POSITIVE UNITS IN WEEK 0.
BIG UNITS IN WEEK 1.
GINORMOUS UNITS IN WEEK 2.
WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO IN WEEK 3, HERB!?
LIVE LOOK AT ME VS. BOVADA:
In a week where I irresponsibly sprayed the entire board and put out 27 plays, I managed to churn out another +15.5 units. This brings my total through the first 3 weeks up to +22.15 units. And that only leaves us with one question:
To be honest Mr. Lombardi, I can’t explain to you what the hell is going on over here at the Snaker’s Dozen. All I know is that every single week seems to result in me making more money than the previous. Let’s take a look back at Week 2 and try to understand what I did right.
🏈 CFB WEEK 2 RECAP 🏈
PARLAY #1 (-120) // RISK 1.2 to WIN 1.0
PARLAY #2 (+227) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 2.5
LONGSHOT CHEAT CARROLL ‘WHY NOT US’ PARLAY (+24800) // RISK 0.5 to WIN 124.0
My thoughts on the games in no particular thought-out order:
Against all odds I finally managed to hit one of those stupid ass Teasers. Funny how that works. My 7 game teasers always seem to lose, but when I string together a simple Thursday night 2-teamer it hits. Shoutout to UTEP-Boise and Kansas-Coastal for coming through with 138 total points and cashing both Overs. (Sidenote – I would not want to be a Kansas football fan right now.)
I was all over this Iowa game, but I don’t even want to take any credit for it. Every year we pretend this game is going to be interesting and then Iowa proceeds to pound Iowa State in a low scoring 1970s style football game. I was a bit worried I was taking the cheese on a rat game, but it turns out that Brock Purdy is Purdy bad after all.
Though I was on Oregon with the points, I can’t say I expected them to dominate this game like they did. Despite missing their two best defensive players they managed to hold Ohio State to 28 point. And their offense matched up against OSU’s D looked like the Kansas City Chiefs vs. the New York Jets.
Let’s all take a moment to enjoy that asshole Ohio State homer Ari Wasserman being wildly incorrect about this game:
🎧 @TheAthletic's Best on the Board
— Michael Beller (@MBeller) September 9, 2021
🎙️ @AriWasserman, @TheDanSanto and me
🏈 Penn State -22 vs. Ball State
🐂 Texas -7 at Arkansas
🤠🏴☠️ Cowboys-Buccaneers props
And more!
🍎 https://t.co/766eo4hNUs
✳️ https://t.co/ojGyenlM5r pic.twitter.com/ZahCQuKskR
When I saw this spread surpass 3 scores I assumed Ball State would look bad. But holy shit – I was not prepared to watch Penn State play a high school football team. I would be curious to check out the broken tackle stats in this game but that wouldn’t account for the amount of times PSU’s RBs bounced out around the edge like your nephew does in his PeeWee football games.
My more confident play here was the Over, and that ended up being my biggest loser of the weekend. I actually had a chance to backdoor when Ball State drove down the field on PSU’s 7th stringers, but the QB threw his 17th and last shitty duck of the game as time expired. God I love college football.
I’m lumping these two games together because I had the right idea in the wrong game. Right church, wrong pew.
Will the Thrill Levis held off my Missouri Tigers on the moneyline, but the Hogs blew the doors off Texas and covered by a whopping 27 points. HOLY HOG!
November 14th, 2011...Houdini was in the house. #WPS pic.twitter.com/ipWfWsnAfo
— Arkansas Razorback Football (@RazorbackFB) November 4, 2020
This is the type of bet where if you have Army -7.5 you take your phone and fire it across the room at your living room wall.
Or if you are like me and have Western Kentucky +7.5 you pump your fist and say “I deserved that.”
I’m still not sure who the person is who decides Miami is going to be good every year, but to whoever you are – Thank You. I will continue to profit off how insultingly overrated they are.
Shoutout to that bartender in Pittsburgh who “just assumed” everyone was 21 and gave me the inspiration to “just assume” Tulsa’s defense is still good. We cover easily and damn near win this one outright.
If you are losing to Purdue by 49 points then it’s time to re-evaluate your program. These poor bastards at UConn can’t catch a break, but they leave me no choice but to continue to fade them. I don’t care if I see a UConn +100.5 line, I will take the opposing team.
The service academy Unders continue to hit at 75% and Vegas doesn’t seem to give a shit. I throw around the term ‘Free Money’ a lot, but these games are seriously the closest things we will ever see to free money.
I never thought I’d see the day where John Donovan became a household name but here we are. This Washington offense is so abysmal that we need to monitor all Huskies Totals with a microscope going forward.
The over doesn’t cash, but Liberty does and Hugh Freeze has a message for the Snaker’s Dozen:
Stanford wins outright and covers by 30+ ! If anyone out there was questioning Danny David Shaw’s PRIDE (that would be me), then think again!
I may or may have not fallen asleep at halftime and woke up to a text during the 4th quarter from T-Man that said “EZ MONEY.” Whatever you are doing with your life on Saturdays at 2AM – Stop doing it and start betting on Hawaii late night Totals.
Last, but most certainly not least. Take a long, hard look at that Cheat Carroll Longshot Parlay.
That was Tulsa’s game to lose (and they did), and Nebraska wouldn’t beat Buffalo like that again if they played 100 more times. (Sidenote – Scott Frost is still on schedule to get shitcanned at 2-6). The Cheat Carroll Parlay is getting DANGEROUSLY close to effing around and reeling in a big one.
From an overall perspective, the 2021 Snaker’s Dozen is exceeding my wildest expectations through 3 weeks. I am the Captain of this ship and I’ll be the first one to tell you we are officially in uncharted waters. I’ve never been up 20+ units in my life. At this point in time we have no choice but to check our compass (aka the official rulebook):
The Rules of Sports Gambling by Snaker’s Dozen:
Rule #1 – You are due.
Rule #2 – See Rule #1.
Rule #3 – When it starts to hurt, turn up the dial. More units. Also, see Rule #1.
🏈 CFB WEEK 3 WINNERS 🏈
Ohio @ Louisiana Lafayette UNDER 57.5 (-110) // RISK 2.2 to WIN 2.0
Thursday night MACtion returns with a big game between Ohio and Louisiana Lafayette. I know the cool trendy thing is to talk about how fun the MAC is, but this game is GROSS.
ULL might be the most disappointing team in football thus far. After getting manhandled by Texas they squeaked out a 27-24 victory against the Nicholls Colonels last seek. Meanwhile, Ohio is coming off a loss to 29-point underdog Duquesne on their home field. You read that correct – Duquesne.
Let me reiterate again – this game is gross. These teams are bad. The offenses have been horrible. The only reason that total is 57.5 is because the defenses have also stunk.
But the research department has crunched the numbers, and I am confident these two teams will underwhelm in the points category.
UCF -6 @ Louisville (-130) // RISK 1.3 to WIN 1.0
UCF @ Louisville OVER 67.5 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
I have no idea why I am placing 2 bets on this game that I have zero confidence in, but here we are. My gut is telling me to take UCF by a TD. And given the tempo of UCF and the pathetic-ness of Louisville, I would imagine UCF can put 45 points solo.
Also – I don’t know how anyone is convincing themself to bet on Louisville at this point. Doesn’t everybody else feel like Louisville is riding the rest of this season out with a corpse as their head coach? Didn’t this guy try to shoot his shot elsewhere and got shut out so he came crawling back to Louisville?
— Coach Satterfield (@CoachSattUofL) November 25, 2020
Scott Satterfield has penned a letter to season ticket holders again apologizing for the South Carolina interview and subsequent handling. If Vince and the players are committed and he follows through then I think everyone can move on. pic.twitter.com/9H0kIORrq6
— Mark Ennis (@MarkEnnis) December 10, 2020
Give me the UCF tryhards in a high-scoring affair.
Maryland @ Illinois OVER 59.5 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
Another Friday night game that nobody gives a shit about outside of gambling. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I think Illinois games are becoming exciting. Whenever Illinois isn’t scoring points, they are busy giving them up.
I am genuinely interested to see if Maryland can come close to hitting the Over 59.5 by themselves. This seems like a perfect flex spot for Tua’s younger brother. I watched him throw for 40 yards per attempt against Penn State last year so I don’t see why he couldn’t do that same thing to Illinois.
Virginia Tech MONEYLINE @ West Virginia (+125) // RISK 0.8 to WIN 1.0
This is a complete RAT game.
And it’s a total SQUARE pick.
I’m acknowledging those two things and yet I’m still taking the VT Moneyline. Say what you want about me, but I will go to war with the boice – and I am riding with my guy Ziggy and VT in this one.
Cincinnati MONEYLINE @ Indiana (-175) // RISK 1.75 to WIN 1.0
I think everybody is starting to catch on to how bad Indiana is. I thought I’d get a better price on this than -175, but free money is free money.
UConn @ Army -34 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
I am absolutely, positively, 100% certain this is the first and only time I will ever pick Army -34 in my lifetime. If you think about it that way, it makes this bet kind of exciting.
5 TDs is a lot for a military academy, but a principle is a principle. I pledge to continue to fade UConn until they prove they can cover something.
PS – Imagine being the social media guy that had to hit ‘send’ on this tweet:
— UConn Football (@UConnFootball) September 11, 2021
Michigan State +7.5 @ Miami (-130) // RISK 1.3 to WIN 1.0
Miami is 0-2 and failing to cover the spread by 9 points on average. Good thing Vegas adjusted and made them a pick’em with a Michigan State team who looks pretty good through 2 games.
Oh wait, we are still pretending Miami is a touchdown better than a team that is their equivalent? Ok I’ll take my 7.5 free points, thanks.
Miami brought the turnover chain out while down 27-0 to Alabama, and then put it back in storage after the call was overturned 😬 pic.twitter.com/lIQT0RSnij
— The Sporting News (@sportingnews) September 4, 2021
Nebraska @ Oklahoma -22.5 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
Friendly reminder for the 17th time that Scott Frost is going to be 2-6 and get fired this year.
Minnesota @ Colorado -2 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
You gotta be one sick puppy to bet on this game. But PJ Fleck has the most punchable face in the entire world. Give me Colorado to win by a field goal and also give me that number for that gamblers help hotline.
Alabama -16 @ Florida (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
Alabama @ Florida OVER 58.5 (-120) // RISK 1.2 to WIN 1.0
I am not convinced that the Florida QB with the dreads is good whatsoever. I am hearing some rumblings of Dan Mullen moving on to the backup QB – but I am 0% worried. If you want to throw some young kid out there for his first collegiate start against Alabama by all means have at it. I will bet against you.
I expect another lopsided Alabama victory here and I expect Florida to use 2 quarterbacks for a combined 200 yards passing and 3-4 turnovers. I also expect Bama to treat this game as an SEC tune-up and work in a little bit of practice with their 2nd stringers. Be on the lookout for a missed 4th quarter Alabama scoring opportunity followed by Nick Saban blowing off some steam and scaring his backups into running up the score.
USC @ Washington +8.5 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
Nick Rolovich is my guy. If you don’t think he looks like a fat 40 year old Travy then “well there is no pleasing you.”
Give me the 8.5 points with the Fat Travs at home against a reeling USC team with an interim head coach.
Auburn @ Penn State -6 (-120) // RISK 2.4 to WIN 2.0
Auburn @ Penn State MONEYLINE (-230) // RISK 2.3 to WIN 1.0
My take on this game is very simple. Two pretty good defenses. Two stagnant offenses that could explode for 45 points at a moments notice (but probably won’t). This comes down to which jackass quarterback makes the back-breaking mistake to cause a 7-point swing and cost his team the game, and more importantly the cover.
At the end of the day I lean with Bo Nix to make that big mistake. Clifford having the home field/crowd advantage should work in the Lions favor. That being said, I would bet the house that he turns the ball over this week.
Virginia @ UNC OVER 64.5 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
I have watched a combined zero seconds of both of these teams, but I heard through the grapevine that Virginia’s offense is unexpectedly explosive. And we all know what Sam Howell can do. I am rooting for this one to turn into a Saturday night shootout.
Arizona State -3 @ BYU (-130) // RISK 1.3 to WIN 1.0
Arizona State MONEYLINE @ BYU (-180) // RISK 1.8 to WIN 1.0
I know this is on BYU’s home turf, but are you seriously going to let me snag Herm Edwards by a field goal for -130 odds???
And even better yet – I can have the Moneyline for -180. Covering should be no problem but we all know that Herm plays to win first and foremost.
And as much as I love siding with Herm, I think I’m addicted to betting on ASU because I watched Jayden Daniels outplay Justin Herbert in 2019. I freaking love this guy.
Fresno State @ UCLA -11.5 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
Take everything I just said about Herm and Daniels and lets echo it here for Chip Kelly and DTR.
San Jose State @ Hawaii OVER 59.5 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
I think I am just going to take Hawaii Overs until they lose. After watching Hawaii’s defense versus Oregon State, anything with a 5 in front of it has a 90% chance of cashing.
PARLAY #1 (-110) // RISK 2.2 to WIN 2.0
*This would be a good time to warn you that for all of the joking I do about blowing money on parlays and not knowing what to do with myself up 20+ units – I am actually turning up the heat this week and firing 6 parlays. I am well aware that I am going to make or break myself, but I have no choice but to refer to the Rules of Sports Gambling by Snaker’s Dozen. #ScaredMoneyDontMakeMoney*
I am addicted to losing these stupid teasers so let’s throw a couple units on Bama by 10 and UCLA by a TD. I love both of these teams to cover but I LOVE LOVE them to cover with 6 additional freebies.
PARLAY #2 (+231) // RISK 1.3 to WIN 3.0
Same game parlays are always a good idea. What could go wrong? I didn’t even want to do this but both of these bets seem too good to be true.
I stand with Sean Clifford and his shooting sleeve.
PARLAY #3 (+273) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 3.0
Again – the same game parlay is just a brilliant idea. ROLL TIDE.
PARLAY #4 (+400) // RISK 1.5 to WIN 4.0
I’ve looked this up and down 7 times and I can’t decide which of those teams could possibly blow this parlay.
Positive energy only on Parlay #4.
PARLAY #5 (+1100) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 11.0
A little underdog parlay.
I like every single one of these dogs enough that I’d be tempted to hammer some moneyline sprinkles on top. And speaking of which…
LONGSHOT CHEAT CARROLL ‘WHY NOT US’ PARLAY (+10000) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 100.0
HELL YEAH CHEAT. The same four teams but give me the outright moneylines on these dogs!
Lets see them doggies!!
That’s it, folks. Week 3 should be quite exciting and quite profitable.