COLLEGE FOOTBALL WE ARE OFFICIALLY BACK.
WE’RE BACK AND WE NEVER LEFT.
Goddammit it feels good to fire up another one of these blogs with a full season ahead of us. It seems like just yesterday when half of the conference commissioners got into a virtue signaling contest and raced to cancel their seasons. Just kidding, that feels like it was 7 years ago.
And sidenote – B1G commissioner Kevin Warren still having a job makes me want to vomit. I’m going to continue to rehash that subject until everyone cares as much as I do and the man is working at his local Home Depot.
Big Ten commish Kevin Warren: “As time progressed … it became abundantly clear there was too much uncertainty regarding potential medical risks to allow our student-athletes to compete this fall."
— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) August 11, 2020
Ok that’s enough negativity. Let’s focus on the road ahead and let bygones be bygones. Good vibes only from here on out. Remember – WE ARE BACK.
[Under normal circumstances this is the place where I could discuss last year’s Snaker’s Dozen picks and do a recap on the events that led to me being down -31.0 units on the year. But thankfully I just said we are going to focus on the positives. So no need to digress on the tragedy of last years picks.]
This year’s strategy will be simple. Very simple.
The Rules of Sports Gambling by Snaker’s Dozen:
Rule #1 – You are due.
Rule #2 – See Rule #1.
Rule #3 – When it starts to hurt, turn up the dial. More units. Also, see Rule #1.
For the 2021 College Football Season I will be kicking things off with a bang during Week 0. That’s right – Week ZERO.
I don’t know who the bigshot is over at ESPN that decided to stop recognizing the first weekend of CFB as “Week 0,” but I wholeheartedly disagree with that man. So for the sake of all things fun, I will be focusing on the following games for this first zeroeth week:
An all day Saturday slate that features Fresno State beating the living piss out of UConn and a team named “Southern Utah” playing well into the morning hours of Sunday. Tickets for that one will run you a little more than a crisp Alexander Hamilton.
Hell yes.
If Week 0 doesn’t get your jollies going then as my good buddy TravMan likes to say…”You should see your Primary Care Physician ASAP.”
That’s enough introductory BS.
Let’s get to the picks. Let’s get to the winners. I NEVER say what I am about to say…but…….let’s go.
🏈 CFB WEEK 0 WINNERS 🏈
Nebraska @ Illinois +7.5 (-125) // RISK 2.5 to WIN 2.0
Nebraska @ Illinois MONEYLINE (+215) // RISK 0.93 to WIN 2.0
Nebraska @ Illinois UNDER 55.0 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
Stop me if I’ve said this before but I’M CONFUSED. What am I missing here?
If you told me Illinois was favored by a TD I would be less surprised than I am to see Nebraska is favored by a TD. I guess dogshit Nebraska is still riding that 1970s hype and tricking people into thinking them and Scott Frost have something cooking here. In reality, the only thing they have cooking is NCAA violations and a mid-season firing of Frost when they are staring at 2-6.
Nebraska & Coach Scott Frost under NCAA investigation for improper use of analysts, sources told @ActionNetworkHQ. Also, during pandemic, NU held unauthorized off-campus workouts under staff’s direction to avoid detection by school officials, sources said https://t.co/I8FGe1RAvo
— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) August 18, 2021
Oh and shitty quarterback play. They also have that cooking.
Illinois at home on a sleepy Saturday is going to be so fired up to kick this ball off the tee @ 12pm local time as opposed to 12pm est. The Fighting Illini will come out hot behind some large, white, veteran, 8th-year QB who will make smart decisions while also making zero explosive plays.
I think they keep this very close and may even steal the win. I don’t know how many points this Illinois offense can score, but I know Nebraska isn’t putting up 30. So that Under is easy money, too.
UConn @ Fresno State OVER 62.5 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
As much as I wanted to hit UConn getting 27.5 points I couldn’t allow myself to do that. I can practically see them driving down the field during garbage time trailing by 35 and watching the time expire as they throw an errant pass into the endzone.
Truth be told I have no idea what these teams are going to look like, but I know that Fresno State THINKS they are good and they are probably in a flex spot here. I could see them putting up 6-7 TDs easily.
UConn is obviously the wild card. But I have to imagine that after sitting around for 2 years getting ready for this game that they will have something dialed up on offense. Maybe even some trick plays and shit.
Hawaii @ UCLA OVER 69.0 (-105) // RISK 1.05 to WIN 1.0
Anybody that’s followed the Snaker’s Dozen knows damn well that I love the late night product that Hawaii puts out on a weekly basis. This one being a mid-day game has my brain in a weird spot.
UCLA favored by 17 seems a bit ridiculous, but the total being anything less than 70 is straight up insulting. So the Over is the safe play here.
The Cordeiro guy from Hawaii is ready to follow in Cole McDonald’s footsteps and wreak absolute havoc on opposing secondaries. And don’t sleep on this UCLA quarterback (who we are just going to refer to as DTR). Despite the limited PAC-12 games last year the guy was lighting it up. DTR is basically a modern day RGIII that has two functioning legs.
UTEP -8 @ New Mexico State (-130) // RISK 1.95 to WIN 1.5
No effing clue, but I’m pretty sure somebody told me the boys at UTEP are supposed to have a big year.
Some quick numbers out of the research department tell me that UTEP is ranked 55th on offense and 112th on defense in terms of returning production. That’s not exactly inspiring.
The good news is that UTEP returns a starter at QB and NMSU is indicating that they may try to mix in a freshman QB for a few series. Given that the ‘mix in the freshman QB’ strategy is approximately 3 for 5000 in terms of success, I’ll take my chances with the Miners.
PARLAY #1 // RISK 2.2 to WIN 2.0
Is there any better way to kick off the season than with a 10 point teaser?? Answer: No.
There’s something about teasing a few games up by 10 that makes you think the spreads are impossible to lose. Illinois has 17 points to wiggle with!? What are we even doing here…
(I’m genuinely interested in what size Bielema is running with that jacket/pants combo. Over/Under 3.5XL?)
After looking at those massive spreads, I had enough confidence here that I got greedy and decided to chase after not 1, but 2 units. Somebody please drive over to my house and beat me with a baseball bat if UConn loses by 40.
PARLAY #2 // RISK 0.6 to WIN 2.2
UTEP moneyline is a gimme. We all know that.
I already told you Nebraska is shitty.
So this comes down to can Hawaii cover 17? Truth be told, I don’t know. But if you are giving me +366 odds on them doing that then I’ll take it, thanks.
LONGSHOT CHEAT CARROLL ‘WHY NOT US’ PARLAY // RISK 0.5 to WIN 11.0
Ah yes, the old Cheat Carroll Parlay. You better believe I didn’t forget about this puppy.
I love these longshots so much because they inject you with optimism, but realistically all this does is put me in the hole by a half-unit before the first game kicks off. A 22:1 shot that relies on upsets from Illinois and New Mexico State? Yeah, that’ll pay.
It’s good to be back ladies and gentlemen. Enjoy the beauty that is Week 0 and god be with you if you are risking money on college kids playing football for the first time in 8 months.
Break out the 9% beers and chicken wings! THE SNAKER’S DOZEN IS BACK!