I look like that dog with the house on fire meme week in and week out at this point. By the time we finish bowl season I’m going to be down 100 units. I’m not joking. BY THE TIME WE FINISH BOWL SEASON I’M GOING TO BE DOWN 100 UNITS!!!
Let’s Recap.
LAST WEEK’S THOUGHTS:
- UL Lafayette @ App State UNDER 53 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // WIN
Boise State @ UNLV OVER 60.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1// CANCELLED- Memphis +1.5 @ Tulane // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 2 // LOSS
- Nebraska @ Purdue (-130 ML) // RISK 1.3 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
- Oklahoma State -6 @ TCU // RISK 1 TO WIN 1.6 // LOSS
- Penn State @ Rutgers OVER 54.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
Liberty +7 @ Coastal Carolina // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 2// CANCELLEDLiberty (+220 ML) @ Coastal Carolina // RISK 1 TO WIN 2.2// CANCELLED- Boston College (+195 ML) @ Virginia // RISK 1 TO WIN 1.95 // LOSS
- West Virginia @ Iowa State UNDER 49 // RISK 1.05 TO WIN 1 // WIN
- Oregon @ Cal +10 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // WIN
- Clemson -13 (1H) @ Virginia Tech // RISK 1 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
Vanderbilt @ Georgia -40 // RISK 1 TO WIN 1.4// CANCELLED- Alabama @ LSU OVER 68 // RISK 2.3 TO WIN 2 // WIN
- Miami @ Duke OVER 60.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
- PARLAY #1 // RISK 1.6 TO WIN 1.9 // WIN
- Louisiana Tech (-130 ML) @ North Texas W
- Air Force (-420 ML) @ Utah State W
- PARLAY #2 // RISK 1 TO WIN 2.65 // LOSS
- Nebraska @ Purdue -2 L
Nebraska @ Purdue UNDER 61.5 L
- Nebraska @ Purdue -2 L
- PARLAY #3 // RISK 3 TO WIN 2.4 // WIN
- Texas A&M (-250 ML) @ Auburn W
- Texas (-360 ML) @ Kansas State W
- PARLAY #4 // RISK 2 TO WIN 2 // LOSS
- Air Force (-420 ML) @ Utah State W
- Texas (-360 ML) @ Kansas State W
- Florida (-800 ML) @ Tennessee W
- Clemson (-1400 ML) @ Virginia Tech W
- Rice @ Marshall (-2000 ML) L
- PARLAY #5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 5.6 // LOSS
- Air Force (-420 ML) @ Utah State W
- Texas (-360 ML) @ Kansas State W
Buffalo (-400) @ Ohio- Oklahoma State (-135 ML) @ TCU L
- Nebraska @ Purdue (-130 ML) L
- PARLAY #6 // RISK 1.8 TO WIN 11 // LOSS
- Miami @ Duke OVER 60.5 L
Liberty +8 @ Coastal Carolina- Oklahoma State -2.5 @ TCU L
- PARLAY #7 // RISK 0.5 TO WIN 85.3 // LOSS
Liberty (+260 ML) @ Coastal Carolina- Boston College (+195 ML) @ Virginia L
- Indiana (+405 ML) @ Wisconsin W
- Georgia Tech (+220 ML) @ NC State L
- NET LOSS: -5.8 UNITS
I’m actually amazed that all of those loses only cost me 5.8 units. In a weird twist of fate I think a couple of my parlays actually saved me. Essentially I went 5-6 in the shit with realistic odds and 1-6 in shit with unrealistic odds. You sensing a theme here?
It’s amazing how despite the fact that I bet on 50 games every weekend it only takes one or two teams to shit the bed and cost me a fortune. Marshall losing to Rice after I slapped that into Parlay #4 at -2000 is comical. I can’t recall another time where a -2000 favorite got shutout and lost by 20. At least I knew it was coming!
Yep, I deserved that. That was a ESPN ‘The Bear’ move. Just a complete bitchass “oh let me throw this huge favorite into my parlay for no reason other than to make it a 5-teamer.”
After starting off the weekend up substantially with Parlay #1 hitting Thursday and the App State under hitting on Friday, I was feeling pretty good Saturday morning. Then I was greeted with the usual noon-game-spiral that I have become accustomed to. You think losing is fun? Well try losing 5 or 6 in a row and watching your playable balance money dwindle away. That’ll really get your jollies going.
I actually don’t have too much to complain about for last week. All of my losses are pretty fair losses. At the end of the day I was wrong on Purdue beating Nebraska about 4 different times. My mistake. I should have referred to the golden rule of the B1G.
And then like I previously mentioned – I only have myself to blame for the Marshall vs. Rice debacle. Although I wouldn’t mind jumping on a zoom call with QB Grant Wells for a few minutes, whoever the hell that is.
Me: “Hey bud you don’t know me and I don’t know you. Quite frankly I haven’t even watched one second of you or your football team this year. That being said – you owe me like 50 bucks. So just venmo it over to me whenever you get a chance.”
Him:
Lastly – for the sake of full transparency – I was DANGEROUSLY close to retiring this entire Snaker’s Dozen segment.
Did I win by the skin of my teeth? Yes. Does that make me incorrect? No. Ea$y money. Snaker’s Dozen lives on!
CFB WEEK 15 WINNERS
All right this is my new favorite part of this blog. Fire em up Coach C you goddam maniac!
Should we revisit the rules? Why the heck not? Let’s revisit the rules.
The Rules of Sports Gambling by Snaker’s Dozen:
Rule #1 – You are due.
Rule #2 – See Rule #1.
Georgia -13 @ Missouri // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
Take a future on Georgia to win the 2021 NCAAF Championship the moment the bookmakers let you get your hands on it. I’m loving the way next year is shaping up led by JT Daniels. Long live the Dawgs.
Wake Forest +2.5 @ Louisville // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
There is entirely too much negative shit going on at Louisville for them to be favored in this game. Coach openly shopping other jobs. Opt outs. Big season expectations demolished.
I was tempted to take Wake ML, but then also tempted to buy a point and take Wake +3.5. Let’s just take the 2.5 free points and grab a quick unit here. No need to overthink it.
UNC +3 @ Miami // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
This Miami hype has lasted about 6 weeks longer than it normally does in every single season since Ray Lewis played. In a similar way that I’m due to start winning, they are due to start losing.
I don’t know what Mack Brown is doing to build this UNC so quickly (very obvious sign of cheating), but the Tar Heels are a good football team. They can win this game outright.
Minnesota +10.5 @ Nebraska // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
Not exactly sure what happened last week in the Nebraska-Purdue game, but last time I checked Nebraska still sucks. If being good in 1970 played any factor into being good in 2020 then maybe some of these lines involving Nebraska would make more sense to me.
And yes I know Minnesota also sucks. But I am willing to buy a loss here if it puts a frown on PJ Fleck’s face.
Illinois @ Northwestern OVER 39.5 // RISK 1.3 TO WIN 1
This must be one of those scenarios where I am missing a critical piece of information. I’m at a loss for why NW can’t score 40 points on Illinois. And maybe Illinois even manages to score a touchdown themselves.
(Obviously the piece of information I am missing is that Illinois has a good defense. And if it’s not that, this game will be “pissing rain,” as Trav likes to say.)
Oklahoma State (-200) @ Baylor // RISK 2 TO WIN 1
Oklahoma State is a pretty good team. They are not going to drop 2 games in a row as favorites. And they sure as shit aren’t going to drop two in a row when one of the teams they are playing is Baylor. I like the mullet over the fake houseflipper. ALL DAY LONG.
Navy +7.5 @ Army // RISK 1.15 TO WIN 1
If you are regular sports bettor and you don’t touch this game then I question your patriotism. I’ll take Navy +7.5 just for the sake of rooting for a close game.
Houston @ Memphis +5 // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 2
My favorite play of the week and second place isn’t close. I love Memphis in this spot. I actually had to control myself from putting like 7 units on it and tanking my entire weekend on one game.
Give me Brady White and that future 1st round NFL draft pick kicker over a bunch of tank/opt-out kids at Houston and give me those 5 free points along with it.
Duke +5 @ Florida State // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
Principle play. I don’t care that the names of the teams playing in this game are Duke and Florida State. Based on names alone FSU should be favored by 10. But the bottom line is FSU in its current state doesn’t deserve to be favored against anyone. This team was reeling even before they started cancelling games for “safety.”
And while we are on the subject can I give a quick shoutout to that meathead of a basketball coach down at Alabama for calling out Coach K? I have no idea who this guy is. He may be a total hardo, but he’s 1000% accurate in his Coach K analysis.
🔥🔥🔥NATE OATS 🔥🔥🔥
— Roger Hoover (@Roger_Hoover) December 10, 2020
"We 100% should be playing basketball." pic.twitter.com/QoHbML9Lwu
LSU @ Florida OVER 67.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
I’m sitting here chuckling to myself about the combination of Heisman-hungry Kyle Trask vs. whatever the hell Bo Pelini is attempting to do on defense this year. And Florida’s defense is nothing to write home about. Honestly wouldn’t be shocked if there ends up being 100+ points scored in this one.
Virginia @ Virginia Tech UNDER 63 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
Full disclosure I placed this bet at like 2am on Tuesday night and I haven’t the slightest clue what my rationale was. I guess Virginia Tech’s offense has really stalled the last few weeks. I can’t say the same for Virginia. So again…no clue what made me place this bet.
Stanford -3 @ Oregon State // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
Stanford started this year as a complete dumpster fire, but is now showing signs of being the stereotypical tough-out Stanford team of the past. It’s hard to get a read on Oregon State, but I’m still mad at them for beating Oregon and costing me $600. So go Cardinal!
(Shoutout to Stanford for the dumbest mascot of all time and this being one of the only few weeks during the entire year that it sort of looks normal on the sideline)
UNLV @ Hawaii OVER 57 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
List of things more fun than staying up until 2am with a buzz watching the Hawaii game and cheering for points:
PARLAY #1 // RISK 2.5 TO WIN 2.3
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Michigan State @ Penn State (-650 ML)
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Michigan State @ Penn State OVER 44.5
I had to have pledged to never bet on Penn State again in one of these blogs, right? I’m going to go ahead and break that rule with this game. If James Franklin can’t come through with a -650 ML victory over a rebuilding MSU program then I demand an immediate refund of my season tickets for next year.
PARLAY #2 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 2.4
Cal @ Washington State +3.5
Cal @ Washington State OVER 54
I’m not sure how many times I have to lose money betting on Washington State before I learn my lesson. I’m back on em again this week. I think I’m just addicted to rooting for Travmans doppleganger.
PARLAY #3 // RISK 0.5 TO WIN 1.6
USC @ UCLA (+120 ML)
USC @ UCLA OVER 62
Honestly I just need to put a little action on this game in order to make sure I pay attention to it. This should be the Pac12 game of the year. And I’m a little shocked at how good of a chance the oddsmakers are giving Chip Kelly and the boys. I will be personally rooting for UCLA to win and to see some high-scoring action. Hence my bets.
Also – Clay Helton and Chip Kelly are pretty much the same person, right?
PARLAY #4 // RISK 2 TO WIN 20
Georgia (-530 ML) @ Missouri
Michigan State @ Penn State (-640 ML)
Illinois @ Northwestern (-575 ML)
Oklahoma State (-210 ML) @ Baylor
Houston @ Memphis (+170 ML)
Stanford (-140 ML) @ Oregon State
I need a miracle to salvage this season’s losses. This would be a start…
PARLAY #5 // RISK 1.5 TO WIN 6.2
LSU @ Florida OVER 68.5
Auburn (-240 ML) @ Mississippi State
San Diego State @ BYU OVER 47
I’m sure it won’t happen – but in a hypothetical situation where both of those overs hit and Bo Nix has a shitty game and Auburn loses I will lose my mind. In fact, if Auburn loses this game then consider them dead to me for next season.
PARLAY #6 // RISK 0.5 TO WIN 44.4
Wake Forest (+110 ML) @ Louisville
Minnesota (+295 ML) @ Nebraska
Houston @ Memphis (+170 ML)
Wisconsin @ Iowa (+110 ML)
UNLV @ Hawaii OVER 58.5
TAKE EM AWAY CHEAT CARROLL!
That’s all, folks. I’m actually looking forward to this madness on Saturday. It can’t get too much worse, right?
LAST WEEK: -5.8 units
SEASON: -45.7 units
(SEASON RECORD: 38-73-2)