Well, well, well – Week 10 (which is actually Week 2 for me) is upon us tonight and BONUS we have MAC football. It feels good to be back where I belong – spending hours getting plugged in to the latest CFB news and still managing to lose money by betting on it.
LAST WEEK’S THOUGHTS:
- LSU -2 @ Auburn // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 2 // LOSS
- MSU @ Michigan OVER 51 // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 2 // PUSH
- Indiana @ Rutgers +13 // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 2 // LOSS
- Boston College @ Clemson OVER 58 // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 2 // WIN
- Ohio State @ Penn State +12 // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 2 // LOSS
- Ohio State @ Penn State MONEYLINE // RISK 2 TO WIN 6.7 // LOSS
- UCF @ Houston UNDER 83 // RISK 1.15 TO WIN 1 // WIN
- Navy @ SMU UNDER 59.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
- Georgia @ Kentucky OVER 42.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
- Notre Dame @ Georgia Tech OVER 57 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
- Northwestern @ Iowa UNDER 45.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // WIN
- Purdue @ Illinois UNDER 59 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // WIN
- Texas +3.5 @ Oklahoma St // RISK 1.05 TO WIN 1 // WIN
- Texas MONEYLINE @ Oklahoma St // RISK 1 TO WIN 1.5 // WIN
- Memphis @ Cincinnati OVER 55.5 // RISK 1.05 TO WIN 1 // WIN
- NET LOSS: -3.4 UNITS
Like I said I’m pretty much right back in my natural habitat of losing money. But this is exactly where I wanted to be. I’m only comfortable when I’m uncomfortable. I said the units would swing wildly and that I did not want to end up anywhere near a “net zero” day. I ended up down 3.4 units. Good. Now I got you right where I want you, Bovada.
Upon further review it looks like I did a tremendous job of losing the games I had confidence in and winning the ones I didn’t. With that being said, I DO NOT plan on adjusting my confidence-to-units meter this week like any rational thinking person would do. Instead I’ll probably steer into it a little harder.
I would be remiss to not point out the ROBBERY committed by the replay officials during Rutgers backdoor cover miracle. Why on earth they felt the need to review this, let along overturn it at this point in the game seriously makes me question Tim Donaghy’s whereabouts on Saturday.
Holy shit, Rutgers.
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) October 31, 2020
They covered on this play. pic.twitter.com/FMZLG8TB1c
Feel free to point out to me the forward lateral in that play that was so egregious that it required an overturn ruling with 2 minutes left on 4th and 32.
Later on in the night I went into the Penn State game with essentially no damage, which is exactly where I needed to be. Then in a rare turn of events, James Franklin disappointed me. But there’s always next year PSU fans! (or maybe next year will have very high expectations and then we’ll end up doing about as well as we did this year.)
My only other key takeaways were that Coach O sucks, the ‘never take an over on an 80s total’ principle works, and always bank on the Big 12 beating each other up. All in all, a good weekend of football for a below average slate.
Lastly, I hate that it happened without giving it out, but in all honesty I had a couple nice parlays (or parleys as I like to call em) hit that offset some of my losses. Leave it to Texas aka ‘old reliable’ to recoup some losses on the day.
As a result of this tragedy we are officially leaving no stone unturned in the parley department. I’ll do my best to hand out a parley or two within my mildly concerning number of picks from this point going forward.
CFB WEEK 10 WINNERS
Ohio @ Central Michigan UNDER 54.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
There’s no chance I let the opening night of the MAC slip by me without losing some money on it. “Can’t miss em both” play combined with Bowling Green @ Toldeo under. Somebody told me the wind is blowing tonight so we’re doing blind unders in MACtion.
Bowling Green @ Toledo UNDER 63 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
“Can’t miss em both” play combined with Ohio @ CMU under. CUE THAT WIND!!!
Miami (FL) @ NC State OVER 58.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
BYU -2 @ Boise State // RISK 2.3 TO WIN 2
Didn’t understand this line when I first saw it and my only regret is not tossing down another unit on this line while it was still under a field goal. BYU is good. TBH I have no clue on Boise State, but something tells me this will be a down year for them.
BYU MONEYLINE @ Boise State // RISK 1.3 TO WIN 1
See above. F the blue turf.
Michigan -3 @ Indiana // RISK 3.3 TO WIN 3
Last week was the exact scenario we needed in order to cement Indiana as the most overrated team on the planet. They lose a close game to Penn State and then they beat Rutgers in order to earn an AP ranking of #13. Michigan blows the doors off Minnesota and then loses a flukey rivalry game to their little brother. I was praying I’d get this line under 10 points. AND IT’S A FIELD GOAL? Pinch me I must be dreaming.
Michigan MONEYLINE @ Indiana // RISK 2 TO WIN 1.5
Michigan is guaranteed to cover. In order to cover they are guaranteed to win. Would that be considered the transitive property? Enjoy the free 1.5 units.
Also in all seriousness….Jim Harbaugh CAN NOT afford to lose this game. He’ll find a way to win.
Arizona State +10.5 @ USC // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 2
I’m sitting here staring at this line wondering how they came up with 10.5 points. My guess is it has something to do with USC having a #20 next to its name. Logically, the next question you have to ask yourself is why does USC have a #20 next to its name. I’m assuming it has something to do with the fact that 10 years ago USC was a good team. Seems like the AP has chosen to disregard the fact that this team is coached by Clay Helton and they have been recruiting like they are Sun Belt team trying to make a name for themselves.
Also – I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I think Herm Edwards might be building something in Arizona State. These guys looked inspired towards the end of last year and this Jayden Daniels kid is legit.
Arizona State MONEYLINE @ USC // RISK 1.4 TO WIN 4
The other weird thing about this game that you may have missed is that it kicks off at 9AM local time. Who’s the moron that came up with that idea? (It just dawned on me that if you live in PAC12 territory you need to wake up at 6AM to watch Gameday.) So I think Herm finds a way to fire up his boys for the 9AM kick. At least more than Clay Helton does. I’m riding with the Devils whether Herm knows who that is or not!
West Virginia @ Texas -6.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
Texas is “back” if being back means you are still not great, but you are 2 touchdowns better than a team like West Virginia.
West Virginia @ Texas OVER 55 // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 2
I feel like either of these teams can score 55 points by themselves, and more importantly, either of these SCRUB defenses can give up 55 points in the blink of an eye.
Liberty +15 @ Virginia Tech // RISK 2.1 TO WIN 2
How about Travey boy six rack trying to claim that Hugh Freeze sucks? Hugh Freeze is legit. This guy would be competing neck and neck with Alabama had he been able to resist the lot lizards or buy a burner phone.
New Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin holding babies and greeting fans after landing in Oxford. pic.twitter.com/8MMN1ga6cZ
— News Mississippi (@News_MS) December 8, 2019
Liberty MONEYLINE @ Virginia Tech // RISK 1 TO WIN 4.5
Is 15 points too many to use the “the wrong team is favored” line? With the inconsistency of Virginia Tech’s play, I don’t see why this thing isn’t a pick ’em. If there’s one thing I know about Liberty it’s that they can score some GD points. If they get to 35 points are we sure VT will do the same? Too much value with +450 to resist this bad boy.
Nebraska @ Northwestern MONEYLINE // RISK 1.7 TO WIN 1
I’ve been fading Nebraska going back to the beginning of last season. They suck. Somebody decided they are good because they hired a guy named Scott Frost. That’s literally it. No other reason.
But this play is actually less about Nebraska and more about Northwestern. I think Northwestern might actually be good. Darren Rovell is probably going to be rock hard in his living room by 3pm est. (Hows that for a visual?)
UMass @ Marshall -44.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
I’m pretty sure UMass tried to cancel the season on themselves because they got emotionally caught up in the COVID stuff. And this seems like a textbook opportunity for a fake good team like Marshall to run up the score and trick idiots into thinking they should compete in a New Years 6 Bowl.
UMass @ Marshall OVER 55.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
When Marshall is up 45-0 they won’t stop trying to score. I expect this game to end up in the 65-3 range. UMass drills a 37 yard field goal as time expires to get on the board.
Best celly you'll see all night @espn, @ESPNAssignDesk #SCTop10 pic.twitter.com/cy1bZdPt36
— UMass Football (@UMassFootball) October 29, 2017
Florida @ Georgia -3.5 // RISK 2.1 TO WIN 2
Gonna stick with my gut feeling that Georgia suffocates their opponent over the course of 4 quarters and grinds out a win like they have done literally every single week for the last few years as long as they are not playing Alabama. GO DAWGS.
Houston @ Cincinnati -11 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1
I mean they must have forgot a digit with that line. Did they mean to put Cincinnati -111*? Easy money.
Maryland @ Penn State -25 // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 2
I am literally that character from the Key and Peele skit where they convince the ex-military sniper to come out of retirement. He claims he wants no part of it at first but by the end he’s begging to get in on it. Me on Sunday = “This team might lose out.” Me on Wednesday afternoon = “I don’t see any scenario where Penn State doesn’t win by 75 points this week.” Also keep in mind Penn State won this game while hitting the total by themselves last year.
Clemson -6 @ Notre Dame // RISK 4.6 TO WIN 4
Clemson MONEYLINE @ Notre Dame // RISK 2.2 TO WIN 1
PARLAY #1 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 3
Arizona State +10.5 @ USC
Liberty +15 @ Virginia Tech
Two of my favorite plays for this weekend. Why not parlay em?
PARLAY #2 // RISK 1 TO WIN 21
Arizona State MONEYLINE @ USC
Liberty MONEYLINE @ Virginia Tech
Maybe you saw this coming. I am in disbelief that I am getting 21:1 odds on two football games that are COIN FLIPS. Just FYI your chances of landing on Heads twice in a row are 1 in 4, not 1 in 21.
PARLAY #3 // RISK 1 TO WIN 11.1
Clemson MONEYLINE @ Notre Dame
Houston @ Cincinnati MONEYLINE
Florida @ Georgia MONEYLINE
West Virginia @ Texas MONEYLINE
Michigan MONEYLINE @ Indiana
BYU MONEYLINE @ Boise State
South Alabama @ Coastal Carolina MONEYLINE
This isn’t rocket science. I’m picking a string of favorites and praying to god one of them doesn’t blow it.
PARLAY #4 // RISK 3.6 TO WIN 3
Houston @ Cincinnati MONEYLINE
West Virginia @ Texas MONEYLINE
South Alabama @ Coastal Carolina MONEYLINE
Trim the list to ABSOLUTELY POSITIVELY SURE WINNERS and up the units. Again, not rocket science.
That’s all folks. I think I will nail enough of these that we end up back in the “black” as me and my finance buddies like to say. And if not….that just means I’ll dominate Week 11. Water always finds its level.
PS – I just totaled all that up and I have 45.0 units in play. LOL. This could get ugly quick.