Not good. We are officially in trouble, girls.
LAST WEEK’S THOUGHTS:
- Miami (OH) @ Buffalo OVER 56.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
- PARLAY #1 // RISK 2.35 TO WIN 1 // WIN
- Akron @ Ohio MONEYLINE
- Kent State MONEYLINE @ Bowling Green
- Miami (OH) @ Buffalo MONEYLINE
- Eastern Michigan MONEYLINE @ Ball State // RISK 1 TO WIN 2.6 // LOSS
- Central Michigan @ Northern Illinois MONEYLINE // RISK 1 TO WIN 2.4 // LOSS
- Colorado State @ Boise State UNDER 61 // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 2 // LOSS
- FAU @ Florida International +9 // RISK 1.15 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
- Iowa @ Minnesota UNDER 58 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // WIN
Coastal Carolina MONEYLINE @ Troy // RISK 2 TO WIN 0.5// CANCELLEDGeorgia @ Missouri UNDER 48.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1// CANCELLED- Vanderbilt +17 @ Kentucky // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // WIN
Cal @ Arizona State -4 // RISK 2.3 TO WIN 2// CANCELLEDCal @ Arizona State OVER 47 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1// CANCELLED- Notre Dame @ Boston College +13.5 // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 2 // LOSS
- Notre Dame @ Boston College MONEYLINE // RISK 1.2 TO WIN 4.5 // LOSS
Ohio State @ Maryland UNDER 72.5 // RISK 3.3 TO WIN 3// CANCELLED- Baylor @ Texas Tech OVER 58 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
Alabama @ LSU OVER 71.0 // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 2// CANCELLED- Florida State @ NC State OVER 60 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // PUSH
Pitt @ Georgia Tech +6.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1// CANCELLED- Northwestern MONEYLINE @ Purdue // RISK 2.1 TO WIN 1.5 // WIN
- South Carolina +11.5 @ Mississippi // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
- South Carolina @ Mississippi UNDER 71.0 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
- Oregon State +13.5 @ Washington // RISK 2.3 TO WIN 2 // WIN
- Oregon State MONEYLINE @ Washington // RISK 2 TO WIN 7.5 // LOSS
- PARLAY #2 // RISK 1 TO WIN 21 // LOSS
- Iowa MONEYLINE @ Minnesota
- Coastal Carolina MONEYLINE @ Troy
- Indiana MONEYLINE @ Michigan State
- Cal @ Arizona State MONEYLINE
- Fresno State MONEYLINE @ Utah State
- Colorado @ Stanford MONEYLINE
- Ohio State MONEYLINE @ Maryland
- Nevada MONEYLINE @ New Mexico
- Northwestern MONEYLINE @ Purdue
- PARLAY #3 // RISK 0.5 TO WIN 140 // LOSS
- Georgia State MONEYLINE @ App State
- Oregon @ Washington State MONEYLINE
- Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech MONEYLINE
- South Carolina MONEYLINE @ Mississippi
- NET LOSS: -10.15 UNITS
Losses everywhere. Red everywhere. Tan almost everywhere. Jan almost everywhere. I might tap out. I’m secretly praying for Dan Wolken and the rona boys to pull the plug on this entire season (for the second time).
In all seriousness, let me just come out and say it – I am ice cold. And when I say ice cold I mean ICE COLD. If the devil walked into my house right now he’d say “holy shit turn the AC down.” Idk if that analogy makes any sense, but that’s pretty much where I’m at.
I was so desperate to plug some of these leaks on the ship that I was betting on NFL Sunday and I unintentionally took a sledgehammer and bashed it into the hull. I don’t know what I gotta do around here to buy a win, but I’m at the point where I may start betting ML on every team that I hate. At least that might make the losing hurt a little less…
I don’t know if it’s better or worse that half of my goddam plays got cancelled due to COVID, but I am going to go on record and say that I don’t think it helped me. I felt terrific about Ohio State holding Maryland to a couple scores and I think Alabama would have put 65 points on LSU. I’d make those plays 10 times out of 10 if given the chance. I might just tell my book to hang onto that money and put those bets towards next season’s matchups.
Speaking of “I’d make those plays again,” I maintain that Boston College was the correct pick at home against Notre Dame. I have to admit I didn’t watch much football on Saturday, so I’m assuming this game was never close. But Boston College ML at nearly 4 to 1 against the most overrated team on earth in a letdown spot was the correct play.
Imagine having the under on South Carolina @ Ole Miss…oh actually I can imagine that because I’m one of the idiots that had it. 1300 yards of offense and 101 points. This might be my dumbest play of the season.
Never change, @Lane_Kiffin 😂 pic.twitter.com/YV4l8zGs4F
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) November 15, 2020
The only other thing I’d like to touch on is a Pac-12 recommendation from yours truly. The recommendation is this – TAKE THE PAC-12 FAVORITE. I know that implicit bias is a real thing and the refs tend to believe the “better” team should win the game but holy shit….can you pac-12 zebras at least PRETEND you care about calling a fair game?
Did anyone watch Oregon State @ Washington? Let me answer that for you – no. You didn’t watch it because the game kicked off at 11pm and you probably don’t have a full blown addiction to ‘late nite chasing.’ (Wondering if I can trademark that phrase).
Idk if this makes me a conspiracy theorist, but it would only make sense for the Pac-12 to do everything in its power to ensure USC, Oregon, and Washington have a crack at a 6-0 season, and ultimately a #4 next to their name come December. And wouldn’t you know it, those teams are a combined 5-0! Not to mention that USC has won both of their matchups with last second comebacks. And what better time to rip off some egregious officiating calls for Washington than 2am against Oregon State?
The Pac-12 defended the ruling on a controversial fourth-down spot late in Oregon State's loss to Washington.
— Yahoo Sports College Football (@YahooSportsCFB) November 16, 2020
➡️ https://t.co/FXXdLJfxgv pic.twitter.com/2BSwdycmlU
You know the Pac-12 is back when the officials are making questionable calls that are dictating games. The Oregon State spot deep in the red zone was one of the most baffling blown calls I've ever seen. Beavers fans have to be angry.
— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) November 15, 2020
Uh, not sure how this Oregon State 4th down spot was short when most of his body went across the line. pic.twitter.com/ugGlpBPJD7
— Chris Vannini 😷 (@ChrisVannini) November 15, 2020
The Pac-12 addresses the ball-spot issue last night. Says no irrefutable evidence to overturn. pic.twitter.com/IBeidg2Y1s
— Christian Caple (@ChristianCaple) November 16, 2020
Just FYI if you ever find yourself issuing a statement to defend an officiating call you made, then you most certainly got that call incorrect. And not only did they F that call up on the field, they actually went to review it and somehow confirmed the spot. Oh and btw on the previous play Oregon State also gained the first down and it was marked 3″ short. Naturally, the game ended in such a way that a touchdown on this possession would have been the game winner. God I love gambling.
Oregon State… just got the first down twice. Pac-12 — get a review on that.
— John Canzano (@johncanzanobft) November 15, 2020
Essentially, Oregon State ML was my last ditch effort to make Saturday somewhat respectable (especially after I tripled down on it), and it didn’t happen for one reason or another. But from now on – I have to be mindful that the Pac-12 will go to no end to ensure their big dogs stay in the drivers seat.
CFB WEEK 12 WINNERS
For the love of god, Matthew Driscoll, hit it again! Let’s right this ship.
PARLAY #1 // RISK 0.7 TO WIN 3
Toledo MONEYLINE @ Eastern Michigan
Northern Illinois @ Ball State UNDER 62
Western Michigan @ Central Michigan MONEYLINE
Let’s start this off with a Wednesday night parlay. I still have zero clue on MAC football so might as well try to string 3 winners together. Toledo should have won last week and I’ll pick against Western Michigan because PJ Fleck is a gigantic tool. Imagine dressing like this for a football game:
Tulane @ Tulsa -6.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
I’m starting to think Tulsa is a little underrated. They’ve lost one game this year and it was a week 1 matchup with Oklahoma State. On the flip side, Tulane has been overrated for like 3 years now. Tulsa by a TD at home? Sign me up.
PARLAY #2 // RISK 1 TO WIN 2.65
Purdue @ Minnesota OVER 63
Syracuse @ Louisville OVER 56.5
Have I mentioned that PJ Fleck sucks yet? Minnesota isn’t afraid to give up 40 points in a half. And Purdue’s offense can play a little bit. I’m not sure if he died or what happened to him, but let’s take a second to appreciate Rondale Moore. “HE’S STILL GOING!”
App State @ Coastal Carolina -5.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
I don’t think App State is playing up to par this year. That being said I have watched them for about 5 seconds. More importantly, I got this text from Trav:
Indiana @ Ohio State OVER 66 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
I was looking forward to taking Ohio State in this one until I realized they are favored by 3 touchdowns. I guess I’m not alone in realizing Indiana is incredibly overhyped. I think Ohio State can score 50 here and the tryhards will be foaming at the mouth to score in garbage time. 66 should be doable.
The good news is win-or-lose for Indiana you know that Tom Allen will be hysterically crying in the locker room. Is that guy a football coach or a toddler who forgot to save his NCAA Dynasty on PS3? Get a grip man.
We ❤️ you, coach! #LEO pic.twitter.com/nk3x7GUr6J
— Indiana Football (@IndianaFootball) October 25, 2020
Cincinnati -6 @ UCF // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 2
UCF sort of sucks again and all is right in the world. I will root against these guys for the rest of my life.
Iowa @ Penn State OVER 47 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
I’ve watched all 3 of Penn State’s losses in excruciating detail. It seems the oddsmakers forgot to account for the fact that Penn State will spot to the opposing team 10-14 points right off the bat. So realistically this total is in the mid-30s. That should be ea$y money.
Liberty @ NC State OVER 67 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
You gotta put a 7 in the front of that number to stop me from taking an over between these two teams. I don’t care if Hugh Freeze coaches this game from the sideline, the hospital, or his grave. Liberty is getting 40.
UCLA +13.5 @ Oregon // RISK 1.15 TO WIN 1
It’s been about 12 minutes since I invented the “take the Pac-12 favorite” rule and I already want to break it with a ML here. I got a feeling that Chip Kelly gets a revenge W in this one.
Holy shit if nobody else is gonna say it I will. Chip Kelly shouldn’t be coaching football until he is vaccinated for COVID….twice for good measure.
Clemson @ Florida State OVER 65 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
I’m getting mildly concerned with the amount of overs I’m playing this weekend…
Michigan State @ Maryland -6 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
This is definitely the first time I will have ever taken Maryland laying the points. And I’m sure it will be the last when they let me down. Given that Tua is the GOAT let’s just assume some of that talent will shine through his brother this Saturday. Also – Michigan State sucks.
Virginia Tech -3.5 @ Pittsburgh // RISK 1.05 TO WIN 1
I have no idea why I placed this bet. I immediately hated it as soon as I realized Pitt was at home. I guess Va Tech played Miami close last week and Miami blew Pitt off the field, right? We’ll go with that for justification.
Arizona +11.5 @ Washington // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
Arizona just hung with USC who is decent and Washington needed help from the refs to fend off Oregon State. I have no idea why this is 11.5 points. I would be tempted to go ML here as well….but I have banned myself from those in the Pac.
Wisconsin @ Northwestern +7.5 // RISK 1.15 TO WIN 1
I’ve seen this game before and it was Penn State @ Minnesota in 2019. This is Northwestern’s Super Bowl. Wisconsin guys are dropping left and right with asymptomatic colds. If NW can’t keep this game close, then they should shut down their football team forever. Because this is as good of an opportunity to beat one of the big boys as they are ever going to get.
PS – Put Darren Rovell in the ICU in advance of this kickoff. This guy is going to be making trips to his bathroom every 15 minutes during this one. (That statement could go a lot of different ways).
PARLAY #3 // RISK 1 TO WIN 10
Tulane @ Tulsa MONEYLINE
App State @ Coastal Carolina MONEYLINE
Cincinnati MONEYLINE @ UCF
Liberty MONEYLINE @ NC State
Michigan MONEYLINE @ Rutgers
Boise State MONEYLINE @ Hawaii
I’m not worried about a single one of those.
PARLAY #4 // RISK 1 TO WIN 2
Cincinnati MONEYLINE @ UCF
Wisconsin MONEYLINE @ Northwestern
Indiana @ Ohio State MONEYLINE
Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma MONEYLINE
I’m even less worried about these.
PARLAY #5 // RISK 0.3 TO WIN 8
Iowa @ Penn State MONEYLINE
Michigan @ Rutgers MONEYLINE
Wisconsin @ Northwestern MONEYLINE
I’m 99.99% sure that we will see AT LEAST 3 upsets in the Big Ten this week. It’s just a matter of trying to pick out the 3 teams. Given this year’s theme of ‘nothing makes sense,’ I feel like Rutgers actually stands a chance here. Three home dogs…three winners. Ea$y 8 unit pickup.
PARLAY #6 // RISK 0.75 TO WIN 22.25
Tulane @ Tulsa MONEYLINE
Indiana @ Ohio State MONEYLINE
LSU @ Arkansas MONEYLINE
Cincinnati MONEYLINE @ UCF
Liberty MONEYLINE @ NC State
Michigan MONEYLINE @ Rutgers
- Washington State MONEYLINE @ Stanford
It’s time to quit beatin around the bush and get serious about winning some units. Lets win a longshot. Tell em, Cheat Carroll!
That’s all, folks.
PS – as I’m writing this, Parlay #1 is currently in major trouble with CMU. What do you know – we’re digging ourselves a hole. Let’s have a weekend!
LAST WEEK: -10.15 units
SEASON: -16.35 units
(SEASON RECORD: 24-33-2)
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