I’m too irritated to put some funny line up here so let’s get right to the recap.
LAST WEEK’S THOUGHTS:
- Ohio @ Central Michigan UNDER 54.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
- Bowling Green @ Toledo UNDER 63 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // WIN
- Miami (FL) @ NC State OVER 58.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // WIN
- BYU -2 @ Boise State // RISK 2.3 TO WIN 2 // WIN
- BYU MONEYLINE @ Boise State // RISK 1.3 TO WIN 1 // WIN
- Michigan -3 @ Indiana // RISK 3.3 TO WIN 3 // LOSS
- Michigan MONEYLINE @ Indiana // RISK 2 TO WIN 1.5 // LOSS
- Arizona State +10.5 @ USC // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 2 // WIN
- Arizona State MONEYLINE @ USC // RISK 1.4 TO WIN 4 // LOSS
- West Virginia @ Texas -6.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
- West Virginia @ Texas OVER 55 // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 2 // LOSS
- Liberty +15 @ Virginia Tech // RISK 2.1 TO WIN 2 // WIN
- Liberty MONEYLINE @ Virginia Tech // RISK 1 TO WIN 4.5 // WIN
- Nebraska @ Northwestern MONEYLINE // RISK 1.7 TO WIN 1 // WIN
- UMass @ Marshall -44.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
- UMass @ Marshall OVER 55.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // WIN
- Florida @ Georgia -3.5 // RISK 2.1 TO WIN 2 // LOSS
- Houston @ Cincinnati -11 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // WIN
- Maryland @ Penn State -25 // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 2 // LOSS
- Clemson -6 @ Notre Dame // RISK 4.6 TO WIN 4 // LOSS
- Clemson MONEYLINE @ Notre Dame // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
- PARLAY #1 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 3 // WIN
- Arizona State +10.5 @ USC
- Liberty +15 @ Virginia Tech
- PARLAY #2 // RISK 1 TO WIN 21 // LOSS
- Arizona State MONEYLINE @ USC
- Liberty MONEYLINE @ Virginia Tech
- PARLAY #3 // RISK 1 TO WIN 11.1 // LOSS
- Clemson MONEYLINE @ Notre Dame
- Houston @ Cincinnati MONEYLINE
- Florida @ Georgia MONEYLINE
- West Virginia @ Texas MONEYLINE
- Michigan MONEYLINE @ Indiana
- BYU MONEYLINE @ Boise State
- South Alabama @ Coastal Carolina MONEYLINE
- PARLAY #4 // RISK 3.6 TO WIN 3 // WIN
- Houston @ Cincinnati MONEYLINE
- West Virginia @ Texas MONEYLINE
- South Alabama @ Coastal Carolina MONEYLINE
- NET LOSS: -2.8 UNITS
Are you fucking kidding me Parlay #2?? Are you kidding me? I thought about you all week long. ALL WEEK LONGUHHH!!!
I nailed BOTH of those games. I knew exactly how they’d play out. I knew Arizona State and Liberty were both coin flip games and that their odds were incredibly valuable. Arizona State wasn’t just a coin flip, they were the better team in that game. Yet they did that thing where you let someone hang around long enough and then they stab you in the throat at the very end. And I mean the VERY end. Look at this shit. This is how I lost 21 units! 21!
That’s what it looks like when you blow a 27-14 lead in garbage time. You give up a 4th and forever hail mary touchdown. Then you give up an onside kick. And then give up ANOTHER 4th and forever hail mary touchdown. Oh and then you get the ball back down 27-28 and start marching down the field when some pac-12 dickhead ref steps in and decides to stop your drive and go review a play from 3 plays ago and decide something wasn’t a catch.
Oh and don’t forget about the 4 units we had coming for the straight up ASU moneyline. So instead of reeling in 25 units I am forced to donate 2.4. That’s a nice 27.4 unit swing in the wrong direction.
And for as bad as this ASU loss was, the Liberty win was equal and opposite. It was awesome.
Such a perfect idiot college kicker. Looks like Brooks Koepka except his biceps are even bigger. I guess he was on Penn State’s team at one point. Is there anyway we can get him back?
In all seriousness, you deserve to lose if you try and kick a 59-yard field goal with that guy. I’m not sure why it took that kick being blocked for them to realize they should try to grab 10 more yards. I’m also not sure why Virginia Tech said “go ahead and grab yourselves 10 yards.” But THAT is how you win a football game. That’s how you cash a moneyline.
What else? I couldn’t really bring myself to care about anything else after that missed opportunity. I dwelled on it all day. And while I was dwelling I was also doubling, tripling, and quardupling down on Clemson. I don’t even wanna think about how good of a week I would have had if Clemson OR Michigan showed up to play. The difference between those two teams is that a flat Michigan team gets blown out by Indiana and a flat Clemson team loses a 2OT game to Notre Dame who played about as well as they possibly could have. I don’t care if it’s the last thing on earth that I ever do…I’m going to win all of that money I lost on Clemson back in December when these teams play each other again.
Speaking of flat, we need to invent a new word for whatever Penn State is. It’s like every player and coach on the team takes sleeping pills right before kickoff. Except for the QB. He says no to the sleeping pills and he drinks a fifth of fireball instead. I wouldn’t give a shit if this week’s line was Penn State +31 @ Nebraska. I wouldn’t touch it. I’m not going to waste another dollar trying to figure out what in the hell James Franklin is doing behind closed doors all week leading up to Saturday.
My only other note from week 10 is that BYU is damn good. These bastards are 8-0 and 6-2 ATS. I keep assuming Vegas will catch on at some point, but yet here we are. I want both the QB and Mitt Romneys half-kid at the Heisman trophy presentation. I don’t know how to explain the Romney kid, because I can’t back it up with stats, but I’ll be shocked if this dude isn’t reeling in passes from whoever is playing QB for the Denver Broncos in 2 years. “And with the 174th pick in the NFL draft…John Elway selects….
After the dust settled, I’m down another 2.8 units this week. Not ideal, but still within striking distance. And keep in mind I was DANGEROUSLY close to having a +25 unit week.
CFB WEEK 11 WINNERS
Before I get to the actual picks I did want to mention that I have never looked at this many games and said “I have no idea.” I’m completely lost. But maybe that’s a good thing. Call me Amy Winehouse because this week I’m taking a bunch of shots in the dark.
Miami (OH) @ Buffalo OVER 56.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
I seriously haven’t the slightest clue on Tuesday night MACtion, but I’m not going to let the night slip by without getting any action on it. These teams look like they each scored 400 points last week. I’m confused why this number is in the 50s (I’m sure it’s because I am unaware of a pivotal piece of information). Here’s me the moment this game kicks off and the commentator makes some significant announcement:
PARLAY #1 // RISK 2.35 TO WIN 1
Akron @ Ohio MONEYLINE
Kent State MONEYLINE @ Bowling Green
Miami (OH) @ Buffalo MONEYLINE
F it. This is the textbook definition of ‘stupid,’ but I’m just going to ML parlay the favorites.
Eastern Michigan MONEYLINE @ Ball State // RISK 1 TO WIN 2.6
See above for the reason why I’m betting on Wednesday night MAC football.
Central Michigan @ Northern Illinois MONEYLINE // RISK 1 TO WIN 2.4
Basically I just need either the Huskies or the Eagles to steal a W in order to make money. Considering that Tuesday night is GUARANTEED to go chalk (see Parlay #1), I like my odds here that one of these teams win.
Colorado State @ Boise State UNDER 61 // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 2
After watching BYU wipe the floor (the blue turf that is) with the Broncos I am absolutely astounded at that number. Jack Sears got hit in the head so hard he forgot what planet he was on. So if Boise tries to play that kid this week I’m going to personally fly out there and put a stop to the game. Unless Brian Bosworth is coaching Boise State, we should see a backup QB in there. I’m also using deductive reasoning that if Boise State is a 2-touchdown favorite then Colorado State must absolutely suck. This game goes way low.
FAU @ Florida International +9 // RISK 1.15 TO WIN 1
Iowa @ Minnesota UNDER 58 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
Look, I know Minnesota’s defense absolutely sucks. But something doesn’t feel right about assuming Iowa vs. Minnesota will result in 60 points. For the majority of my life this game’s total has probably been set around 39.5. What do you think, PJ?
Coastal Carolina MONEYLINE @ Troy // RISK 2 TO WIN 0.5
Wtf is going on with these Coastal guys? We’ve got them ranked #15!? That’s such a perfect number to be at when they finally lay an egg. That being said I’m trying to make a free half-unit in this spot. If they lose, at least everybody will stop talking about them. If they win, I’ll make a little dough. Win-win.
Georgia @ Missouri UNDER 48.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
My two favorite teams have serious issues at QB. I am going to use this opportunity to dare Stetson Bennett to try and come up with 35 points. Because I’m not sure the Georgia defense is going to give up 2 touchdowns. GO DAWGS.
Vanderbilt +17 @ Kentucky // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
Everybody spent all offseason making fun of Vandy, but they continue to hang around and lose close. This has got backdoor cover written all over it. Look for Vandy to cover in garbage time.
Cal @ Arizona State -4 // RISK 2.3 TO WIN 2
If you think I’m mad about the ASU collapse vs. USC, wait until you see what Herm Edwards has up his sleeve. ASU runs away with sumbitch.
Cal @ Arizona State OVER 47 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
Herm is planning on grabbing 50 for himself. Jayden Daniels should officially be settled in. So take the team total over on ASU and take the over 47 in this game.
Notre Dame @ Boston College +13.5 // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 2
That line is begging you to take ND. BEGGING YOU. And there’s a reason for that. This will be BC’s super bowl. And ND is probably the least comfortable team on the planet when they earn that overrated ranking. BC can keep this close…very close…dare I say….
Notre Dame @ Boston College MONEYLINE // RISK 1.2 TO WIN 4.5
Sorry, Brian Kelly. Those odds are entirely too valuable for me not to jump on. We just watched BC give Clemson a run for it’s money at home while ND was in the middle of a dogfight with Louisville and needed bailed out by an onside kick penalty flag. I think there is a way better chance than 1 in 4 that BC can win this game. (Hint: Think coin flip.)
Side note – when a ref throws a flag on some arbitrary shit like offsides during an onside kick that the kicking team recovers, we should put that ref in jail (and we should consider putting that ref in an electric chair).
Ohio State @ Maryland UNDER 72.5 // RISK 3.3 TO WIN 3
Absolutely, positively, ridiculous total. I guess Vegas is taking advantage of all of the Ohio State and Maryland frat tools this weekend. “I ONLY BET OVERS BRO!!”
Seriously – how many points do you think Maryland is going to score? 14? Just FYI they scored 3 versus Northwestern. 3 points. I’ll take my chances with Ohio State scoring less than 60 points here.
Baylor @ Texas Tech OVER 58 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
Holy hell do both of these teams suck or what? I could see this game getting so ridiculously out of hand. I’m closing my eyes and I can picture 45-35 in the 3rd quarter. Then again, I can picture 10-7 in the 4th quarter. Whatever, let’s not overthink this. This has the potential to be a classic Big 12 football game. The over is the play.
Alabama @ LSU OVER 71.0 // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 2
A total in the 70s should always raise a caution flag, but I can’t talk myself out of it. Huge Alabama revenge spot. Bo Pelini could give up 90 points to Akron. And LSU will be scratching and clawing at the end to avoid the scoreboard showing a total embarrassment. I never thought I’d see the day when I’d root for Alabama to put somebody back in their place, but here we are. Over/under 71 points in this game and over/under 71 IQ points between these two guys combined?
Florida State @ NC State OVER 60 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
I mentioned last week that every game NC State is involved with results in 100 points. Florida State is also one of those teams. I must be missing something because this looks like a free unit to me.
Pitt @ Georgia Tech +6.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
Pitt hasn’t earned the right to be favored by a touchdown to anyone. Sidenote – there could be 100 points scored in this game or 0 points scored in this game. I guess that’s why Vegas made the total right around 50.
Northwestern MONEYLINE @ Purdue // RISK 2.1 TO WIN 1.5
It pains me to say it, but I was under the impression that NW was actually decent this year. I was surprised how close this line was. My guess is it’s an overreaction to the Nebraska game. This worked last week so let’s try it again. NW moneyline is the play. Just remember to consult your doctor after 4 hours, Darren Rovell.
South Carolina +11.5 @ Mississippi // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
Can’t miss em both bet combined with the Under.
South Carolina @ Mississippi UNDER 71.0 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
Can’t miss em both bet combined with SC +11.5.
I don’t have my calculator out, but I don’t think it’s physically possible for South Carolina to lose by 2 touchdowns and this game to go over 71. So the hope here is that you steal them both, but you are guaranteed to only lose 0.1 units at the most. “Guaranteed.”
Oregon State +13.5 @ Washington // RISK 2.3 TO WIN 2
I’ve been losing money betting on Washington for about 3 years now. Not sure where my brain got confused and determined Washington is good, but they aren’t. No reason for this spread to be 2 tds. And the last time I was in Oregon I almost bought a Oregon State shirt. That basically makes me a lifelong fan.
Oregon State MONEYLINE @ Washington // RISK 2 TO WIN 7.5
If Oregon State pulls out a win here I promise I will buy that Oregon State shirt the next time I’m out there. Screw it – if they win this game, I’ll buy the camo version. Don’t ask me why, but most of the Oregon State gear inside the Portland Nike store was camouflage. I’m still trying to figure that one out…
PARLAY #2 // RISK 0.75 TO WIN 9.9
Iowa MONEYLINE @ Minnesota
Coastal Carolina MONEYLINE @ Troy
Indiana MONEYLINE @ Michigan State
Cal @ Arizona State MONEYLINE
Fresno State MONEYLINE @ Utah State
Colorado @ Stanford MONEYLINE
Ohio State MONEYLINE @ Maryland
Nevada MONEYLINE @ New Mexico
Northwestern MONEYLINE @ Purdue
Tell me who blows this parlay and why is it Indiana?
PARLAY #3 // RISK 0.5 TO WIN 140
Georgia State MONEYLINE @ App State
Oregon @ Washington State MONEYLINE
Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech MONEYLINE
South Carolina MONEYLINE @ Mississippi
Little underdog parlay brothas. Why not?
That’s all folks. This is supposed to be the “water finds its level” week. Apologies in advance to Coastal Carolina for causing them to lose.
LAST WEEK: -2.8 units
SEASON: -6.2 units
(SEASON RECORD: 19-20-1)