you know it, Florida ended up with 600 yards of offense and lost. Time and time again we see the worse team win games like this because they win the turnover battle. (Somebody forward this game tape to Penn State’s quarterback please.)

And then obviously I have to mention the fact that a kid throwing a shoe cost Florida the game. And yes, I’m saying he COST THEM THE GAME. No need to sugarcoat this kid’s mistake with that “well it was only one play” bullshit. Anybody with a brain and two eyeballs who was watching this game could see the momentum shifting and the dominos falling for Trask’s offense to drive down the field and win it. The rabbit was catching the tortoise and then this happened:

The only other thing I can compare that to in terms of dumbassness and selfishness is the Mississippi State guy pretending to piss like a dog in the 2019 Egg Bowl.

So we have Marco Wilson from UF and Elijah Moore on MSU. And wouldn’t you know it… 

I wonder what’s in the water in Fort Lauderdale that makes you turn into a toddler when the game hits crunch-time. “Great play by me. This feels like a good time to do some unnecessary shit that will tie one arm behind my team’s back as we try to finish out this close game.”

UNLV 21 – Hawaii 38

I spent a lot of time on Florida-LSU so let’s keep this one short and sweet. Here’s the take-home message: If you aren’t betting irresponsible amounts of money on Hawaii to cover or Hawaii overs during late night kickoffs then you have not lived. These plays are turning into a gold standard for Trav and me and I hate to jinx it…but I swear to god these SOBs win more often than they lose.

For the entire first half of this game we both watched it on a 3rd screen muted while we prioritized other ongoing games. At one point I had made a mental note that a lot of huge plays were seemingly occurring in this game and I asked Trav “if he was keeping eyes on the Hawaii game?”

His response – “I’m not paying close attention but every time I look up the defensive team is streaking with the football and pointing towards someone.”

Idk how many turnovers happened in this game that were actually upheld but we must have saw 50 instances of a guy picking up a loose ball and sprinting with a caravan while pointing. And that’s all happening between midnight and 2am est. If that doesn’t get your juices flowing, then why are you even reading this shit?

So moving on………should we talk Parlays?

Let’s start with the obvious…Parlay #4 you sweet sweet son of a bitch. Parlay #4 hits for me at 10:1. You read that right, 10:1! I’ve been flirting with these longshots all year long and finally I reeled in a big one.

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The best part about that parlay was that I didn’t even have to sweat a single early game. Georgia, PSU, NW, OkSt, Memphis were all Ea$y money. 

So I basically got 10:1 odds on a Stanford moneyline. And that’s when the sweating started. I never even considered considering the consideration of hedging this damn thing. I held onto my nuts for 59 minutes and 40 seconds of action and I didn’t get to take a breath until there was 20 seconds left when Oregon State’s QB fumbled the ball inside game tying field goal territory.

Now with all of that being said, am I allowed to complain about Parlay #5? Because I left 7.7 units out on the field when San Diego State decided to dick around at BYU’s goal line on two separate occasions. Needing only a touchdown to cover the Over 47, San Diego pulled off the following sequences which resulted in two TODs:

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YA DONE MESSED UP, JOR-JORDON!

And while we’re talking parlays, I’d be remiss to avoid mentioning that the ‘Cheat Carroll Why Not Us Parlay’ was dangerously close to hitting. I was a +110 Wake Forest (who was favored by kickoff) away from nailing a +8880 parlay. What a week.

The bottom line is I had a +24 unit week and I’m still down HEAVY. And the bad news is we are running out of time. So that leaves us with one question – Can we put together 2 big weeks in a row?

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CFB WEEK 16 (CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK) WINNERS

A couple of my pals from school (shoutout Chuck and Log) showed me this video way back in the day because they went to to the high school where this guy coached. And if I remember correctly they told me he was fired from the school due to stealing money out of the treasury fund or something like that (upset of the year is him not being fired for breaking Danny’s ribs). 

So to this day I wonder if this guy is in prison or if he is simply at a new school beating the piss out of some future D-3 linebacker whose head isn’t in the game because he’s thinking about his biology test tomorrow.

Regardless – it’s still my favorite football coach video ever. Watch it from start to finish if you haven’t already.

RULE CHECK!

The Rules of Sports Gambling by Snaker’s Dozen:

Rule #1 – You are due.
Rule #2 – See Rule #1.

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Oregon @ USC -3 // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 2

Color me confused at this line being 3 points. I know it’s a weird game because USC is on a short week and they just wasted a couple days prepping for Washington. And I know it’s standard procedure for the Pac 12 to cannibalize itself. And I also know that I never wanted to be in the position of taking classically overrated USC to cover anything this season.

But now that I’ve given you 18 reasons why I shouldn’t do this – I’m taking USC. Because Oregon sucks. And because they cost me $600 a few weeks ago and I haven’t forgiven them yet. Plus….I gotta admit that Slovis guy is pretty good.

Ball State @ Buffalo OVER 67.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1

I admittedly don’t know much about these teams, but I know that every single week Buffalo manages to score 40 and Ball State manages to score 30. So this is easy math, easy money.

Nebraska @ Rutgers +7.5 // RISK 1.4 TO WIN 1

If I know one thing about the Big Ten this year (I don’t), it’s that Rutgers can keep it close. 

As a Penn State fan, I’m rather annoyed that Rutgers has found a way to become respectable in their first season with Schiano back. It seems like just yesterday we used to be able to sarcastically yell “Bring on Rutgers!!” And now I don’t want any part of Rutgers on any given week. 

Northwestern +21.5 vs. Ohio State // RISK 1.2 TO WIN 1

Damn this feels stupid but I have no choice but to pull the trigger on NW getting all of those points. I assume the reason the number is that high is because the expectation is Ohio State will attempt to score style points here. But I’m not so sure that Ohio State will be in the position to worry about style points…have you seen NW’s defense? 

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Northwestern (+850 ML) vs. Ohio State // RISK 0.6 TO WIN 5.1

Why not? Why the hell not? It’s 2020. Anything can happen.

(Also there is a slight chance that OSU has major issues on defense and NW’s defense can slow down OSU’s offense…slight chance)

Oklahoma (-240 ML) vs. Iowa State // RISK 2.4 TO WIN 1

I’m not seeing a world where Iowa State beats Oklahoma twice in one season. I’m of the opinion that if Penn State and Iowa State lined up on the field tomorrow you’d see an absolute dogfight to the final whistle. That’s where my opinion on Iowa State lies. And at some point, a bunch of 2-star rejects at Ames, Iowa aren’t going to be able to hang with 5-star guys from Texas.

I think -240 is enough value to go with the moneyline and prevent the risk of Oklahoma winning by a field goal.

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Ames, IA...Where the best football players all want to come play

Texas A&M @ Tennessee OVER 51 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1

I would assume Texas A&M will pound Tennessee, but I feel more confident that this over will hit. This is the old principle play of ‘if one team can hit the over by themselves then you should take the over.’

I mean let’s get serious – Tennessee gave up points to everybody and their sister last week.

Louisiana +3.5 @ Coastal Carolina // RISK 1.15 TO WIN 1

It’s really, really, really hard to go undefeated in an entire season. If there was a game that Coastal was going to lose outside of that spontaneous BYU matchup, it’s this one. Coastal won round 1 of this matchup back in October with a last second FG in a game where Louisiana was favored by 9 points. 

For the sake of avoiding another UCF self-proclaimed-champion situation, let’s hope Louisiana wins this time around. But I think they cover for sure. 

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Ole Miss @ LSU UNDER 79.5 // RISK 1.3 TO WIN 1

Stupid number. You need a 50-30 or 40-40 game to make that happen. All of the Barstool-bro meathead type of guys will hammer the over in this one so I’ll snag the free value on the under. I’ve said this about several games with ridiculous totals this year and it applies here as well: Even if this game is 50 to 60, I won’t feel dumb if I bet the under. It’s 100% the smarter play.

Ole Miss (-135 ML) @ LSU // RISK 1.35 TO WIN 1

I like the Lane Train in this spot to pick up a decent win that he can point to in his first year. I’m not sure how impressive it really is to beat Coach O at this point, but whatever. Also this should be a letdown spot after LSU won that big game against UF (which they did not deserve to win).

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Clemson -8 vs. Notre Dame // RISK 4 TO WIN 2.5

After that fluke of a victory in the first matchup between these two teams I pledged to win all of my money back during the rematch. Well, the rematch is here. And I guess Vegas knows that people like me had that plan in mind because they’ve got this line set at -10.5. I’ll be brutally honest here – I want nothing to do with a Clemson -10.5 bet against Notre Dame. 

Notre dame is 1 for 1000 in big games, but something about this year feels a little concerning. I’m not sure how much of a difference Trevor Lawrence would have made in that first game. So to take that OT victory by Notre Dame and then essentially say this game is 10.5 points different is tough for me.

That being said, that first game WAS a fluke. Notre Dame played literally the greatest game in program history. Definitely the greatest game of Ian Book’s life. So water should find its level here. I’m going to move the line a few points and put some decent dough down.

Let’s hope we see an IRATE Brian Kelly on Saturday.

Stanford @ UCLA -6 // RISK 1.4 TO WIN 1

Oregon State’s 19th string quarterback looked like Joe Montana against Stanford last week. UCLA’s QB is legitimately good. I don’t see any reason why UCLA doesn’t win this game with a comfortable margin. 

Dorian Thompson-Robinson aka DTR aka Down-to-Rage

Michigan State @ Maryland OVER 50.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1

Michigan State’s QB just proved he can beat up on Penn State’s D which should be about the equivalent of Maryland’s D. And it’s about time Tua’s brother pads his stats with another shitty opponent. OVER.

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Arizona State -7 @ Oregon State // RISK 1.2 TO WIN 1

Herm Edwards and the boys keep it rolling and win this one comfortably. 

PARLAY #1 // RISK 0.5 TO WIN 7.6

  • Ball State @ Buffalo (-570 ML)
  • UAB (+170 ML) @ Marshall
  • Nebraska @ Rutgers (+210 ML)
  • Oregon @ USC (-155 ML)

Nothing to see here. Just a little Friday night parlay to get the juices flowing heading into the weekend. 

PARLAY #2 // RISK 1.5 TO WIN 2.5

  • Air Force (-145 ML) @ Army
  • Air Force @ Army UNDER 40

I should just put 10 units on Air Force ML because I am positive they are winning this game. But I had FOMO from the Army-Navy game by not jumping in on the ‘sure-thing’ service academy under. So why not make a huge mistake and jump in on this game’s under?

PARLAY #3 // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 2.6

  • Illinois @ Penn State (-700 ML)
  • Illinois @ Penn State OVER 52

I’ve got deja vu. I just did this last week against Michigan State and now they are giving it to me again? Sometimes money really does grow on trees.

The explanation – Penn State’s defense sucks. Penn State will try to score a bunch of points in the 2nd half to make themselves look good.

PARLAY #4 // RISK 1.3 TO WIN 1

  • Alabama (-850 ML) vs. Florida
  • Alabama vs. Florida UNDER 77

I don’t have any strong feelings on this game so naturally I might as well parlay it. I feel like everyone on earth believes this game will go over so I’m just going to try and fade the public with an Under 77.

That’s 11 touchdowns. Is this game really going to feature 11 touchdowns? (It definitely could)

PARLAY #5 // RISK 2 TO WIN 5

  • Oregon @ USC (-155 ML)
  • Northwestern vs. Ohio State (-1500 ML)
  • Oklahoma (-240 ML) vs. Iowa State
  • Clemson (-380 ML) vs. Notre Dame
  • Alabama (-850 ML) vs. Florida

I’m getting +250 odds on all of the Power 5 games going chalk? Yeah, sign me up.

PARLAY #6 // RISK 2 TO WIN 4

  • Oklahoma (-240 ML) vs. Iowa State
  • Air Force (-145 ML) vs. Army
  • Clemson (-380 ML) vs. Notre Dame

Please don’t let me down you f*$#@.

PARLAY #7 // RISK 0.6 TO WIN 31

  • Ball State vs. Buffalo OVER 64.5
  • Texas A&M @ Tennessee OVER 48.5
  • Illinois @ Penn State OVER 49
  • Michigan State @ Maryland OVER 48.5
  • Tulsa @ Cincinnati OVER 43.5
  • Arizona State @ Oregon State OVER 53.5
  • Air Force @ Army UNDER 40
  • Clemson vs. Notre Dame UNDER 63

CHEAT! CHEAT! CHEAT! CHEAT! CHEAT!

That’s all, folks. Let’s try and create another 20+ unit week (that way I’ll be breaking even on the year lol).

LAST WEEK: +24.2 units

SEASON: -21.6 units

(SEASON RECORD: 48-80-3)

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