BY GOD THAT’S THE SNAKER’S DOZEN IN WEEK 12’S MUSIC !
I know I said it was dead last week, but I failed to mention that a +5.6 unit week would instantaneously revive the Snaker’s Dozen with a furious rage.
Holy shit I’m back.
CFB WEEK 12 RECAP
PARLAY #1 (-105) // RISK 1.05 to WIN 1.0
PARLAY #2 (+200) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 2.0
PARLAY #3 (+145) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 1.45
LONGSHOT CHEAT CARROLL ‘WHY NOT US’ PARLAY (+5950) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 59.5
Oh my god am I clutch or am I clutch?
A 14-7 straight-up record (and 0-4 on parlays) bounceback week to right the ship and just like that we are officially treading water again at +0.35 units on the year. Breaking even never felt so good.
Let’s look back at my brilliance last week.
My thoughts on the games in no particular thought-out order:
I should really stop investing so much into the MAC.
I took all these MAC overs and I needed a miracle to salvage a unit in the Toledo game. (Literally a miracle – Ohio hit an onside kick and then some dude made an acrobatic catch in the corner of the endzone to seal the deal in garbage time).
Ridiculous 14 yard TD catch by Chase Cokley! #Ohio pic.twitter.com/wrqM4t3X5k
— ✯✯✯✯✯ (@FTBVids_YT) November 17, 2021
Absolute home-cookin by the zebras but my Falcons prevailed in triple OT.
Unrelated, but sort of related – is this fake option scamper the coolest / simplest play ever?
FALCONS GET IT DONE pic.twitter.com/P1GjmLIAw6
— Air Force Football (@AF_Football) November 20, 2021
One of the strangest Penn State games I’ve ever watched in my life and not once did I have to sweat the Under. Apparently half of PSU’s squad had a virus that made the starting lineup a last-minute decision, literally.
Oddly enough, my biggest threat to the Under was Sean Clifford being replaced with a true freshman QB from Canada who came in and played with the composure of Tom Brady. I’ll never wrap my head around the 2021 Nittany Lions team.
I’m not sure if I’ve ever been more wrong about a game in my life. That box score speaks for itself.
I said Oregon +3 was a disrespectful line. Turns out it was disrespectful…to Utah.
The fact that Ohio State scored 56 points and I didn’t cash an Over 68.5 seems more like a Michigan State problem than a Snaker’s Dozen problem. Let’s be honest – Mel Tucker should Venmo me.
(Good thing I snagged the OSU Team Total Over 44.5 to break even).
Turns out my SMU ML sprinkle was idiotic.
I’m so sick and tired of the Cincinnati bullshit let’s just do this. I want #4 Cincinnati vs. #1 Georgia and I want the Cincinnati Team Total Under of 0.5 please.
My first ever ‘lock of the week’ has missed and therefore I will be terminating ‘lock of the week’ forever. I retire with a career record of 0-1.
And no, I did not expect Michigan to single handedly reach the points total.
The best gambling wins are the the ones where you don’t check the score until the game has already been decided. Quite literally never a doubt on Clemson ML.
Am I still confused on why Baylor was a pick’em with Kansas State? Yes.
Will that stop me from buying a couple free six packs with my winnings? No.
Every week I feel the need to point out that Matt Campbell is the most overrated coach on earth because I seem to be the only person to realize that.
It’s kind of like voting for the 3rd party person on my presidential ballot. I guess nobody gives a shit, but all I can do is keep beating the drum.
Scott Frost lost a close one to a ranked team? That’s weird.
Texas fails to cover and the loss puts them at 2-6 in conference play. But instead of treating them like Illinois or Rutgers let’s keep handicapping them as if they are Penn State or Michigan.
Tom Allen is probably still sobbing in the locker room. Easy cover for the Gophers.
Did not have action on this one but having Eli Drinkwitz clown on you and then getting fired must feel worse than a post 4th of July Monday back at the office hangover.
MIC DROP from #Mizzou football coach Eli Drinkwitz after beating Florida in OT! 😂
— Andrew Kauffman (@AndrewABC17) November 21, 2021
"May the force be with you." pic.twitter.com/cVw9CcvXK0
I’m stunned that UConn couldn’t handle the 30.5 point spread in a rivalry game that they invented a trophy for. They must not have any pride, Danny.
At least some good tweets came out of it and the trophy was returned to it’s rightful owner (no one).
Was this made at the same place that did your National Championship trophy? https://t.co/QPGH5iML8q
— UConn Football (@UConnFootball) November 20, 2021
— UCF Football (@UCF_Football) November 21, 2021
I wanted a shootout to cash the Over and that’s exactly what I got. Just your casual 95 point PAC-12 game.
Does the Hawaii Over and ML sprinkle ever fail??
It wasn’t until Monday morning that I realized this game was the final Hawaii late nighter of the regular season. And the worst part – I couldn’t find a stream so I didn’t stay up to watch it.
😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭
I feel incredibly rejuvenated. Let’s peep the Rules and let’s fire off the inspirational video. I’m ready to pick more winners.
The Rules of Sports Gambling by Snaker’s Dozen:
Rule #1 – You are due.
Rule #2 – See Rule #1.
Rule #3 – When it starts to hurt, turn up the dial. More units. Also, see Rule #1.
Had to dip back into the old well to pull out the Matthew Driscoll video. If that doesn’t get your juices flowing for Week 13 then nothing will.
CFB WEEK 13 WINNERS
Ole Miss @ Miss State OVER 61 (-110) // RISK 2.2 to WIN 2.0
Ole Miss @ Miss State MONEYLINE (-115) // RISK 1.15 to WIN 1.0
Ah the Egg Bowl, a Thanksgiving tradition.
While I understand that the NFL games usually steal this games thunder, you’d be insane not to have this on a second screen at a bare minimum.
Lane Kiffin vs Mike Leach is must-see TV and this game has included some historic moments in recent years:
Do yourself a favor and make sure you have some action on this. Personally I think Kiffin will break his cold streak of Unders by putting up some points but Leach will ultimately prevail at home.
Kansas State +3 @ Texas (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
🚨 THE WRONG TEAM IS FAVORED ALERT 🚨
Why is Texas a favorite in a conference game? They just failed to cover as an underdog against WVU and now they are favored against an equivalent opponent 7 days later.
I’m confused. I’ll take the free dough.
Iowa -1.5 @ Nebraska (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
Did you really think I was going to pass up a chance to bet against Scott Frost vs. a ranked opponent? Let me take a wild ass guess here – I’ll say Nebraska is about to lose a hard fought close game to Iowa.
(PS – I guess the rest of the world also didn’t want to pass that up because this line apparently opened at Nebraska -4.5.)
UNLV @ Air Force UNDER 49.5 (-120) // RISK 1.2 to WIN 1.0
Being that I have recently become an Air Force fan I am obligated to bet this game. However, them laying nearly 3 TDs feels like way too much. I’m taking the Under because Air Force will probably throw the ball 3 times and hold onto it for 45 of the 60 minutes.
UNC +6.5 @ NC State (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
UNC MONEYLINE @ NC State (+210) // RISK 0.5 to WIN 1.05
UNC @ NC State OVER 63 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
I hesitate to trigger a ‘wrong team is favored alert’, but I was surprised to see the -6.5 next to NC State’s name.
UNC has been extremely disappointing and NC State needs this game to keep their conference championship hopes alive. That being said, it’s Sam Howell’s last regular season game of his collegiate career and Vegas is spotting me a touchdown if I pick his side.
You already know what to do. Take the points. Take the Moneyline. And take the Over.
Washington State -1 @ Washington (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
The Wazzu Fat Travs have basically been a stayaway for me ever since they fired Fat Trav.
That being said, I can’t pass up a pick’em with the dumpster fire that is Washington. Let’s win this one for ROLO!
Ohio State -8 @ Michigan (-115) // RISK 1.15 to WIN 1.0
Ohio State @ Michigan OVER 65 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
Everything in my bones is whispering to me “take the points, take the points, take the points.” Meanwhile my brain is screaming at me “DON’T FORGET THAT MENTAL NOTE YOU’VE MADE FOR THE LAST 10 YEARS ABOUT ALWAYS TAKING OHIO STATE IN THIS GAME.”
It seems like if there was ever a year for Michigan to keep this one close, this would be it. But I can’t just ignore the history of this game dating back to Michigan’s last win in 2011.
I’d be a damn fool to bet against Ohio State now that’ve hit their stride on offense. Even if they somehow lose, I can’t see them scoring less than 35 so I can simply take the Over as an insurance policy. This is basically risk-free gambling and odds are that both of these will hit.
Wake Forest @ Boston College OVER 64 (-115) // RISK 1.15 to WIN 1.0
This game feels like 80-90 points. I would go as far as to say there is a better chance the Over hits in the first half than the chance that the Over doesn’t hit at all. Should be bombs galore.
Penn State MONEYLINE @ Michigan State (-110) // RISK 3.3 to WIN 3.0
Penn State @ Michigan State UNDER 51.5 (-110) // RISK 2.2 to WIN 2.0
Oh would you look at that, it’s ole’ reliable aka me putting all of my eggs in one basket aka having 5.5 units on a Penn State game.
Judging by the Michigan State injury report – their season ended last week with a 50 point beatdown in Columbus. It seems quite possible that the Spartans will be missing their star RB, a handful of receivers, two OLmen, and several starters on defense.
I don’t care what Mel Tucker has to say, anyone with a brain knows this game is icing on the cake to a successful season for MSU. I believe their win total was 4. And I think they will end up with 9 after losing this one.
As far as the game total – Penn State’s D is on fire and I already pointed out MSU’s offensive woes. Plus it was just announced that Sean Clifford would start this game. This thing should be in the 21-17 range at most.
Alabama @ Auburn +19.5 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
I’m telling you right now – it’s not going to make any sense, but Auburn will keep this thing close even with their backup QB.
As soon as the Iron Bowl kicks off you can take the spread and total and whatever other ideas about how you thought this game would go and light it on fire.
This series feels a little bit PSU-OSU to me. Ohio State is always far superior, but for whatever reason Penn State willl take them down to the finish line. And I think that’s exactly what we will get from Auburn in this one.
Oregon State +7 @ Oregon (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
If this game came down to Jimmy’s and Joe’s then Oregon could sleepwalk to a 2-score win.
I’m banking on the fact that there’s other factors at play here. Oregon is coming off an absolute asskicking (that cost my dumbass some serious dough) and just got it’s season turned on its head. It can still win the PAC-12, but given the circumstances it’s hard to imagine the Oregon players give a shit.
Meanwhile Oregon State somehow, someway is still alive in the Pac-12 North and would go to the championship with a win + a Wazzu loss.
The phrase “this is their super bowl” totally applies in this scenario. Give me the Beavs. Beavs up.
Indiana @ Purdue UNDER 50.5 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
If this game was at 11am local time it would be my favorite play of the day. I still like it at 2:30. Also – Indiana sucks.
Wisconsin -7 @ Minnesota (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
Wisconsin is ROLLING right now (7 straight Ws) and I wouldn’t want to be the team of Gophers led by a Hot Tub Machine actor as its coach to step in their way.
Don’t be surprised if this score is 24-0 at halftime.
Texas A&M -6.5 @ LSU (-115) // RISK 1.15 to WIN 1.0
The reason you’re getting this line at a TD is because it has the potential to be Coach O’s last game with LSU (would be bowl eligible with a win) and Vegas suspects that his players will play some inspired football for him.
Newsflash – these players don’t give a flying you-know-what about Ed Orgeron and his 7 girlfriends that he prioritized over his job. They are DEAD LAST in the SEC West. I promise you they don’t give a shit. Half of the good ones have already opted out “with injuries.” Nobody on that dysfunctional team wants to suffer through a shitty bowl game.
Coach O’s legacy at LSU will be capped off with an asskicking at home courtesy of Jimbo Fisher (who might take Coach O’s job in a month’s time).
PARLAY #1 (-125) // RISK 1.25 to WIN 1.0
The only thing dumber than losing a MACtion parlay is losing a MACtion teaser. I’m not a gambling expert (obviously), but given the huge potential margin of error on setting these MAC lines, I’d say this is just about the dumbest thing you can do.
PARLAY #2 (+525) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 5.25
I’m calling this one ‘THE BIG GAME PARLAY.”
These are basically the 3 meaningful games of the weekend (or 2 games plus the Egg Bowl) and I want action on all of them.
You know the favorites won’t sweep, so I’m most willing to put my money on Oklahoma to pull off the upset. That would seem like a very Big 12 type of thing to happen. This new power in OKST finally emerges and then just when people start turning their heads they get smacked back into reality by the team that has seemingly won the conference for the last 100 years in a row.
And for as much as I’d like to root for the mullet, my brain is having a tough time visualizing Oklahoma State in the College Football Playoff.
LONGSHOT CHEAT CARROLL ‘WHY NOT US’ PARLAY (+6600) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 66.0
I must be about 0-20 in my career on Cheat Carroll Parlays. You know what that means? I’M DUE.
Let’s have a week.
