UPDATED LIVE LOOK AT ME VS. BOVADA:
Welp, this was overdue. I lose BIG TIME. Bovada wins BIG TIME. Let’s see what went wrong. Actually – I’ll just show you what went wrong…
I flew too close to the sun ladies and gentlemen. I was due to lose. I abided by the Snaker’s Dozen Gambling Rules and fired off 6 stupid parlays aka burned my wax wings off.
Now let’s take a look at the games.
🏈 CFB WEEK 3 RECAP 🏈
PARLAY #1 (-110) // RISK 2.2 to WIN 2.0
PARLAY #2 (+231) // RISK 1.3 to WIN 3.0
PARLAY #3 (+273) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 3.0
PARLAY #4 (+400) // RISK 1.5 to WIN 6.0
PARLAY #5 (+1100) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 11.0
LONGSHOT CHEAT CARROLL ‘WHY NOT US’ PARLAY (+10000) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 100.0
A -12 unit assbeating for the Snaker’s Dozen. Our first assbeating (of many) on the season.
My thoughts on the games in no particular thought-out order:
I am aware that nobody cares about this shitty Thursday night game except me – but I’m going to rant.
I can’t even look at this scoring summary without feeling physically ill. I had the Under 57.5 with 2 units on the line and I don’t give a shit what the final score says – I was correct about this game.
This game had zero business going Over in a rational world. However the ULL coach Billy Napier doesn’t live in a rational world. He apparently lives in a world where he gambles on the totals in his own football games and does whatever he has to do to hit Overs.
Take a look at this drive ULL put together during the final minutes of the game while leading 42-14.
Just to summarize – ULL was winning by 28 points when they took the ball at midfield and put their backup qb in. They then proceeded to enter into a no-huddle hurry-up offense which included several passes. Ohio somehow forced them into a 4th and 8 at which point ULL (the team up by 28 points) took a timeout to draw up a play to go for it. After completing a deep pass over the middle, ULL (the team winning by 28 points) then sprinted up to the ball again and threw another PASS to score with 48 seconds left and drive the total Over.
I had never been so confused in my life. I felt sick to my stomach watching this unfold. I had a hard time falling asleep that night. I began questioning why I even do this shit. (I also began questioning Billy Napier on Twitter, but myself and the other people questioning him never received any answers).
.@coach_bnapier you had the over I take it?
— Brian Deegan (@snigg_mct) September 17, 2021
Any idea how to launch an SEC investigation into @coach_bnapier ? Maybe we fire up a class action lawsuit?
— Brian Deegan (@snigg_mct) September 17, 2021
Up 28 on this drive. Total was 57. pic.twitter.com/zaaw3T9MVn
— Stuckey (@Stuckey2) September 17, 2021
28 point lead running tempo with 40 seconds left. Billy Napier resume bullet point #1
— Collin Wilson (@_Collin1) September 17, 2021
Billy Napier is a classless scumbag, not a doubt in my mind he had the over that rat bastard
— Ohio State Ev (@DoubleVodkaDon) September 17, 2021
"Scared money don't make money."
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) September 17, 2021
Billy Napier is a national treasurepic.twitter.com/LkTb1QcQwd
“A national treasure” for gambling on his own games? Ok then what does that make Pete Rose – “The Eighth Wonder of the World”??
I officially hate Billy Napier. He cost me two units, two hours of sleep, and almost stole my passion for sports gambling from me. Thankfully I woke up the next morning inspired and ready to lose some more money.
I had the Over 67.5 locked up, but also needed UCF -6. The ending of this game was so insane that I wasn’t even angry watching Louisville cash in the game winning TD.
In a late tie game situation you pretty much have one responsibility – don’t do anything dumb that could possibly risk a 1% chance of turning the ball over.
Against all odds, both QBs throw risky passes and turn it over back-to-back. If this ending doesn’t scream ‘Friday night college football’ then I don’t know what does.
I literally looked at this game and said out loud “Wow I’m going to fall for that VT rat.” Then I basically walked up to a mousetrap and headbutted the part that you set the bait on.
Yet again my Nittany Lions save my ship from completely sinking. I get the PSU cover, the under, AND the same-game parlay on both. I’m not exaggerating when I say that this game accounted for more than 50% of my winnings this week. (That’s not good.)
It’s almost as if the only team I religiously follow is the only team I can accurately predict as far as how the game will pan out.
Nebraska dicks around and makes the game look close to the casual observer – but don’t let that distract you from the fact that they suck and Scott Frost will be getting fired when they are 2-6.
Just in case anybody has failed to hear me mention it 25 times now – UofM and FSU are the most overrated teams in football every season and you can make money by being aware of this fact.
These guys are currently failing to cover spreads on a weekly basis by a combined 30 points. But hey, “THE U IS BACK. FLORIDA STATE IS BACK.”
While we are on the topic of teams that suck, Indiana sucks, and their cheating ass quarterback sucks too. Cincinnati ML -175 was eeeeeasy money.
I attribute a large portion of my damage last week to falling in love with both UCLA and Arizona State. I got double blindsided by these guys for a cool 4.2 unit loss. That’s what I deserve for trying to understand the Pac 12.
UConn gets the backdoor cover TD on a 4th and goal because of course they do. Whatever. Doesn’t change the fact that I will continue to fade them.
GREAT. TEAMS. COVER.
— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) September 18, 2021
UCONN +35 ✅ pic.twitter.com/StkkQtVm6z
I’m genuinely curious to know what took place in this football game. Guess which team I bet on (Hint: it’s the team with -19 rushing yards).
After jumping out to a 14-0 2nd quarter lead, the Fat Travs proceeded to give up 45 straight points to some true freshman with eyeblack painted on his face vertically.
Aside from allowing me to lose straight up on Fat Travs +8.5, they also managed to cost me 11 units on Parlay #5.
And THANK GOD Illinois didn’t squeak out the win against Maryland or else coach Fat Trav would be on my immediate shit list alongside Billy Napier.
Question – What can we learn from this past week?
Answer – Who gives a shit, let’s win some units.
The Rules of Sports Gambling by Snaker’s Dozen:
Rule #1 – You are due.
Rule #2 – See Rule #1.
Rule #3 – When it starts to hurt, turn up the dial. More units. Also, see Rule #1.
🏈 CFB WEEK 4 WINNERS 🏈
Marshall @ App State OVER 58.5 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
Depending on which way the wind is blowing whenever I see an App State line I either tell myself “they score a shit ton of points” or “they never score points.” I have been trying to get a feel on these guys for 10 years now. I’m just going to look at the stats:
Anyone mind if I turn a blind eye to that defense and stare at the offensive stats? OVER. EASY.
(Also I refuse to take a Thursday night under after last week’s Billy Napier mishap.)
Wake Forest @ Virginia OVER 67 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
These offenses are fun as shit. I still haven’t watched them, but I think I heard that on a podcast. Firing another over on this one.
Sidenote – I am going to be down near Charlottesville on Friday night so I decided to take a peek at ticket prices.
Turns out Virginia football fans literally could not care any less. Convincing my wife to go into this football game could prove difficult, but maybe I will try to sway her with those $10 ticket prices and the 80 offensive points I expect to see.
Liberty -6 @ Syracuse (-110) // RISK 2.2 to WIN 2.0
If you don’t know by now then I don’t want you betting this game with me. Cue Hugh!
UNLV @ Fresno State -30.5 (-115) // RISK 1.15 to WIN 1.0
Was sitting around with Mattural last weekend and something inspired us to check on Tate Martell and UNLV.
Turns out it wasn’t good.
A) How is it possible that he STILL isn’t starting?
B) How bad does UNLV suck to put up 100 yards of offense against ISU and lose by 45?
Fresno State by 5 touchdowns seems like easy money to me. Maybe if we are lucky we will even get to see some Martell action in this one.
Georgia -34.5 @ Vanderbilt (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
Vanderbilt TEAM TOTAL UNDER 7.5 (-120) // RISK 1.2 to WIN 1.0
The Dawgs very well might have the best team defense in the country. Vanderbilt was performing publicity stunts and having a girl kick for them last year. I genuinely don’t think they score. And I think Georgia scores in the 40s without breaking a sweat.
LSU @ Miss State MONEYLINE (+110) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 1.1
LSU @ Miss State OVER 56 (-105) // RISK 1.05 to WIN 1
Mississippi St won this game by 10 points last year on LSU’s home turf. The final score was 44-34.
Even if this game looks sort of like that game – both of these bets would cash.
It sounds like an insane thing to say, but if I’m starting a football team I would take Mike Leach over Coach O and quite frankly I don’t think it’s close. That being said, if I’m assembling a red bull chugging team I want Coach O with my first round pick.
Notre Dame vs Wisconsin -5.5 (-115) // RISK 1.15 to WIN 1.0
An absolute MUST-BET game.
I can see a world where Jack Coan does some corny ass interview after the game talking about “what it means” to come out and beat his former football team on a national stage. Then again – it’s Jack Coan. I can also see a world where he throws for 180 yards and 2 picks and Wisconsin wins by 17 points.
Sidenote – a couple of my pals and I got into a dust-up with some Wisconsin fan a few weeks ago in Madison when he told us “I run this city.” The dude had a white #17 Jack Coan jersey and a fucking visor on his head. All indications point to him being sincere with his appearance and his running the city comment. I don’t know what to do with this information and how it pertains to this game, but once I know the outcome it’s going to feel very obvious to me what side I should have bet based on that douche.
Ohio @ Northwestern -15 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
Oh my goodness is Ohio is bad. Somebody needs to do a 30 for 30 on what went wrong at that school.
Getting curbstomped by Syracuse and Louisiana IN ADDITION to losing to Duquesne.
If I wasn’t from Western PA there is zero shot I would know what Duquesne is.
(Please tell me that field is a joke)
I know Northwestern isn’t great this year, but I am pretty sure this score ends up around 38-14.
Texas Tech @ Texas OVER 61 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
I can’t keep all of those irrelevant southern football rivalries straight anymore – Red River, Bedlam, Your Grandfather’s Bourbon Game.
I looked this one up and it’s called the Battle For The Chancellor’s Spurs. That might be dumber than that Grandfather Bourbon one I just made up.
Texas is coming off a big bounceback week against Rice where they scored 58 points. And I’m still pretending Texas Tech is running the Mike Leach / Kliff Kingsbury offense.
Toldeo -5 @ Ball State (-105) // RISK 1.05 to WIN 1.0
Need I remind you guys that Ball State is an FCS school in terms of talent? I’m still daydreaming about watching PSU’s RBs bouncing it around the edge and breaking 7 tackles per carry.
We need to ignore the fact that Toledo lost big to Colorado State and focus on the fact that they could/should have beat Notre Dame. Something is brewing in Toledo, Ohio and I think that something may be the 2021 MAC Champions.
Illinois @ Purdue UNDER 55.5 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
Does this shit not sound like the most boring game of all time? It’s a damn shame this one doesn’t kick off at 11am local time.
Iowa State @ Baylor MONEYLINE (+250) // RISK 0.8 to WIN 2.0
Don’t look now, but Baylor is scoring 47 points and putting up 320 rushing yards a game (against 3 shitty teams). Meanwhile Iowa State has Brock Purdy.
Louisville @ Florida State UNDER 62 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
Louisville -2.5 @ Florida State (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
Louisville MONEYLINE @ Florida State (-120) // RISK 1.2 to WIN 1.0
My first glance at this game resulted in me saying “both of these teams stink therefore I should take the under.”
However, after further review, Louisville is the play. Louisville has one loss to a red hot Ole Miss team and Florida State’s most respectable game has come against a Notre Dame team that nobody can get a read on. They also have an impossibly bad loss to a JV team and one of their players proposed on the field while the shitty school was still celebrating. I know the cool thing today is to make sure nobody’s feelings get hurt and praise that kid as a hero but that’s enough FSU for me on the season.
Give me Louisville and Coach Scott Satterfield. The dude bleeds red (literally).
Amid reports Scott Satterfield interviewed with South Carolina, Louisville AD Vince Tyra responded to a text as follows: “Nothing new to report from my end.”
— Tim Sullivan (@TimSullivan714) December 5, 2020
Rutgers @ Michigan -18.5 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
Part of the reason I still have Iowa at No. 10 behind Penn State and Ohio State. This is yards per play differential compared to points differential. It’s going to be difficult to maintain the current performance. pic.twitter.com/9i8bP7OEuq
— Tom Fornelli (@TomFornelli) September 21, 2021
I saw this graphic the other day and that was enough for me. Rutgers’ point differential through three games screams ‘lucky.’ These bastards are due to come back down to earth and wouldn’t you know it, they are playing Michigan who has been beating this piss out of everyone they play.
Texas A&M @ Arkansas MONEYLINE (+180) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 1.8
Texas A&M @ Arkansas +5.5 (-115) // RISK 1.15 to WIN 1.0
Go Hogs.
Nebraska @ Michigan State -5 (-105) // RISK 3.15 to WIN 3.0
My favorite play of the week and second place isn’t close. The only reason I don’t have 10 units on this play is out of caution for a potential rat. When I saw this line I thought it was a mistake. Surely they meant to set it at -15, not -5.
All Michigan State has done is win convincingly this year. And all Nebraska has done is fail to live up to expectations (for the 19th year in a row).
Live look at Scott Frost in his desk chair:
Akron @ Ohio State -49 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
This line is too goddam funny not to play it. 49 points right on the money. “No half point on either side lets just make it a cool even 7 TDs” -some big-shot executive at Caesars Sportsbook.
The rumor mill is currently swirling with CJ Stroud information, but quite frankly I do not care. Ohio State has FOUR 4/5 QBs on their roster. I’ll take my chances with any of them hanging 7 TDs on Akron.
Well, any of them except that douchebag with the mullet.
West Virginia +17.5 @ Oklahoma (-135) // RISK 1.35 to WIN 1.0
West Virginia MONEYLINE @ Oklahoma (+550) // RISK 0.4 to WIN 2.2
The moment I saw this game on the schedule I could hear the Lee Corso “NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND” going off over and over inside my brain. This has shades of 2020 OKLA vs KSU written all over it. For those of you that don’t remember that game, Oklahoma let Kansas State hang around for 4 quarters and ended up surrendering 17 4th quarter points to their 0 to allow KSU to win by 3. (The only reason I remember that game is becuase I lost my mind and live bet Oklahoma ML 746 times during it.)
You can tell yourself “Oklahoma is due to turn it on this week” until you are blue in the face. That doesn’t change the fact that they are just as likely to take another step backwards as they are to take 4 steps forward.I like West Virginia to hang around and maybe even steal this thing late.
Cal @ Washington UNDER 45.5 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
Cal +7.5 @ Washington (-115) // RISK 1.15 to WIN 1.0
F John Donovan. I haven’t watched one second of Cal football this year, but I don’t need to if they are gonna square off with Washington.
Oregon State +12.5 @ USC (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
Oregon State MONEYLINE @ USC (+375) // RISK 0.4 to WIN 1.5
The Fat Travs took a big old dump in my cornflakes last week after starting out 14-0 on USC. There’s no chance my Beavers are going to do that to me again.
Also – F the kid with vertical eyeblack. No chance I’m betting on him.
PARLAY #1 (+110) // RISK 2.0 to WIN 2.2
Ok so was nobody going to tell me about these “sweetheart parlays” ??? Goodness gracious I’m teasing these lines by 13 points. NO SHOT any of these lose.
PARLAY #2 (+950) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 9.5
I said I would never do the stupid ass Travey 1:1 thing again, but yet here I am stringing together a 9.5:1 moneyline favorites parlay.
I am one dumb son of a bitch.
LONGSHOT CHEAT CARROLL ‘WHY NOT US’ PARLAY (+9200) // RISK 0.5 to WIN 46.0
The Cheat Carroll parlay is so overdue that it’s not even dunny.
Let’s screw around and hit one this week. WHY NOT US, CHEAT!
That’s all, folks. Have a blessed Week 4.