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Snaker’s Dozen: CFB National Championship

They weren’t kidding when they said it’s the most wonderful time of the year…

Apparently the only time of the year when I can consistently pick college football games is between Christmas and New Years. My second most profitable week of the season comes at the very end and it comes without the help of a 20 unit parlay. In fact, it comes without the help hurt of any parlays.

Who would have thought that the week I stick to straight up picks and avoid all moneylines and parlays results in me hitting on 64% of my bets?

Word Oh GIF from Word GIFs

This is one of those obvious teaching moments in life where you should pay attention and learn from it but instead you disregard the truth which is staring you right in the face. Because let’s be honest – I’m not going to stop betting parlays going forward. Now let’s take a look at the updated week-by-week results:

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graph

Don’t look now…but I’m only down 24.2 units heading into the final game of this college football season!

via GIPHY

As pathetic as that sounds to be down 24.2 units, if you look at the trend of that orange line between Week 9 to Week 14, I’m actually pretty thrilled. Fighting back from -45.7 to -24.2 units within a month’s time is no joke. 

And if you recall from my very first week of doing this – I am fully prepared to heave a few hail mary passes towards the endzone in order to get this thing back to even:

Hail mary or no hail mary – I feel a hell of a lot more comfortable trying to claw my way back from down 24 than I did from down 46. And according to the Snaker’s Dozen research department – anything within 35 points is entirely possible.

Now let’s stop theorizing and start figuring out how to win. But first – a quick look back at the bowl game results:

LAST WEEK’S THOUGHTS:

  • App State vs. North Texas OVER 65 // RISK 1.2 TO WIN 1 // WIN
  • Tulane vs. Nevada +3 // RISK 1.25 TO WIN 1 // WIN
  • UCF vs. BYU -5.5 // RISK 1.2 TO WIN 1 // WIN
  • Louisiana Tech +6.5 vs. Georgia Southern // RISK 1.3 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
  • Memphis -7.5 vs. FAU // RISK 1.2 TO WIN 1 // WIN
  • Hawaii +13.5 vs. Houston // RISK 1.2 TO WIN 1 // WIN
  • Marshall vs. Buffalo -3.5 // RISK 1.05 TO WIN 1 // WIN
  • Louisiana vs. UTSA OVER 57.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
  • Western Kentucky vs. Georgia State OVER 52.5 // RISK 1.05 TO WIN 1 // WIN
  • Liberty +6.5 vs. Coastal Carolina // RISK 1 TO WIN 1 // WIN
  • Oklahoma State (-115 ML) vs. Miami // RISK 1.15 TO WIN 1 // WIN
  • Texas vs. Colorado +8.5 // RISK 1.3 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
  • Wake Forest vs. Wisconsin OVER 51.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // WIN
  • Oklahoma vs. Florida OVER 69.5 // RISK 1.2 TO WIN 1 // WIN
  • Tulsa -2.5 vs. Miss. State // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
  • Ball State vs. San Jose State -9 // RISK 1.2 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
  • West Virginia vs. Army +7.5 // RISK 1.3 TO WIN 1 // WIN
  • Arkansas vs. TCU -4.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // CANCELLED
  • Cincinnati vs. Georgia -6.5 // RISK 1.3 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
  • Auburn vs. Northwestern -3.5 // RISK 1.05 TO WIN 1 // WIN
  • Notre Dame vs. Alabama -19.5 // RISK 1.2 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
  • Ohio State vs. Clemson OVER 66.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // WIN
  • NC State +3.5 vs. Kentucky // RISK 1.5 TO WIN 1 // WIN
  • Ole Miss vs. Indiana -7.5 // RISK 1.2 TO WIN 1 // LOSS
  • Oregon vs. Iowa State UNDER 57.5 // RISK 1.2 TO WIN 1 // WIN
  • Texas A&M vs. North Carolina +7.5 // RISK 1.1 TO WIN 1 // LOSS

NET WIN: +5.2 UNITS

A 16-9, +5.2 units record to wrap up the year. If I was an overweight NFL fan who didn’t understand the first thing about football strategy I’d stand up and scream “Let’s go!!”

via GIPHY

Let’s break this into two categories – noteworthy games and noteworthy bets. We’ll start with the noteworthy games…

BYU 49, UCF 23

The score to this one does not reflect the asskicking that it truly was. Holy shit BYU is good. Or maybe UCF is bad. I’m not sure which one of those things is correct, but I will forever wonder if BYU could have made a run at the national championship this season given some sort of experimental playoff bracket (which they 100% should have done).

Liberty 37, Coastal Carolina 34 (OT)

After being cancelled a few weeks earlier, this game lived up to the hype and then some. A group of undefeated mullet kids versus Hugh Freeze with nothing to lose? You knew this would be high-scoring with a side of dramatic finish. How on earth is Hugh Freeze not coaching SEC football at this point?

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Texas 55, Colorado 23

An unexpected (at least to me) asskicking. Idk who the hell that Casey Thompson kid was that came in for an injured Sam Ehlinger, but I’m legitimately convinced Texas will be back starting next year. Him and Sark working together could be DEADLY.

sark

Ball State 34, San Jose State 13

The game has been over for a week now, but I’m still waiting for San Jose to turn it on and mount a comeback. I’m thoroughly confused by this result. I guess the MAC is legit.

maction

Ohio State 49, Clemson 28

I have tried to rationalize this game 50 different ways, but at the end of the day, Ohio State might just be significantly better than Clemson of the 0-6 ACC.

Also – #FreeSkalski #CowboyCollar

And the noteworthy bets…

Hawaii (+13.5) 28, Houston 14

A no-doubter in every sense of the word. I don’t care that 40 guys on Houston were ineligible to play for grades/covid, there’s no reason the Rainbow Warriors should have opened at 14 point underdogs. 

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hawaii

Oklahoma State PK 37, Miami 34

I pick against Miami in bowl season blindly because it seems to work year after year. But I ABSOLUTELY DID NOT deserve to win this bet. D’Eriq King tearing his ACL is not how I want to win. Shit like this totally sucks. Thankfully, he has several months to recover before returning to Miami, but I still feel awful for him. And selfishly for football fans – this sort of stuff jeopardizes the future of these bowl games.

Oklahoma 55, Florida 20 OVER 69.5

No sweeter feeling in sports gambling than that meaningless late score to cover the Over.

Wait a minute I had Over 69,5…

Alabama (-19.5) 31, Notre Dame 14

Again, that score is a total misrepresentation of the actual game. This sucker was never close. And we all knew it wouldn’t be. I’m not sure why Notre Dame got the #4 seed considering I gave them a 5-year bowl ban after that Clemson asskicking in 2018. My thoughts on Notre Dame are the same every single year: Good team, but a complete waste of time to put them in the playoff. Somebody needs to remember to update their record in big games to 0 for 101.

So naturally, these bums cover the spread in backdoor fashion. “Good teams win, mediocre-ly good teams like Notre Dame cover.”

Texas A&M 41, UNC 27 (+7.5)

It’s been about a week since this one ended and I’m still livid. UNC could have won the game. You could almost say they should have won the game. Sam Howell with practice squad WRs played SIGNIFICANTLY better than vanilla ice cream Kellen Mond. UNC covers and even leads for most of the game before Mack Brown decides to go for it on 4th and 2 from his own 35 down 7 points with 3 timeouts in his pocket. And of course…

That’s enough recapping. Let’s get to the winners!

CFB NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP WINNERS

One last ride. One last chance to hit it big. One last football game.

Michael Scott Happy Cry GIF from Michaelscott GIFs

But this is no time for tears! Let’s focus up and win! FIND THAT PRIDE, DANNY!!!

The Rules of Sports Gambling by Snaker’s Dozen:

Rule #1 – You are due.
Rule #2 – See Rule #1.

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Ohio State vs. Alabama -7 // RISK 7.2 TO WIN 6

As much as I’d love to see a close game and have this shatter the expectations like it did in 2014 all over again….I just don’t think we’re going to get that. There has been one game this season where I was convinced Ohio State is really good and that was last week against Clemson. A Clemson team that at one point lost to Notre Dame who historically can’t win a big game. The same Clemson team who then avenged their loss in convincing fashion by beating ND in the ACC Championship without so much as breaking a sweat. 

I don’t know what to make of all of that in hindsight, but for now – I’m not so convinced about last week’s OSU vs. Clemson game. Maybe OSU caught them on a bad night or maybe OSU is starting to click at the right time. But I don’t think that result was totally indicative of OSU’s capabilities. And the reason I feel that way is due to their defense. Here’s what the numbers say:

Ohio State is giving up 280 YPG through the air which ranks 119th in the country. My cause for concern is that they’ve played the following offenses with these Pass YPG rankings:

  • Nebraska (103)
  • Penn State (37)
  • Rutgers (91)
  • Indiana (41)
  • Michigan State (54)
  • Northwestern (95)
  • Clemson (3)
Remove Clemson from the equation and melt those other 6 opponents into one not-so-super team. What’d you’d get is a hypothetical game where the 70th best passing attack in the country put up 260 passing yards on OSU (which would rank them about 105th in Pass YPG before the Clemson game). That makes zero sense. Basically that tells me this defense played shitty offenses for 2 months and managed to create inversely proportional results. 
It’s been an ongoing discussion throughout the season that this OSU secondary is struggling, but those above numbers are beyond struggling. Third-ranked Clemson passing offense managed to throw for a quiet 400 yards and did it without the real threat of a veteran receiver. 

Alabama has the 6th best ranked passing offense in the country, but the difference here is they have two very talented receivers and potentially a third returning from injury. I’m not sure what that little musclehead of a D-Coordinator on OSU is dialing up this week – but it’s no secret that their best corner has been the most overrated player in the country this year. So what will Ohio State do to plan on slowing down the best receiver (and most outstanding player) in the country?

via GIPHY

I’m trying not to overthink this – and what I’m thinking is that Alabama will stretch the field so badly that they will run and throw for 600+ yards of casual offense and score 45+ points. That doesn’t mean I don’t think Ohio State won’t have their own set of fireworks (we’ll discuss that next), but I don’t think they have quite enough to keep it a 1-score game. Plus with the amount of COVID speculation coming from OSU in comparison to the Alabama roster which is probably at herd immunity – I may get some free value here by the time the ball is kicked.

Ohio State vs. Alabama OVER 75 // RISK 4.4 TO WIN 4

I’ve already discussed why I think Alabama gets to 45+. Now do you want to see why I think Ohio State can get to 30+?

While I think Ohio State’s passing defense legitimately sucks…I have a personal theory (which I have done zero research to back up) that Alabama’s defense isn’t actually all that bad. There’s a reason they are ranked 81st, but that reason isn’t for lack of talent in the secondary. Instead – I think we have a classic case of “Big 12 Defense” going on here. 

Everyone loves to rip on the Big 12 defenses over the last few years and point to how many points they give up. But has anyone stopped to consider the fact that their offenses are racing the entire length of the field in 120 seconds of real time? The secondary of a team in which its offense attempts to score every possession with three giant throws down the field is being handed an impossible task. Think about how much harder it is to run next to a receiver who knows where he’s going (while you don’t) when your legs are jelly and you’re completely gassed. It’d be like keeping the same line of NHL guys on the ice for 3 straight periods.

So if you haven’t figured out where I’m going with this – I think it’s fair to say that Alabama’s defense is fighting the uphill battle of an incredibly fast-paced game every single Saturday.

And then to compound this track-meet effect, both defenses have fared very well against the rush. In my expert opinion I think this should encourage each other to take more chances throwing the ball.

So in conclusion…..more passing = more incompletions  = more clock stoppages = more completions = more chunk plays = more scoring opportunities =  MORE POINTS.

Oh and one last thing:

Ohio State vs. Alabama OVER 80 // RISK 2 TO WIN 3

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Alabama TEAM TOTAL OVER 38.5 // RISK 3 TO WIN 2

Ohio State TEAM TOTAL OVER 33.5 // RISK 2.1 TO WIN 2

See above logic and below gif

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Winning Margin: Alabama by 13-18 // RISK 1 TO WIN 6.8

Winning Margin: Alabama by 19-24 // RISK 1 TO WIN 9

If Alabama doesn’t win by 13-18 they’ll win by 19-24. You can take that to the bank.

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Winning Margin: Ohio State by 7-12 // RISK 1 TO WIN 12

A little insurance. Just in case I’m absolutely dead wrong about everything – this will give me 12 units to wipe up my tears with.

Total Points Range: Between 31-40 // RISK 1 TO WIN 33

Andddd a little more insurance.

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Double Result: Tie/Alabama // RISK 0.5 TO WIN 7.5

One of my favorite bets (that I don’t think I’ve ever hit in my career). I’m positive Alabama will win. So if somehow, some way this sucker is tied at the half – I get 15:1 returns. EA$Y MONEY.

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Longest TD Yardage in the Game: UNDER 67.5 YDS // RISK 2.5 TO WIN 2

Man, I hate to do it, but that’s a long ass score. Neither of these teams were close to scoring from that distance last week.

(As I finished typing out that above sentence I realized how meaningless it was to bring that up. If anything, it probably means someone is due to break off a 75 yard touchdown. So by all means – look for Devonta Smith to be jogging 10 yards out in front of the closest defender and catch a bomb in the second quarter.)

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Total Interceptions Thrown by Mac Jones OVER 0.5 // RISK 1 TO WIN 1

Even odds on this seems too good to be true. I am well aware of Mac Jones’ efficiency this year – but Over/Under 0.5??

We’re talking one deflected pass. One overshoot off the receivers hands. One “hes’s hit as he throws!”

Let’s take a look at the numbers:

The analytics nerds will tell me he needs to throw 90 passes in order to throw an interception. But the Snaker’s Dozen Calculator says otherwise:

CALCULATING…

CALCULATING…

*MAC JONES NEEDS TO THROW 31 PASSES TO RECORD AN INTERCEPTION IN THIS GAME*

Damn. I only need 31 attempts to cash this bet. Give me the over.

Total Rushing Yards by Mac Jones UNDER 9.5 // RISK 2.4 TO WIN 2

Honestly I had ZERO intention of making a Mac Jones rushing yards prop bet, but I happened to notice his rushing totals when I went to check in on his passing stats. Take another look at this:

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Ummm…what am I missing? Why was this line set at 9.5 yards? He’s done that once – last week. And it took him a season high 5 rushing attempts to get there. In the 11 other games he’s played in – he has a combined total of NEGATIVE 9 yards.

He’s averaging 1 fucking INCH per carry on the year. So unless he has about 100 rushing attempts – I think I’m going to win this bet.

I’ll take the under and I’ll take my 2 units.

Total Completions by Justin Fields OVER 21.5 // RISK 2.4 TO WIN 2

I am sticking with my gut here and assuming Alabama is going to score early and often in a track-meet type game. Therefore OSU is going to have to throw to try and keep up. At first glance 21.5 completions doesn’t sound like a lot for a guy that has completed 3 of every 4 pass attempts this season. If his season completion percentage holds true in this game – I only need about 30 passing attempts. So yeah, gimme the Over.

John Metchie to Have 2+ Touchdowns and Alabama to Win // RISK 1.5 TO WIN 7.8

It would only make sense for this guy to have a coming-out-party in the Championship game so ESPN can talk about him all offseason long as the next DeVonta Smith. I don’t like this bet so much if Waddle is at 100%, but I’ll take my chances that he won’t be.

John Metchie to Have 150+ Yards and 2+ Touchdowns // RISK 0.5 TO WIN 8.5

If I’m going to bet the above – I might as well get nuts and take this too.

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Oh what could have been....

First Score of the Game: Ohio State FG // RISK 0.5 TO WIN 4.5

First Score of the Game: Alabama FG // RISK 0.5 TO WIN 4

I’m always a big fan of this move. I have never tried to crunch the numbers – but taking both sides to kick a field goal as the first score always feels way more valuable than the combined 4:1 odds. It only takes one sack or a few shitty passes to stall the opening drive and have it result in a 35 yard field goal.

via GIPHY

Odd/Even Total Points: ODD // RISK 1.2 TO WIN 1

I have no idea what the data says on this type of thing, but Even was -110 and Odd was -120. So sounds like the points total will be an odd number.

Team to Get First Penalty: Ohio State // RISK 1.2 TO WIN 1

I’m guessing Nick Saban’s pre-game speech for a National Championship game goes something like this: “If you take an early penalty in this game I will personally shoot you. Now let’s get out there and win!”

No way an Alabama player gets penalized in the 1st quarter. If I could get odds on it – I’d bet on the first penalty of this game being a defensive holding against the OSU secondary.

Team to Call First Timeout: Alabama // RISK 1.2 TO WIN 1

On second thought – it wouldn’t be a Championship game if we didn’t get a camera shot of Nick Saban ripping off his headset and going ballistic on the sideline. Let’s assume we get one of those situations where Mac Jones takes his eyes off the play clock and Bama has to save him with a timeout from the sideline.

*camera pans to Nick Saban*

CHEAT CARROLL PARLAY // RISK 2 TO WIN 42

I’d be doing a disservice to myself if I didn’t close this season out with one more failed attempt at the Cheat Carroll ‘WHY NOT US’ Parlay. 

Being that I’ve only got one game to work with – I will accomplish this longshot by parlaying a bunch of player performance TD props.

  • Chris Olave to have 1+ TDs (-200)
  • Garrett Wilson to have 1+ TDs (+100)
  • DeVonta Smith to have 2+ TDs (-200)
  • John Metchie to have 1+ TDs (-111)
  • Trey Sermon to have 1+ TDs (-333)
  • Mac Jones to have 4+ Passing TDs (-143)
  • Justin Fields to have 3+ Passing TDs (-156)

(+2100 Odds)

I’d say that thing has a better chance of pushing than losing. Last game of the year, can’t hold anything back now. LET’S GET ONE, CHEAT! WHY NOT US!?

I am overcome with a wave as sadness as I type this last paragraph. I can’t believe the Snaker’s Dozen picks are coming to an end. It feels like just yesterday that I was watching the SEC play football while the Big Ten had their thumbs up their asses waiting for COVID cases to increase before kicking their season off. But here we are. I’ll be back next week to recap and assess the final damages. Enjoy the big game, folks!

via GIPHY

LAST WEEK: +5.2 units

SEASON: -24.2 units

(SEASON RECORD: 70-102-3)

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This Post Has One Comment

  1. b2best.at March 30, 2025 Reply

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