BREAKING: THE SNAKER’S DOZEN IS BACK ON TRACK
We’re (a little bit) back on the rails boys and girls. After a dreadful Thursday/Friday start, I rallied HARD on Saturday and salvaged a pretty decent week.
After 4 weeks of ill-advised gambling, that puts us at 3 profitable weeks for the good guys and 1 profitable week for the offshore bad guys.
I can’t decide whether to write 10,000 words on how incompetent my state government is at trying to legalize sports gambling, or if I’d rather just discuss last week’s games.
Ok I’ve decided I’d rather discuss last weeks games.
🏈 CFB WEEK 4 RECAP 🏈
PARLAY #1 (+110) // RISK 2 to WIN 2.2
PARLAY #2 (+950) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 9.5
LONGSHOT CHEAT CARROLL ‘WHY NOT US’ PARLAY (+9200) // RISK 0.5 to WIN 46.0
I will take a +3.4 unit week ALL…DAY…LAHONG.
My thoughts on the games in no particular thought-out order:
Hugh Freeze you double crossing son of a bitch. How many times are you going to do this to me. Losing 2.2 big ones on the 6 point favorite and blowing up the Cheat Carroll parlay didn’t exactly get my jollies going on Friday night.
The dawgs are ROLLING.
They cover the cover the spread by nearly 30 points and Vanderbilt doesn’t even sniff their Team Total of 7.5.
I’m not sure what the hell is going on down there in Fayetteville with Sam Pittman, but the Razorbacks are RED HOT. The moneyline sprinkle comes through.
I watched zero seconds of this game, but OSU covering a 49 point spread is absolutely hilarious.
If there was any question whether Akron has any personal pride, the answer is a big fat NO.
Speaking of personal pride, Hey Wisconsin, what in the hell is going on? You just gave up 41 points to Notre Dame and a backup QB? I’m mildly concerned about your football team and severely concerned about you ruining my 2-unit sweetheart teaser.
Also – who could have seen this Graham Mertz reality check this season? (Everyone. Literally everyone could see this coming.)
Another moneyline winner. Wasn’t Iowa State’s win total like 11.5? Looks like that’s blown after 4 games. Every night before bed I say a prayer that Penn State doesn’t end up with Matt Campbell as their head coach.
Matt Campbell, super mad. pic.twitter.com/44Dji1MUSA
— Ryan Glasspiegel (@sportsrapport) December 19, 2020
My biggest play of the week, MSU by a TD, crashes and burns with all 3 units.
But hey, things could be worse. I could be Scott Frost staring down a resignation in 3 weeks time.
Somewhere along the way I convinced myself that Mizzou and Arkansas are basically the same team and they are both sneaky good. I guess I’ll be re-thinking that strategy after seeing Arkansas lose to an injury-ridden, irrelevant BC team.
More importantly, who in the hell is Dennis Grosel and how is he beating an SEC team?
Potentially the two most captivating, but terrible teams in the FBS right now – Ohio and UConn – both fall to below average teams.
Credit to UConn for obtaining a 13-3 lead heading into the half. Credit to Ohio for holding Northwestern to a scoreless 3rd quarter. Credit to me for continuing to bet against these guys. NW = EASY MONEY.
Imagine the poor bastard fans of these two teams that actually endured 60 minutes of this football game. The under hits by 30+ points.
This game ultimately made all the of the difference for me in Week 4. FSU, FSU ML, and the Under all hit.
FSU is the gift that keeps on giving. When in doubt – stick with your bread and butter and bet against FSU.
I had no idea that Mr. vertical eyeblack was injured this week and it worked to my advantage. Poor Kedon Slovis has all but lost his job to a Laguna Beach looking bro named Jaxson who probably just got off his skateboard yesterday.
One last note: It’s becoming a weekly tradition to take a second look at the Cheat Carroll Parlay and bask in the almost glory of hitting one of these. Damn you Hugh Freeze and damn you Scott Frost.
The good news is that after last week’s performance I feel like I am playing with house money again. Let’s turn up the dial and hit a parlay one time.
The Rules of Sports Gambling by Snaker’s Dozen:
Rule #1 – You are due.
Rule #2 – See Rule #1.
Rule #3 – When it starts to hurt, turn up the dial. More units. Also, see Rule #1.
I love that ^ Buffer-Dillashaw gif so much that I’m reusing it this week. F it, let me throw in the YouTube video for good measure. Lets have a damn week.
🏈 CFB WEEK 5 WINNERS 🏈
Virginia +4 @ Miami (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
Virginia MONEYLINE @ Miami (+166) // RISK 0.6 to WIN 1.0
Full disclosure I don’t have any special insight on this game. But I’m sticking with my principle play and betting against Miami. It hasn’t failed me yet (And I mean that literally. Betting against Miami has not failed me this season).
Iowa -4 @ Maryland (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
All-time RAT line. Give me the cheese.
I swear to god if Tua’s brother burns me here I’m going to retire from betting on Maryland.
Arkansas TEAM UNDER 14.5 @ Georgia (-120) // RISK 1.2 to WIN 1.0
Either I am out of my mind or the handicapper that decided Arkansas would score more than 2 TDs is out of his mind. That remains to be seen, but we will find out Saturday at noon.
I can’t fathom a world where this Georgia defense, which is surrendering less than 6 points a game, has a tough time with Arkansas. I also like Georgia to win, but 18 points is a bit much considering I think this game turns into a typical Georgia style boa constrictor beatdown. I’m thinking Dawgs by a score of 24-10 or something along those lines.
Michigan @ Wisconsin TEAM UNDER 21.5 (-115) // RISK 1.15 to WIN 1.0
This game feels like a must-bet for all B1G fans. I don’t feel crazy confident in either side, but I’m pretty damn sure that Graham Mertz is terrible. I like Wisconsin to score less than 3 TDs and for the record I would lean Michigan ML (I can’t believe I am saying that).
Coming soon... pic.twitter.com/XDhapgrRrr
— Graham Mertz (@GrahamMertz5) June 28, 2021
Never forget the asskicking that Graham Mertz dished out to an Illinois JV team on a Friday night in 2020. But please do forget the 9 games since then that he has been awful in.
TCU +5 @ Texas (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
TCU MONEYLINE @ Texas (+170) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 1.7
I’m about to fill you in on a Snaker’s Dozen exclusive nugget. Back in the fall of 2019 I used my FanDuel free play on a sure-fire parlay that featured MLs of Penn State, LSU (I think it was LSU), and Texas (who was playing TCU and was a pick’em or similar). I couldn’t for the life of me figure out why a ranked Texas team wasn’t a big favorite in that spot.
As it turns out, Texas lost by double digits and the other legs of my parlay hit easily. After my feelings of stunning confusion had subsided, I went into the research lab and looked harder into this TCU-Texas rivalry.
Long story short, TCU pretty much wins this game outright every single year in recent history. Yet the oddsmakers keep favoring Texas (I assume solely because their name is Texas).
An in-state rival getting 5 points at home is dumb on its face. The fact that TCU has had Texas’ number the last 9 years is gravy. My iPhone calculator has the score over the last 9 years as TCU 266 – Texas 165.
Don’t make the mistake I did in 2019. Take TCU in this one.
Toledo (-26.5) @ UMass // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
I seriously can’t think of a better candidate of a team to run up the score on a struggling UMass than the future MAC champion Toledo Rockets. This is like putting an average 5th grade basketball player on the court against 2nd graders. He’s going to give it all he’s got to capitalize on this opportunity and prove to the world that he can compete (against inferior opponents).
Cincinnati @ Notre Dame MONEYLINE (+105) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 1.05
🚨 MUST-BET GAME ALERT 🚨
This is the coin flip of all coin flips, but if you are a college football fan it is mandatory that you pick a side in this one.
Personally, I am riding with Notre Dame from the standpoint of:
- Team A is a proven playoff contender over the last 5 years who regularly schedules games against relevant P5 teams. Team A is at home.
- Team B is a trendy up-and-comer that is supposedly a top 10 team but we don’t really know that because they play in this shitty conference called the AAC. Team B is on the road.
Yeah, give me Team A.
Ole Miss @ Alabama UNDER 79 (-105) // RISK 1.05 to WIN 1.0
Ole Miss +14.5 @ Alabama (-115) // RISK 1.15 to WIN 1.0
Frat bro total. If you give me the chance to fade a frat bro 80 burger I’m going to do it 99.99% of the time.
Given that I like the under, that also presents me with the opportunity to like Mississippi getting 14.5 big ones.
I’m well aware that this game featured 1000 points last year, but something tells me Alabama might be prepared for Ole Miss’ offense this year. I feel like they aren’t going to give up 50 points to Matt Corral again. Idk, call it a hunch. And therefore Alabama should be able to sit on the ball with a solid 2 score lead. Ole Miss may have a great backdoor opportunity here as well.
Also cue up every idiot that blindly says shit like “betting against Alabama is like throwing money away.” Just FYI since 2003 I’ve got Alabama covering the spread in 51.9% of their games. That’s not exactly remarkable.
Ohio @ Akron OVER 54.5 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
🚨 MUST-BET GAME ALERT 🚨
Another must bet! These two teams are so shitty that I’m dying to see what happens. An immovable object against and unstoppable force. Both teams REFUSE to win (with the exception of Akron’s win against the Bryant Bulldogs in Week 3).
I am taking the Over solely from the perspective of these are two teams who probably don’t give a shit at this point in the season. They’ll quit on their coaches, they’ll quit on each other. Ohio was committing all sorts of penalties after the whistle when I watched them play ULL. Again – I guarantee these kids don’t give a shit about their season right now.
And no matter how bad these offenses are, I think the 80 points and 900 yards the defenses are giving up on average will prevail. Take the over.
Syracuse +4.5 @ Florida State (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
Oh look, Vegas is blindly making Florida State a 4.5 point favorite in another pick’em type game!
Syracuse is giving up roughly half the points and half the yards that Florida State is giving up per game. Last week Syracuse beat Liberty while Florida State was busy getting demolished by Louisville.
Give me the Orangemen (that’s not racist because the mascot is literally a plump orange man).
Florida @ Kentucky TEAM UNDER 23.5 (-120) // RISK 1.2 to WIN 1.0
I want to root for Will The Thrill Levis, especially going up against the Gators, but I can’t lie to myself and pretend he is someone who he is not. I don’t see a world where Levis is putting up 24 points against a legitimate SEC contender. That would be bananas.
Liberty MONEYLINE @ UAB (+105) // RISK 2.0 to WIN 2.1
True Life: I am Addicted to Betting on Hugh Freeze.
Hugh, give me a thumbs up if you are ready to knock off UAB this Saturday!
Indiana @ Penn State -11 (-105) // RISK 3.15 to WIN 3.0
Indiana @ Penn State OVER 51.5 (-110) // RISK 2.2 to WIN 2.0
Penn State won this game last year and they will win it again this year. I hope Sean Clifford is throwing deep well into the 4th quarter sitting on a nice big fat lead. Penn State can handle the spread and total by themselves even if they hold Indiana to 0 points. I’m looking forward to watching Tom Allen cry again (like he does after every game win or lose).
Northwestern @ Nebraska +10.5 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
Northwestern MONEYLINE @ Nebraska (+315) // RISK 0.7 to WIN 2.2
You think a shitty Northwestern team on the road is going to stop me from betting against Scott Frost?
Washington @ Oregon State -2.5 (-120) // RISK 1.2 to WIN 1.0
Washington @ Oregon State MONEYLINE (-150) // RISK 1.5 to WIN 1.0
I am hearing all sorts of noise about “Washington has the offense clicking” and “Washington found their quarterback.” But neither of those things are enough to distract me from John Donovan calling Washington’s plays and Oregon State being RED HOT.
I think I threatened this last year as well, but if the Beavers come out of this game with a cover I will personally log onto Fanatics and buy myself some ridiculous Oregon State merchandise.
Arizona State @ UCLA OVER 55.5 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
Herm and Jayden Daniels squaring off with Chip and DTR. Does it get any better than this?
Fresno State @ Hawaii OVER 62 (-110) // RISK 2.2 to WIN 2.0
Hawaii Late Nite Overs. Enough said.
PARLAY #1 (+190) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 1.9
If you don’t think I’m going to relentlessly fire away at the Sweetheart parlay until I hit one then you’re insane.
Also shoutout to the GOAT of all porters, the Sweet Baby Jesus.
PARLAY #2 (+990) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 9.9
I don’t know what happened, but I got addicted to this type of bet. I never should have made fun of the $IX RACK 1:1 moneyline parlay. I’m going to go broke trying to nail these 10:1’s.
PARLAY #3 (+8140) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 81.4
If someone held a gun to my head and said “give me your top 7 plays this weekend” here is what I would have come up with. I’m not sure what scenario would ever warrant me being held at gunpoint being forced to rattle off a 7-teamer, but it is what it is.
PS – Believe it or not, this is NOT the Cheat Carroll Parlay.
LONGSHOT CHEAT CARROLL ‘WHY NOT US’ PARLAY (+2128000) // RISK 0.2 to WIN 4256.0
LOL.
I’m sure you don’t give a shit, but just in case you are wondering how I created this – I went down the board one-by-one and if I thought an underdog had a chance in hell of winning then I took them moneyline. It’s like a moneyline sprinkle on HGH and all sorts of other shit that is probably coursing through Jon Jones veins right now.
That’s all, folks. Have a blessed Week 5.