We’re back ladies and gentlemen. I hope you all had a joyous holiday season, and more importantly, a profitable bowl season. They say it’s the most wonderful time of the year (and it is), but I managed to rattle off an 18-19 boring ass bowl record.
I sure hope I can do what I’ve been saying I was going to do for the last 2 months and right this ship. Because I’ve only got one more chance to mitigate the massive unit damage I’ve done to myself this season.
CFB BOWL GAMES RECAP
PT 1: PARLAY #1 (+260) // RISK 2.0 to WIN 5.2
PT 2: PARLAY #1 (+510) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 5.1
PT 2: PARLAY #2 (+600) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 6.0
PT 2: PARLAY #3 (+1400) // RISK 0.5 to WIN 7.0
PT 1: LONGSHOT CHEAT CARROLL ‘WHY NOT US’ PARLAY (+1270) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 12.7
PT 2: LONGSHOT CHEAT CARROLL ‘WHY NOT US’ PARLAY (+9000) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 90.0
Well looky there! If it isn’t a case of the old ‘I went about .500 on my picks and 0-for on my parlays‘!
Fun, fun, fun. Another negative nine unit week has us closing in on the -40 mark.
How many idiots do you know that would be down 30+ units this year purely on parlays, and then proceed to rattle off 6 more during bowl season? Oh, just me? Yeah I figured.
My thoughts on the bowl games in no particular thought-out order:
My first indication that things were going to go poorly this bowl season was the Toledo Rockets. Despite being favored by 10, they lost outright and they needed a garbage time TD to make this game look sort of close.
But it wasn’t.
Note to self for the ’22 season: Losing Billy Napier doesn’t mean Louisiana won’t run hurry-up offense and run up the score instead of going into victory formation.
Shame on me for not realizing the Western Kentucky QB (and the officials) would do everything in their power to break all of the single season passing records.
A HISTORIC SEASON!
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) December 18, 2021
Bailey Zappe with the greatest statistical season in NCAA history 🔥 pic.twitter.com/1bU4VZsPRn
When up is down and left is right and you can’t buy a gambling win, there’s ALWAYS one thing you can count on except for like 5 times this season:
HUGH.
Great call by me here. I had the Under 58 and Wyoming nearly took it out by themselves. I only lost this bet by 30+.
Maybe I shouldn’t blindly assume that a December game in Idaho featuring Wyoming will be 10 degrees and windy. Here’s what my idiotic brain was picturing:
I’m sorry to be ‘that’ guy with the unoriginal take, but these four SEC teams losing to these four “inferior” opponents is absolutely hilarious.
Houston and UCF is one thing. But take a second to think about this – LSU lost to Kansas State (yes I know the roster was decimated but lets not act like they weren’t giving up 7 yards a carry). And Missouri LOST TO ARMY.
The Armed Forces Bowl goes to Army!
— The Athletic CFB (@TheAthleticCFB) December 23, 2021
Cole Talley hits a game-winning FG to beat Missouri as time expires.
🎥 @espnpic.twitter.com/i9Sn5Sh0Sn
And the cherry on top is that all 4 of these SEC schools finish with a losing record. But tell me again how great the middle-tier of the SEC is.
“I can’t explain it, it just means more down there, guys!”
I was leaning towards picking the 6’9″ backup Nevada QB to cover the spread but thank god I took the over. Turns out Nate Cox is a 6’9″ senior who has never played for a reason.
the NATE COX EXPERIENCE pic.twitter.com/cTQgBgUSAH
— The Transfer Portal CFB (@TPortalCFB) December 27, 2021
Have I mentioned how unimpressed I am with the SEC outside of Alabama and Georgia?
I’m glad everyone (myself included) talked about how Mike Leach could get his revenge on Texas Tech just for him to get blown out by a team that fired its head coach. Really impressive stuff by another SEC juggernaut!
On a lighter note, lets revisit the Craig James’ kid vs. Mike Leach episode at Texas Tech.
⬇️ *Skip to the end at 31:00* ⬇️
⬆️ *Skip to the end at 31:00* ⬆️
If you hesitated to take that douchebag PJ Fleck and his newly hired WVU spy in this game for even one second then shame on you. Minnesota -4 goes down as quite possibly the most obvious and easiest cover of my life.
I vowed to lose my shirt betting on Clemson in this game and as it turns out I can afford to buy a second shirt. Still scratching my head about making Clemson and Iowa State (minus Breece Hall) a pickem.
If you didn’t think Dabo and Clemson was going to take the Cheez-It Bowl seriously then you haven’t been paying attention to the weirdo that is Dabo.
One of the most under-discussed things in college football right now is how Dabo has taken Clemson’s awesome entrance and made it all about himself. This is weird.
— Brandon Walker (@BWalkerSEC) September 23, 2021
pic.twitter.com/59dNTVHU9g
The 2021 season will go down as the year that Virginia Tech kicked the Snaker’s Dozen’s ass for 4 months straight. I’ll never understand this VT team. I purposely stayed away from betting them +4.5 (even though I loved it) and opted to bet on the under (because I am about 0-6 when betting on VT this year).
By my god they still found a way to burn me. They give up a cool 30 points in the second half (and respond with zero of their own).
“We are gonna play a great brand of defense”
— Maryland Terrapins (@umterps) December 29, 2021
😬 pic.twitter.com/7RCVy9IR6X
Ok, it’s official. The 2021 Tennessee team is now the most overrated team in the history of college football and second place isn’t close.
They won ONE meaningful game this year. One game! And it was against a Will Levis-led Kentucky.
Happy New Year! Crazy to think @coachjoshheupel was hired January 27. His day 1 message- “We’re good enough to WIN Right Now”. Great leaders don’t find excuses, they find a way. 2022 @Vol_Football All ⛽️ no Brakes🍊🍊 pic.twitter.com/O9EBtXlVzI
— Mike Ekeler (@CoachEkelerUT) January 1, 2022
So Tennessee wraps up the year by failing to cover to a Purdue team missing it’s two best players…and oh I almost forgot to mention – that brings them to 5-8 ATS this spread this year.
I’ve never seen such a welcome reception to going 5-8 ATS. “UT is back.” “Heupel is the guy.” “Tennessee is fun again!”
Personally, I can not wait to make a fortune betting against Tennessee next season.
Well that was worth it. Two straight years of bitching about Cincinnati being a “real contender”. Two years that went on.
All so I could watch a slightly above average team look like they were completely outclassed in their super bowl of an opportunity. At no point did it ever look like Cincinnati posed a serious threat to score on Alabama. They picked up 9 first downs over the first three quarters. Meanwhile Alabama averaged 6.5 yards per carry. GOOD STUFF.
Shoutout to all the American Athletic Conference apologists. I hope you enjoyed watching that nailbiter.
If you thought the Alabama game was an asskicking, then what do you call this one?
Potential game of the year. I want to personally thank all of those other diva wide receivers on Ohio State for opting out of the goddam Rose Bowl so I could watch the one guy accumulate all 350 of those receiving yards by himself.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba hit the BURNERS to score 🔥 pic.twitter.com/TatHql3xZ6
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 1, 2022
The fact that Utah found a way to keep up with Ohio State is what made this such an incredible game. I’ll never diss Steve the Pirate aka Cam Rising again.
There’s nothing quite like watching your favorite team try to tackle after 7 starters on defense opt out of the game. And there’s nothing, and I mean nothing, more enjoyable than watching Sean Clifford throw shitty passes and take sacks.
Before we get to the Championship picks, let’s reassess how we got to our present state of -36 units (the answer is we got here by losing a million parlays).
Kind of mindblowing to see that I was up +20 units as late as Week 7. And I had totally forgot about rallying back to break even in Week 12. Losing 36 units in the last month leading up to this Championship game is downright impressive.
But anyway, who gives a shit? Let’s dominate this final game! Snaker’s Dozen one last ride!!!!
The Rules of Sports Gambling by Snaker’s Dozen:
Rule #1 – You are due.
Rule #2 – See Rule #1.
Rule #3 – When it starts to hurt, turn up the dial. More units. Also, see Rule #1.
🏆 CFB 2022 NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP WINNERS 🏆
FIVE DAYS AWAY 🏆
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) January 5, 2022
One question remains ... Whose belief is strongest? #CFBPlayoff pic.twitter.com/9yIezAQxjj
Georgia -2.5 vs Alabama (-119) // RISK 5.35 to WIN 4.5
Georgia MONEYLINE vs Alabama (-140) // RISK 3.5 to WIN 2.5
In the words of Dan Hicks calling Tiger’s final putt of the 2008 US Open…EXPECT ANYTHING DIFFERENT!?
I’ll try to keep this relatively short and sweet. I love the Dawgs. I woudn’t pick against Mattural’s Dawgs if the spread was -99.5 UGA. I just wouldn’t.
BUT that being said…I think this may be a momentous game in the college football world. Quite possibly a changing of the guard.
Georgia is the team of destiny. It’s all in front of them. A chacne to avenge their SEC Championship loss to Alabama and prove once and for all that the anaconda-style defense can still win a Championship in the modern era (as long as you can score a few TDs too).
My prediction on how this game goes:
- Georgia’s D dials up answers in response to the first matchup. They find a way to get pressure and rattle Bryce Young. I’m thinking 3+ sacks and a turnover. Maybe 20+ incompletions.
- Alabama hits on a few explosive plays and puts up passing yards and points, but not to the extent that Georgia’s offense can’t keep up with.
- Georgia’s offense surprises people (dumb people) and they score 30+ on Alabama led by the most disrespected player in the country – Stetson Bennett.
The bottom line is that Vegas made the Dawgs the favorite in this rematch for a reason. I don’t think we saw both teams firing on all cylinders the first time they played. And that SEC Championship game will benefit Georgia more than it would Alabama in terms of gameplanning.
Give me the Dawgs to cover. Give me the Dawgs moneyline.
GO DAWGS.
Georgia -8 vs Alabama (+200) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 2.0
Just in case the Dawgs go into complete asskicking mode.
PS – if Georgia -8 is +200 then what can I get on Nick Saban having some sort of ‘Coach K medical emergency’ on the field??? Give me like a pulmonary embolism / heart attack for +2000 ALL DAY LOOONGUH.
Georgia Team Total OVER 27.5 vs Alabama (-115) // RISK 2.3 to WIN 2.0
This seems alarmingly easy…
Even if Georgia doesn’t succeed in victory – I imagine they could put up 10 points in garbage time. I don’t see a world where they can’t put up 4 TDs on an Alabama team that gave up that number to Florida, Texas A&M, and Arkansas.
Georgia vs. Alabama OVER 52 (-110) // RISK 2.2 to WIN 2.0
Again, we either get Georgia outscoring Alabama and putting up 30+ points or we get another Alabama runaway game (we had better not or I will be broke).
This one is going over.
Bryce Young Rushing Yds UNDER 8.5 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
I’m just going to come out and say it: I hate this bet. I despise this bet.
But I am forced to take this bet because I had the rushing total Under on Fat Mac Jones last year and he somehow managed to go over. Water always finds its level. It will make no sense, but Young will end up with 5 or less yards rushing.
James Cook Rushing Yds OVER 99.5 (+520) // RISK 0.5 to WIN 2.6
Look out for this man to run wild and make a name for himself headed into the NFL Draft. (Even though he already has a name for himself because his older brother is an all-world RB that is also a piece of trash human being.)
George Pickens 1+ TDs (+120) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 1.2
ICYMI George Pickens is back and he also happens to be an absolute freak of nature.
I don’t have the slightest clue how healthy he really is and whether he’s going to snag a TD. But I can tell you right now that I am 99.9% certain at some point in this football game “The Mailman” is gonna sling one up towards the back corner of the endzone and Pickens is going to be in the vicinity.
At plus-odds I will take my chances with him hauling in that pass.
Jermaine Burton Receiving Yds OVER 34.5 (-110) // RISK 2.2 to WIN 2.0
With the emergence of Brock Bowers, I feel like this dude is the most underrated and forgotten player on Georgia’s offense. I love the fact that he can cover his entire receiving total with one deep shot over the middle or a rollout chuck down the sideline.
Nakobe Dean Total Tackles + Assists OVER 5.5 (-120) // RISK 1.2 to WIN 1.0
I expect Georgia’s leading tackler to be all over the field in the final game of his collegiate career.
First TD Scorer: JAMES COOK (+800) // RISK 0.5 to WIN 4.0
First TD Scorer: BRYCE YOUNG (+2500) // RISK 0.5 to WIN 12.5
First TD Scorer: GEORGIA D/ST (+3300) // RISK 0.5 to WIN 16.5
Who doesn’t love a good First TD Scorer Longshot?
Team to Call First Timeout: BAMA (-120) // RISK 1.2 to WIN 1.0
Team to Commit First Penalty: BAMA (-120) // RISK 1.2 to WIN 1.0
A tradition unlike any other. Pray that Alabama commits a stupid penalty or has a play clock issue and then watch Nick Saban lose his goddam mind.
Special Teams/Defensive TD to be Scored: YES (+200) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 2.0
Don’t ask me why, but I can practically close my eyes and see some 250 pound dude in a red/white jersey scooping up a fumble and streaking towards the endzone with trackstar speed.
Most Receiving Yds in the Game: Jermaine Burton (+2200) // RISK 0.5 to WIN 11.0
These odds are entirely too good to pass up.
First Turnover of the Game: FUMBLE (+155) // RISK 2.0 to WIN 3.1
We have two quarterbacks known for taking care of the football and have a combined total of 12 interceptions on the year. Together these guys average one interception every 63 passes. I think it’s quite possible that this game features zero interceptions. A strip sack seems much more likely and I’m getting +155 odds on it.
Halftime-Fulltime Result: DRAW-UGA (+1600) // RISK 0.5 to WIN 8.0
Halftime-Fulltime Result: DRAW-BAMA (+2000) // RISK 0.5 to WIN 10.0
This is ALWAYS a dumbass bet, but for some reason I’m addicted to doing it. I’ll be the guy cheering for the game to be tied at the half.
Winning Margin: BAMA BY 13-18 (+800) // RISK 0.5 to WIN 4.0
Winning Margin: BAMA BY 19-24 (+1200) // RISK 0.5 to WIN 6.0
Nothing to see here, just me buying some insurance.
And now to wrap up, let’s introduce a few stupid parlays!
PARLAY #1 (+1000) // RISK 0.5 to WIN 5.0
- Georgia D/ST to Score TD (+540)
- Georgia MONEYLINE (-140)
PARLAY #2 (+1900) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 19.0
- Brock Bowers 2+ TDs (+300)
- Zamir White 2+ TDs (+500)
PARLAY #3 (+2400) // RISK 0.2 to WIN 4.8
- Bryce Young 1+ TDs (+400)
- Stetson Bennett+ TDs (+400)
PARLAY #4 (+2000) // RISK 0.4 to WIN 8.0
- Bryce Young 425+ Pass Yds (+540)
- Bryce Young 4+ Pass TDs (+230)
PARLAY #5 (+4900) // RISK 0.3 to WIN 14.7
- Bryce Young 425+ Pass Yds (+540)
- Bryce Young 4+ Pass TDs (+230)
- Bama MONEYLINE (+115)
PARLAY #6 (+9000) // RISK 0.3 to WIN 27.0
- Bryce Young 500+ Pass Yds (+900)
- Bryce Young 5+ Pass TDs (+800)
PARLAY #7 (+10800) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 108.0
- Slade Bolden 1+ TDs (+175)
- Brian Robinson Jr 1+ TDs (-143)
- Brock Bowers 1+ TDs (+100)
- George Pickens 1+ TDs (+120)
- James Cook 2+ TDs (+500)
LONGSHOT CHEAT CARROLL ‘WHY NOT US’ PARLAY (+30750) // RISK 0.4 to WIN 123.0
- Bryce Young 3+ Pass TDs (+10)
- Bryce Young 28+ Completions (+117)
- Stetson Bennett 255+ Pass Yds (-114)
- Stetson Bennett 1+ TDs (+400)
- Jermaine Burton 35+ Receiving Yds (-114)
- James Cook 43+ Rushing Yds (-114)
- Slade Bolden 1+ TDs (+175)
- Zamir White 1+ TDs (+100)
Welp, as I sit here typing this final line I can’t believe I have placed my last college football bet for the season. Good luck to all and let’s hope we at least get a good game (if we end up losing 20 more units backing Georgia).
BOWL GAMES NET: -9.4 Units
BOWL GAMES (EXCLUDING PARLAYS): -2.9 Units (18-19-0)
SEASON (EXCLUDING PARLAYS): +1.85 Units (169-159-1)
SEASON DAMAGE DUE TO STUPID PARLAYS: -38.15 Units (7-57)
NET LOSS: -36.3 Units 
PS – how funny is it that I have an “easy money” gif in this blog every week and it sits directly below where I outline my -36 unit asskicking…