Another big week for my bookie! I have blown past the disappointment stage and I’m now at the point where I’m genuinely curious to see how this plays out. I’m not even angry, just more-so interested to see if the incredible losing pace I’m on holds. I hope historians use this information I am sharing with you all and publish it in textbooks on why gambling is a bad idea.
My gut tells me that I’ve been slightly unlucky (never forget when ASU cost me those 21 units), but it’s not like the ball hasn’t bounced my way as well on a few occasions (see the Coastal Carolina recap below). I think this is an interesting case study because it’s not like I’m picking out my favorite plays of the week and putting a responsible amount of money down. In fact, I’m doing the exact opposite. I’m betting everything in sight that I like at first glance. Who woulda thought – this seems to be the best way to lose money!
I have an old acquaintance who happens be on the money collecting side of this sports gambling thing, and I’ll never forget the best piece of advice he ever gave me: “Parlays are for suckers. That’s where we make most of our money.”
Yet each week I come in hot and break the cardinal rule with a plethora of parlays parleys. You know why? Because it’s fun. So at the end of the day – always remember that if you are losing, you are simply paying for entertainment (spoiler alert – if you are doing this for fun then you are going to lose).
And keep in mind there’s idiots out there who actually do this for a living and try to make 10 dollars a week. Check out these plays from that bum on College Gameday, The Bear:
Is he serious with that parlay? A -227 parlay featuring a -7000 Alabama and a -7000 Clemson? I might have to bring back Bitch of the Week and just put Bear on it every week. The funniest part about that parlay is that the moment the Clemson game got postponed he suddenly needed the other 4 teams to win just to get his money back. And he deserves it. Just FYI – I don’t know shit about this stuff, but please don’t take advice from a guy tossing -7000 teams in his parlays. You don’t have to do this for a living to understand risk/reward. I was enjoying myself on Saturday just thinking about this guy sitting on his couch sweating out a -1200 Ohio State in the 4th quarter to avoid losing his $100.
And that list of “underdogs” he gave out….LOL. Squaresville, USA. What did he do, just look at the 4 underdogs with the best odds of winning and write them all down? Live a little man. Toss a +450 Liberty out there from time to time.
LAST WEEK’S THOUGHTS:
- PARLAY #1 // RISK 0.7 TO WIN 3 // LOSS
- Toledo MONEYLINE @ Eastern Michigan W
- Northern Illinois @ Ball State UNDER 62 W
- Western Michigan @ Central Michigan MONEYLINE L
- Tulane @ Tulsa -6.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
- PARLAY #2 // RISK 1 TO WIN 2.65 // LOSS
- Purdue @ Minnesota OVER 63 W
- Syracuse @ Louisville OVER 56.5 L
- App State @ Coastal Carolina -5.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // WIN
- Indiana @ Ohio State OVER 66 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // WIN
- Cincinnati -6 @ UCF // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 2 // LOSS
- Iowa @ Penn State OVER 47 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // WIN
- Liberty @ NC State OVER 67 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
- UCLA +13.5 @ Oregon // RISK 1.15 TO WIN 1 // WIN
Clemson @ Florida State OVER 65 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1// CANCELLEDMichigan State @ Maryland -6 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1// CANCELLED- Virginia Tech -3.5 @ Pittsburgh // RISK 1.05 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
- Arizona +11.5 @ Washington // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
- Wisconsin @ Northwestern +7.5 // RISK 1.15 TO WIN 1 // WIN
- PARLAY #3 // RISK 1 TO WIN 10 // LOSS
- Tulane @ Tulsa MONEYLINE W
- App State @ Coastal Carolina MONEYLINE W
- Cincinnati MONEYLINE @ UCF W
- Liberty MONEYLINE @ NC State L
- Michigan MONEYLINE @ Rutgers W
- Boise State MONEYLINE @ Hawaii W
- PARLAY #4 // RISK 1 TO WIN 2 // LOSS
- Cincinnati MONEYLINE @ UCF W
- Wisconsin MONEYLINE @ Northwestern L
- Indiana @ Ohio State MONEYLINE W
- Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma MONEYLINE W
- PARLAY #5 // RISK 0.3 TO WIN 8 // LOSS
- Iowa @ Penn State MONEYLINE L
- Michigan @ Rutgers MONEYLINE L
- Wisconsin @ Northwestern MONEYLINE W
- PARLAY #6 // RISK 0.75 TO WIN 22.25 // LOSS
- Tulane @ Tulsa MONEYLINE W
- Indiana @ Ohio State MONEYLINE W
- LSU @ Arkansas MONEYLINE L
- Cincinnati MONEYLINE @ UCF W
- Liberty MONEYLINE @ NC State L
- Michigan MONEYLINE @ Rutgers W
Washington State MONEYLINE @ Stanford
- NET LOSS: -6.3 UNITS
Red alert, literally! And another 6.3 units down the drain! In the words of Samuel L Jackson, hold onto your butts. To this point I have seen nothing that would indicate ‘clear sailing ahead.’ I expect more and more red to come.
Do you want to start with the good or bad? Lord knows I want to start with the bad. Let’s recap everything that pissed me off.
Liberty loses to NC State by 1 point in a slugfest snoozefest. This seems like a good time to revisit the dramatic Liberty win over Virginia Tech.
I like to throw around the phrase ‘water always finds its level.’ Well, this week water found its level.
39 yards. Couldn’t handle a 39 yard field goal to give them the go-ahead score. Maybe it’s better this way. It’s probably better to lose my 10 units on Parlay #3 with a blocked kick as opposed to watching NC State drive down the field in 30 seconds and rip my heart out. Let’s get em next time, idiot Liberty kicker.
Is this Tool of the Week or Snaker’s Dozen? Moving on…
I guess I’ll issue a quick ‘Go F Yourself’ to Cincinnati and all of their “analytics” morons on their staff who managed to overthink a game clinching touchdown.
Up by 3 points with 1:40 left, Cinci’s RB chooses to fall down at the 1 yard line rather than go up by 2 scores. Since when do you not walk into the endzone to go up two scores?
Cincy chooses not to score here giving UCF (+4) the cover 😬
— br_betting (@br_betting) November 22, 2020
Prayers up for anyone with Cincinnati -4 pic.twitter.com/YoU70vKkEO
And then when these idiots realized there was still too much time to do what they thought they could do, they were forced to hand off the ball and try to score on 2nd and 3rd down. Wouldn’t you know it – they got stuffed both times. So they literally gave up a touchdown and then tried their damndest to get back into the endzone and could not do it. All leading up to this scenario on 4th down…
Whoa! Almost disaster for Cincinnati vs UCF. pic.twitter.com/QEdzIRFUhT
— The Comeback (@thecomeback) November 22, 2020
Just FYI to all – if that streaking UCF guy picks up that football then the final score would have been 39-36 UCF. And to be honest they deserved to win for this asinine logic that some Cincinnati idiot holding a “chart” came up with.
Oh and btw the game still wasn’t over. There was 1 second left for UCF to run a desperation lateral play. So Cincinnati actually got themselves into a situation where they HAD to tackle someone in order to NOT LOSE. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills here. Next time somebody has a walk in touchdown to go up by 10, maybe just take it?
I was wildly incorrect on my assessment of Pitt and Virginia Tech. If anyone saw this coming – please shoot me a text who you like to win the Superbowl.
I also want to note that I’m getting very irritated with shit like this:
Both of the Arkansas and Liberty games could have easily went in my favor (Michigan 3OT was never a doubt), but it wouldn’t have made a difference. If there’s anything the Pac12 loves more than calling a game in favor of the favorite, it’s cancelling a football game. These idiots basically cancelled their games for 3 straight months just to come back and cancel some more games. And every time they do this bullshit it turns my parlay into a ‘must win everything else to get your money back’ situation.
Obviously the logical solution would be to wait until Saturday morning to place all of my bets…..but I’m not going to do that shit. So stop cancelling your games, Pac12.
Now for the good news…
Did I enjoy winning on Northwestern? Yes. Am I mildly angry that Darren Rovell is getting his jollies going about an overachieving Northwestern team? Yes.
According to his instagram Darren let it rip post-victory with a few NA pops. I’m not sure how to feel about how many bets he has down on NW to win the B1G, but Trav reassured me with a text that said “If someone gave me that amount of dough and odds right now, I’d say no thank you. You agree with that, it’s not up for debate.”
Lastly, I alluded to this at the beginning of this blog, but Coastal Carolina covered in the world’s greatest fashion.
Coastal Carolina with one of the greatest covers of all time pic.twitter.com/706Qjy6nQL
— Gump Cathcart (@bubbagumpino) November 21, 2020
So many things have to go right on this play in order for CC to cover the 5.5 points.
- QB needs to throw a shitty pass
- Defender needs to decide to intercept the pass as opposed to batting it down
- Once he’s decided to go for the pick. the defender needs to catch the ball
- The defender needs to make an effort to run this back instead of intentionally falling down to seal the game
- Defender needs to be able to run with a football like Barry Sanders
Holy shit what a runback by #7. Ok gambling gods, if you’re keeping track at home, that makes us even on Cincinnati and Liberty.
Oh I forgot to mention that Penn State is officially a Big Ten bottomfeeder. 4 and 5 star recruits all over the field and they might get their doors blown off by Rutgers. 2020 am I right!?
CFB WEEK 13 WINNERS
Let’s cut the bullshit. If I don’t end up in the green this week then I’m going to give Matthew Driscoll the boot. Rally the troops! (for maybe the last time)
Down big, this is the time to play it smart. Stay away from the parleys. Stay away from the moneylines…
That’s exactly what Bovada wants me to do. Right when I got em on the ropes.
Rule #1 of sports gambling – you are due.
Rule #2 – see Rule #1.
New Mexico -6.5 @ Utah State // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
I think Travey told me Utah State sucks this year? Maybe he said Utah. Whatever. I need an excuse to watch this thing and it sure is shit isn’t going to be for the love of the game. Let’s make a Thursday night unit.
UMass @ Liberty OVER 56.5 // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 2
What the hell is going on with this number? A pissed off Liberty at home. UMass stinks. They are probably recruiting some walk-on LBs and DEs as we speak. I think Liberty can get to 60 on their own.
Notre Dame @ UNC +5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
I don’t love this game, but there is something severely wrong with you if you don’t bet it. Friday night in Chapel Hill….maybe that could get weird (no Friday night cfb game in history has ever gotten weird, but we us gamblers continue to say this). I’m leaning UNC +5.
Central Florida @ South Florida MONEYLINE // RISK 0.5 TO WIN 5.25
I freaking hate UCF. Also – Friday night in whatever town South Florida University is located in…maybe that could get weird.
Stanford @ CAL MONEYLINE // RISK 1.2 TO WIN 1
Friday night at CAL. This one’s not getting weird. Cal is slightly favored and Cal is going to win. Moneyline just in case they decide to win by 1 point (taking the favorite by 1.5 is scariest bet in football IMO).
Kentucky @ Florida OVER 61 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
I’m not really sure what Florida is, but I’m positive they are not a title contender. I suspect what we have here is some weird Kmart version of the 2019 LSU dream team. I watched a little bit of the Florida game last week and all I could think about the entire time was that Kyle Trask needed some sunblock. The guy must be taking the covid stuff pretty seriously because he looks like he hasn’t been outdoors since March. Florida will try to score 49 on their own. So we just need 12 from Kentucky (I just realized this is a very stupid bet because that’s way too many for Kentucky right now).
Maryland @ Indiana OVER 62.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
Tua’s brother has been dying to get back out there and sling it. Indiana’s terrible quarterback will somehow throw for 500 more yards of 10 yard curls while leaning backwards and fading away from his target. This ones going over.
NC State -14.5 @ Syracuse // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
I sort of talked my old pal Cousin Chris into taking Syracuse moneyline against Louisville last week. He followed up mid-game and essentially told me Syracuse had the most horrific offensive scheme of all time. Based on that very limited info I’m going to say this line should be 3 touchdowns, not 2.
Ohio State -28 @ Illinois // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 2
Again, I find myself staring at the line wondering what on earth I am missing. 4 touchdowns? Ohio State pretty much just beat Indiana by 4 touchdowns and then a flukey end made that game look close. Justin Fields is going to try and make up all that lost ground in the Heisman race in one game. Look for him to throw for 400 and 5 tds. And OSU to win by 40+.
Bowling Green @ Ohio OVER 54.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
I have no insight here. I feel like I keep betting MAC unders and getting burned. Tired of getting burned. Let’s blind bet an over.
Auburn @ Alabama -25 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
Alabama is a well-oiled machine that’s mowing its way through covid like a semi-truck windshield taking on bugs. They seem to be the only team unaffected by it (except for Saban getting it 7 times). Nice little opportunity to flex on their little brother here. I like Bama big.
Auburn @ Alabama OVER 62.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
I’m not entirely sure how Alabama has managed to give up so many points this year, but I assume it has something to do with the fact that they are trying to score 200 points on offense. Maybe the defense is constantly gassed because the offense is getting off the field so quickly (with touchdowns as opposed to 3-and-out punts). Hopefully Auburn can score around 17. I think that will do the trick here.
Mississippi State @ Mississippi -9.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
I have absolutely no idea what to expect, but there’s no shot in hell I’m not getting in on the game where the guy took a dog piss on the field last year to cost his team a victory. Let’s assume Kiffin will be up by 1 score late and still throwing the ball down the field. FWIW – if this wasn’t the Egg Bowl then Ole Miss would win by 30 points. But anything could happen in the Egg Bowl.
PS – was that the most predictable missed XP of all time last year? As the guy’s leg was going up I was practically changing the channel to the next game.
Oh dang!! Elijah Moore of Ole Miss got called for a 15 yard penalty for the peeing like a dog celebration and the PAT got missed!! pic.twitter.com/T4qFlQ9jq8
— Abdul Memon (@abdulamemon) November 29, 2019
Memphis @ Navy UNDER 63 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
If a Navy total starts with the number ‘6’ then I will be taking the under. That rule is in effect until I die. And even then I’ll probably leave a gambling fund for my kids to keep that principle play going.
Virginia -9 @ Florida State // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
I’m siding with Dabo. I think FSU is scared to play at this point. Barring another attempt to cancel the game in fear of possibly having to cancel a game….FSU is about to get WORKED. I think Virginia gets out ahead and never looks back.
Nevada @ Hawaii OVER 60.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
I live bet the over in Boise State Hawaii last weekend late nite chasing. It appeared as if I was going to miss the total by about 30 points so I went ahead and hit the sack. To my surprise, I woke up to an over victory.
I think Hawaii overs are back. GIMME TRIPLE DIGITS IN THIS ONE!
PARLAY #1 // RISK 1 TO WIN 5.3
Iowa State @ Texas MONEYLINE
Central Michigan MONEYLINE @ Eastern Michigan
Wyoming MONEYLINE @ UNLV
Stanford @ Cal Moneyline
Oregon MONEYLINE @ Oregon State
Most of those teams are on par with the type of teams Bear likes to include in his Bitch of the Week parlays. So realisitically I am getting Texas Moneyline at 5:1.
PARLAY #2 // RISK 0.5 TO WIN 5.7
Notre Dame @ UNC MONEYLINE
Oregon @ Oregon State MONEYLINE
Little upset 2-teamer. Why not pick a couple homedogs? The only reason I’m not positive Oregon State will win is because I don’t trust the officials.
PARLAY #3 // RISK 0.2 TO WIN 55.2
Maryland MONEYLINE @ Indiana
Colorado MONEYLINE @ USC
LSU MONEYLINE @ Texas A&M
Nevada @ Hawaii MONEYLINE
Little upset 5-teamer. Maryland looked great against Penn State. Colorado can beat the historically overrated Trojans. LSU is still pissed they lost a 17OT game to A&M a couple years ago. And never doubt hawaii late night.
PARLAY #4 // RISK 1.5 TO WIN 7.9
NC State MONEYLINE @ Syracuse
Penn State @ Michigan MONEYLINE
UTEP @ Rice MONEYLINE
Coastal Carolina MONEYLINE @ Texas State
Northwestern MONEYLINE @ Michigan State
Miss St @ Ole Miss MONEYLINE
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State MONEYLINE
Oregon MONEYLINE @ Oregon State
Tell me which team blows it and why is it Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss?
PARLAY #5 // RISK 3.35 TO WIN 20
Stanford @ Cal +1.5
LSU +15 @ Texas A&M
Miss St @ Ole Miss -9.5
I am very very uncomfortable with putting up over 3 units on this, but like I’ve said before….I’m only comfortable when I’m uncomfortable. And also – we need to recoup some damage.
PARLAY #6 // RISK 1 TO WIN 48.6
UMass @ Liberty OVER 56.5
Nebraska @ Iowa UNDER 53.5
Notre Dame @ UNC UNDER 68
Oregon @ Oregon State UNDER 64
Coastal Carolina @ Texas State UNDER 58
Auburn @ Alabama OVER 62.5
Cue the Cheat Carroll pic!
That’s all, folks.
PS – Without fail I laugh at that stupid Cheat Carroll photo paired with that ridiculous zero-chance-of-hitting parlay every time I see it. Every single time.
LAST WEEK: -6.3 units
SEASON: -22.65 units
(SEASON RECORD: 29-44-2)