Me to myself at the conclusion of the Georgia-Alabama game:
After a DISASTROUS first down play Week 13, my only chance at salvaging the season was left in the hands of Championship Week 14. I basically put it all on red (and black) and it backfired on me.
SON OF A BITCH.
CFB WEEK 14 RECAP
PARLAY #1 (+500) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 5.0
PARLAY #2 (+800) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 8.0
LONGSHOT CHEAT CARROLL ‘WHY NOT US’ PARLAY (+11800) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 118.0
There you have it. 12 Units. I lost 12 Units the very next week after losing 16 units.
A 4-7 record on regular picks including an 0 for 3 MINUS 8.7 unit performance on the Georgia-Alabama game. This brings my season net all the way down to -27 Units which I believe is the lowest moment in the storied 2-year history of the Snaker’s Dozen.
(Positive spin zone: how about the Cheat Carroll Parlay going 6 for 8 
)
My thoughts on the games in no particular thought-out order:
Imagine being so goddam stupid that you watch a football game played between Team A and Team B where Team B wins by 50 points, then both teams come back out on the field for an immediate rematch and you pick Team A to win.
That’s pretty much what I did. I watched Utah smoke Oregon a couple weeks ago then I sat there and took the Oregon +3 bait like a fish to a hook.
You want to know the craziest part? If they ran this game back for a third time and someone offered me Oregon ML at even odds I’d be losing more money on them. I’m sorry, I just refuse to believe that Utah is a better team than Oregon even after watching it twice.
A rare W on the week for me.
As much as I wanted to see the mullet reach the College Football Playoff – I could never truly visualize that dude with a #4 next to his ugly mug. Didn’t feel strong about it, but I was leaning Baylor and they pulled off the upset in thrilling fashion.
BAYLOR STOPS OKLAHOMA STATE ON 4TH DOWN 😱 pic.twitter.com/9JlKW4ZLrv
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) December 4, 2021
Cincinnati completing the 13-0 season and stealing a spot in the playoff solidifies my hate in that team for the next 5-10 years. They are now my new UCF.
Personally I was delighted to see them catch a #1 seed Alabama so we can end this stupidity once and for all. I will be taking every Alabama alt line I can get: -20.5, -27.5, -34.5, etc.
Absolutely insane that somebody decided Louisiana was an underdog in this game. This was a no-doubter from start to finish and it was the only EZ $ of the day.
"Scared money don't make money."
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) September 17, 2021
Billy Napier is a national treasurepic.twitter.com/LkTb1QcQwd
I don’t know what you want me to say. The one outcome that I was 100% POSITIVELY SURE would not transpire somehow transpired. Georgia who had given up about 41 points all season long gives up 41 points to Alabama and hands Bryce Young the Heisman trophy in the process. (OK I admit he kind of earned it after that.)
Being that I was wrong about Alabama “not being able to score enough” on this Dawgs D – it cost me all three of my big plays and ultimately put my entire weekend on full tilt. Good thing I wasn’t repeatedly live betting Georgia during the 3rd quarter (I was).
But have no fear, the Dawgs will see the Tide again and redemption is a dish best served cold.
Let’s cut to the chase with this one – nobody really gives a shit.
Great win for Pitt, that’s a pretty remarkable achievement to win the ACC but everyone seems to have acknowledged that this is a down year for that conference and it feels like Pitt is the most irrelevant P5 Champ since the installation of the Playoff. It’s also awesome that they gave up 21 points in the first quarter but then managed to shut down Wake entirely for the next 3.
Nobody gives a shit X 2. Iowa must be the longest standing fraud in the history of frauds. The Big Ten needs to do some rebalancing because it’s a waste of everyone’s time to watch a Top 5 team from the Big Ten East take on Iowa or Northwestern year after year.
Maybe I’m looking at this game the wrong way. It’s actually a nice little scrimmage spot so a team like Michigan can dick around and discover they have a real life Boobie Miles at tailback.
This ball traveled in the air from the Michigan 19 to the Iowa 35 yard line. Unbelievable pass from a running back pic.twitter.com/SbP6g2ZQpH
— Up Bad Bean (@MJoeBean) December 5, 2021
I gotta try and salvage some shit this weekend and avoid breaking the bank. I really want to put myself in position to go on an absolute Bowl Game tear and maybe rip off a parlay to mitigate the damage. But I gotta use some discipline.
I’m putting the rules below…but keep in mind that I’m going to blatantly and intentionally disregard those stupid ass rules that got me into this mess. As much as I’d love to bet on Montana vs JMU and Montana State vs Sam Houston, I think I’ll stick with Army-Navy.
The Rules of Sports Gambling by Snaker’s Dozen:
Rule #1 – You are due.
Rule #2 – See Rule #1.
Rule #3 – When it starts to hurt, turn up the dial. More units. Also, see Rule #1.
CFB WEEK 15 WINNERS
Army -6.5 @ Navy (-130) // RISK 2.6 to WIN 2.0
Army @ Navy UNDER 36 (-110) // RISK 3.3 to WIN 3.0
I can’t believe it’s already that time of year.
United We Stand 🇺🇸
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) November 29, 2021
🔗https://t.co/EkKuPbML76#GoArmy pic.twitter.com/pH5h0Q8pAS
𝐅𝐥𝐲 𝐍𝐚𝐯𝐲.
— Navy Athletics (@NavyAthletics) November 30, 2021
Taking to the skies on December 11.
🔗https://t.co/3b6lN0XsaJ#FlyNavy | #BeatArmy pic.twitter.com/4UFpmgZ4ZP
Contrary to the opinions of my two drunken idiot brothers arguing with me last weekend, this is the only FBS contest between now and the first bowl game which takes place on Friday December 17th.
So by all means soak up every minute of this thing and enjoy the triple option in all its glory.
Now, as for the picks.
Let’s start with the total. Is everyone in the world aware of the trend with service academy totals at this point?
Earlier this season both the Navy-Air Force and Army-Air Force games went Under to add to the incredible run dating back to 2005. That trend is now 40-9-1 in it’s last 50.
These are two 4-minute offenses designed to drag you down into the mud and keep their opponent within striking distance for 60 minutes straight. Possessions will be limited. There will be one or two explosive plays and one or two passes for that matter. I’m not even sure they need a clock operator for this one. They probably just set a 15 minute timer on the concession stand microwave and the cashier screams down at the refs when the beeper goes off.
Furthermore, the Under has hit the last 15 times in a row these two teams have met. AND EVEN FURTHER – this SOB ended with a 15-0 score last year when Army defeated Navy. Believe it or not the game was 3-0 heading into the 4th quarter.
I don’t care if this total was 9.5, I’m taking my chances with the 80% hit rate.
UNDER
And now for the spread.
Though they haven’t been favored often in recent history, Army has won 15 of the last 16 games when they are the favorite. So they ARE GOING TO WIN. That’s clear. No need for the ‘wrong team is favored’ sirens with this one.
So this really comes down to whether you have the stones to stare that 7.5 point spread in the face and dare to lay the points. In my brain it feels like this game is always close. And after performing a quick wiki fact check on myself – I deduced that my brain is incorrect.
Upon further review this game is typically not close unless Army wins. Dating back to 1990, Army would have only covered a -7.5 point spread in 1990, 2001, and 2020. That would seem quite alarming at first glance, but you may be forgetting one important thing…
Navy sucks.
That’s it. That’s the piece of info that ultimately shifts the balance and forces me to play Army. (I’ll just do myself a favor and buy a point because I’m a coward and terrified that Army will win by 7.)
Ever since Navy got their ass beat by BYU 55-3 in September of 2020 it feels like they never got their mojo back. Navy is now 6-15 dating back to last year while Army is 17-6. Navy’s offense is ranked 127th in yards per play this season while Army’s is ranked 66th.
I will not be shocked if Navy puts up a scoring total between 0 and 7 and Army manages to score 3 touchdowns.
GO ARMY. BEAT NAVY. WIN THE SNAKER’S DOZEN 5 UNITS.
