COLLEGE FOOTBALL WE ARE OFFICIALLY BACK
(FOR THE OPENING WEEKEND THAT IS ACTUALLY THE SECOND WEEK).
What’s up fam? I hope you had yourself a nice little Week 0 full of good food and high ABVs. Perhaps even put a little bit of coin in your pocket (as long as you weren’t tailing my parlays). Full disclosure, I was at a gender reveal party. So I may or may not have been fully vested into the games (Fact check: I was fully invested). But let’s just say that picking the baby’s gender was probably my best play of the weekend and the amount of effort I put into that was 0.01% of what I put into betting these football games. That’s probably a sign I should stop doing this.
Sidenote – this was my second attempt at launching the gender confetti cannon and the first time I shot myself in the chest with it. All systems go this time around. So things are looking up. And also a quick congrats to Matty Light #GirlDad
I want to dive right into this Week 1 Labor Day slate of games, but we should quickly recap our very, very overdue first Saturday of football.
Here’s how the Snaker’s Dozen ended up last week:
🏈 CFB WEEK 0 RECAP 🏈
WE LIMP OUT OF WEEK ZERO UP BY 1.0 UNIT!
I don’t love it, but I’ll take it.
As far as the cliffnotes – I was dead right on the Nebraska @ Illinois game. I forgot to handicap Illinois quarterback breaking everything in his shoulder during the first quarter, but I still managed to pull off the moneyline sprinkle. The bottom line is Nebraska fucking sucks. I continue to look forward to the 2-6 firing of Scott Frost.
Other than that, I don’t have a lot to say about Week 0. I would have had myself a nice week had I not dug myself a 3.3 unit hole by placing stupid ass parlays. Kind of hilarious that I teased 3 games by 10 points and 2 of them still managed to be incorrect. Shoutout to UConn for preparing for a game for 2 years just to lose by 50 and get blanked.
That being said, I will continue to place them. I knew what I was getting myself into. You miss 100 Cheat Carroll Parlays before you hit the big one. I know this and I will continue to do it. The parlays are EXACTLY who I thought they were.
So let’s move on to greener pastures and jump right into it. “We’ll get em next week” as every 40 year old dad likes to tell his Little League baseball kid.
And good news for us – this week is an absolute doozy. When I see a graphic like this…
…my primary care physician looks at me and says “it looks like all of your jollies are in working order.”
There’s only two more things I need to mention before getting to this week’s picks.
- You should be
fadingfollowing Trav’s picks over at The $ix-Rack. - We should refresh ourselves with the gambling rules.
The Rules of Sports Gambling by Snaker’s Dozen:
Rule #1 – You are due.
Rule #2 – See Rule #1.
Rule #3 – When it starts to hurt, turn up the dial. More units. Also, see Rule #1.
🏈 CFB WEEK 1 WINNERS 🏈
Boise State @ UCF -5.5 (-120) // RISK 1.2 to WIN 1.0
After sitting here trying to talk myself into betting Boise State for 5 minutes, I finally came to the realization I should just bet UCF. Truth be told I hate UCF, which is probably why I was having so much trouble betting them.
But at the end of the day I have a proven home team favored by less than a TD. Both teams have brand new coaches. One of those coaches has 68 wins in the SEC. And the other coach has 0 wins ever and his name is Andy Avalos. Also, I’m pretty sure he was Boise State’s backup choice after Kellen Moore.
So yeah, I’m all set. I’ll take my chances with Malzahn having his boys more ready to play than some grown man who still goes by the name Andy.
East Carolina vs. App State OVER 58.5 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
I don’t like either the spread or the total in this one. But you don’t have a pulse if you don’t bet this game. Terrific Sun Belt action on a Thursday in the Carolina Panthers stadium. I will simply take a blind over and root for a fun, competitive game. FOOTBALL.
Ohio State @ Minnesota UNDER 65.5 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
As much as I’d love to bet on Ohio State to beat the brakes off of Hot Tub Time Machine PJ Fleck, I think the Under is the safer play. Ohio State essentially has a bunch of brand new shit under the hood. It’s probably going to be awesome, but let’s start with a test drive.
According to Bill Connelly they will rank 125th in returning production.
Plus it goes without say that this will be PJ Fleck’s super bowl just like every big game is his super bowl because he is a try-hard loser and the only thing in life that brings him happiness is spoiling the happiness of ranked teams. That and painfully unfunny comedic films.
UNC -5.5 (-110) @ Virginia Tech // RISK 2.2 to WIN 2.0
This game smells like an absolute Vegas rat and I am taking all of the cheese.
I was completely taken aback to see this spread was less than 10 points.
Yes I am aware it’s the opening weekend. Yes I am aware that Blacksburg will be blasting Enter Sandman in front of a packed Friday night house under the lights.
But I am also aware that I am being offered Sam Howell + Mack Brown to win by a TD for even money. So I have no choice but to take it.
Sidenote – have I talked about how obvious it is that Mack Brown is doing something illegal down there?
#BREAKING: 5-star defensive lineman Travis Shaw makes it official and commits to North Carolina 🔥@cheesy_Trav18 is overcome with emotion as he throws on that @UNCFootball 🙏 pic.twitter.com/3w5uLEtb61
— 247Sports (@247Sports) August 21, 2021
Duke MONEYLINE (-260) @ Charlotte // RISK 2.6 to WIN 1.0
I am fully aware this isn’t a basketball game but let’s get serious for a second. One team is Duke and the other team is the Charlotte 49ers. I’ll take my chances with a real program and I’ll take my 1 free unit.
EZ Money 💰 pic.twitter.com/LA24DpcBsv
— Orlando Brown Jr. (@ZEUS__57) December 10, 2020
Michigan State @ Northwestern UNDER 45.0 (-105) // RISK 1.05 to WIN 1.0
It didn’t matter if that total started with a 3, 4, or 5.
If it was anything less than 60 I was going under.
Penn State +4.5 (-105) @ Wisconsin // RISK 10.5 to WIN 10.0
Before you pound the table and say “Snake has lost his mind,” I want you to know that me and T-Man placed these bets like 2 months ago. Idk if that makes it better or worse, but I didn’t place this 10.5 unit bet on a whim.
That spread is straight up stupid. If Penn State loses this game by a field goal then I get to cash my ticket? What on earth. Who decided that Wisconsin was on Ohio State’s level?
I guess I’m the only guy around here that realizes Graham Mertz is a wildly overrated punkass kid. Want to see the most douchey 8 second video in history?
Coming soon... pic.twitter.com/XDhapgrRrr
— Graham Mertz (@GrahamMertz5) June 28, 2021
I got 5 on it? Yeah you threw 5 touchdowns against an Illinois team that wanted to postpone its 2020 season and fired its coach a few weeks later. I’m about as impressed as I was after finding out Danny Almonte was striking out kids 2 years younger than him.
Lets look at Graham’s stats. Remove the Illinois game from the equation and tell me what game I’m supposed to be impressed with last year:
Credit where credit is due…Wiscy always seems to come out the gates RED HOT every year and trick people into thinking they are a top 10, maybe even a top 5 team. They rattle off a few impressive victories and then usually drop a game that nobody sees coming. On the other side of the coin, Penn State is notorious for starting the season (and each game for that matter) piss flat.
But I’m taking all historical evidence and setting it aside. This is 2021. James Franklin NEEDS to win. He needs it. He can not afford to lose this game. It is time to put up or shut up for CJF. I have to imagine he has dedicated the last 8 months of his life to figuring out how to win this game. He’s been living and breathing and thinking about this game. That’s it.
Lastly, I would just like to warn you that when you put this game on your TV I don’t want you to be surprised that the stadium is half-full. Rumor has it that some fans (some fans being me) overbought tickets thinking they could resell them and the tickets are about as valuable as used toilet paper.
Long story short – evidently nobody in Wisconsin gives a shit about this football game and no matter how cheap I list my extra tickets I can’t sell them. So I don’t exactly expect a harsh road environment.
Stanford @ Kansas State UNDER 53 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
Take whatever I said about the Michigan State @ NW game and apply it here as well. I can already see David Shaw punting on 4th and 1 at midfield.
The only thing that scares me even a little bit is that 5-foot-tall RB from Kansas State ripping off 200 yards and going for 3 tds. The man is a force to be reckoned with.
Alabama -19 (-110) vs. Miami // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
Everyone knows the old phrase about the guaranteed things in life.
- It’s death.
- It’s taxes.
- And it’s betting against a criminally overrated UofMiami team.
My records indicate Miami is 22-28 against the spread over the last 4 seasons. And yet we’ve got them ranked #14 heading into this season.
Roll tide.
Louisiana +8 (-110) @ Texas // RISK 2.2 to WIN 2.0
Louisiana MONEYLINE (+270) @ Texas // RISK 1.0 to WIN 2.7
The ‘Texas is back’ mantra is so overplayed at this point it’s not even funny. I do not care about Texas. I could not be any more indifferent about Texas. If Texas died in a fire tonight I’d say, “Oh damn. Hey is there any more IPAs in the fridge?”
Again, I do not care about Texas. But I do enjoy making money. And this Louisiana team is a dangerous team. They lined up with Iowa State last year for the opening weekend and beat the living piss out of the Cyclones.
These two teams could not be starting off the season any more different. The Ragin Cajuns are basically returning everybody from last year, and Texas is fresh off a Tom Herman firing and Sam Ehlinger’s 7th year in college. All I know is that if I was a fan of Texas, I’d be prepared for the worst and remain cautiously optimistic for the future.
I suspect we will see a few more 8-4 and 7-5 seasons coming under ‘Drunk @ 6AM Call Me’ Sark.
Texas Tech vs Houston OVER 65.0 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
Is it just me or does it suddenly smell like points around here? A mid 60s total between Texas Tech and Houston? And Texas Tech has a shiny new QB from Oregon? Sign me up for the Over.
I’m well aware that Kliff Kingsbury and Tom Herman aren’t participating in this game, but let’s be honest, it still kind of feels like those guys are participating in this game.
Georgia +3.5 (-115) vs Clemson // RISK 2.3 to WIN 2.0
Georgia vs Clemson OVER 51.5 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
If you didn’t think I was going to ride with the Dawgs after a letdown 2020 season you are out of your mind. They are still Mattural’s bulldogs. They are still my bulldogs. I don’t need any other reasons to believe in them. GO DAWGS.
And if you’re scratching your head at that Over, stop what you’re doing and listen up. This is a new era. Think LSU 2019. Think Alabama 2018.
You are going to see a new Dawgs offense that AIRS the ball out under JT Daniels. Points on top of points. The Dawgs are going to score so many points that their defense might actually give up a few tds due to pure fatigue. This Over is a LOCK. Just look at this man:
PS – Get your Dawgs NCAAF Championship and JT Daniels Heisman futures in while you still can.
LSU @ UCLA MONEYLINE (+140) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 1.4
LSU @ UCLA +4.0 (-105) // RISK 2.1 to WIN 2.0
I don’t have the slightest clue why this game is being played between these two teams, but thank your lucky stars that somebody scheduled this. On a neutral field this game is a pickem. On UCLA’s home turf (coming off a Hawaii assbeating) this game should be a 3 point line….in favor of….UCLA.
🚨 WRONG TEAM IS FAVORED ALERT 🚨
Goodness gracious I thought we were back before, but we are OFFICIALLY OFFICIALLY back. We have ourselves the first instance of the wrong team being favored.
If UCLA was a stock – they’d be Microsoft.
If LSU was a stock – they’d be Alibaba.
And right now you have the chance to buy low on UCLA, and sell high on LSU.
Coach O is a straight up dumbass. I once heard a story about him drinking a 4-pack of Red Bulls during a single road trip and it went in one ear and out the other. Then recently I saw the below photo of him and his kids DRINKING RED BULLS OUT OF GLASSWARE.
HAVING A GREAT DINNER WITH MY BOYZ!! GEAUX TIGERS!! pic.twitter.com/JGtwpwYFAb
— Coach Ed Orgeron (@Coach_EdOrgeron) July 26, 2021
I’m fascinated on two fronts.
- I’m fascinated that someone can be so unintelligent that they are sipping recreational Red Bulls on the rocks.
- I’m fascinated that Coach O has surpassed 60 years of age without dying of cardiac arrest.
I need you to do exactly what I have done with regard to the LSU football team of 2019. And that is to wipe it from your memory.
DO NOT allow yourself to believe this LSU team is well-rounded. What happened in 2019 was the result of an absolute perfect storm. That team won in spite of Coach O and all of his idiot buddies on the staff. This team is a ticking time bomb and things will only get worse before Coach O is shit-canned. He will be in the news for accepting a job at some mid-tier AAC school in no time. (And bonus prediction – Billy Napier will be the head coach cleaning up the mess Coach O leaves behind).
I have no idea what Ed Orgeron just said. pic.twitter.com/Lbrj6vtnIi
— Jeff Eisenband (@JeffEisenband) December 8, 2019
On the other side of that coin, UCLA is heating up. Chip Kelly has his QB (shoutout to DTR) and we are all witnessing what could be another 2011 Oregon-esque run. Plus I LOVE the fact that UCLA got to fine-tune things during Week 0 against Hawaii.
Notre Dame @ Florida State UNDER 56.0 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
Notre Dame -6 (-140) @ Florida State // RISK 1.4 to WIN 1.0
As much as you don’t want to take Notre Dame, it is an absolute mockery that I can get them at -6 here. This Florida State team might be more overrated than the boys down in Miami.
And again, as much as you don’t want to take Notre Dame, this is the PERFECT Notre Dame spot. Low expectations, in a prime time slot that nobody will watch, and a chance to prove themselves against a team that nobody yet realizes sucks.
And finally, as much as you don’t want to take Notre Dame, do you really want to bet on this guy?
Mike Norvell is going to fit right in at #FSU pic.twitter.com/m8h6IxjZZf
— Zach Wendkos (@zwendkos) December 7, 2019
Oh one last thing. It’s more of a PSA. Notre Dame’s starting quarterback is none other than vanilla ice cream Jack Coan. So go ahead and take Notre Dame Unders for the entire year.
Louisville vs Ole Miss -9.5 (-110) // RISK 1.1 to WIN 1.0
Oh baby we’ve got ourselves some Monday night football. It’s a Monday night partaaayyy!!!
Sigh. I miss that old racist guy who used to jam out in the MNF intro song. I wonder what he’s up to today. Probably cutting the Nike logos off his socks and telling his friends that he quit watching the NFL, despite the fact that he secretly watches the NFL religiously.
Anywho, you have to take Lane Kiffin in this spot. He’s got that NFL head coaching experience. Despite the fact that the Raiders did not play on a Monday night in the single year he coached there, I feel like he would have had the boys ready if the opportunity presented itself.
Plus I just love that video where the Ole Miss fans greeted him at the runway.
New Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin holding babies and greeting fans after landing in Oxford. pic.twitter.com/8MMN1ga6cZ
— SuperTalk News (@SuperTalkNews) December 8, 2019
🚨THE CUZ CHRIS GUEST PICK🚨
Miami (OH) @ Cincinnati -23 (-105) // RISK 2.1 to WIN 2.0
A late addition to the plethora of picks I already have comes courtesy of Cousin Chris. Don’t ask me how we are related, but one time we talked it out over a few beers and found a common relative (sort of).
I don’t hand guest picks out like candy, but I received the following photo in the Sunday morning groupchat and there’s no denying that the man is feeling it:
I’ve always been taught to strike while the iron is hot, and apparently Chris is holding a scolding hot iron.
So I’m taking his guest pick and tossing a healthy 2.1 units on it. For what it’s worth he also gave me UNC -5.5 but I will not be doubling down as I already have entirely too much exposure to that Vegas rat cheese.
PARLAY #1 (+240) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 2.4
The 10 point teaser returns! It’s not like it can do any worse than last week! Notre Dame +2.5 against FSU has to make you laugh out loud. If FSU wins that game I may retire from betting altogether.
Essentially this is a handful of my favorite bets from the weekend with 10 points of insurance and an Oklahoma Over cherry on top.*
*Unrelated: If I had a do-over, I would remove the Oklahoma Over from this parlay. I could feel that one losing as I clicked ‘submit’ on the bet.
PARLAY #2 (+590) // RISK 1.0 to WIN 5.9
My two favorite teams are both single digit dogs in games that they could arguably be favored. Give me the moneyline on both.
Go Dawgs. Go PSU.
PARLAY #3 (+145) // RISK 2.0 to WIN 2.9
I don’t know if he’s still doing it, but last year Trav used to place a bet he nicknamed the “1:1” where he would stack a bunch of favorites together until a parlay produced +100 even odds.
What I just did is uncomfortably similar to that unsuccessful strategy so I fear that I may have a loser in there. But I just don’t see it. I love all 4 of these teams and the oddsmakers are basically daring me to take UNC and ND. So I’m going to do just that.
I hope this strategy is the start of something beautiful. If this thing hits then maybe I’ll start employing it every week and call it the “2.9:2.”
LONGSHOT CHEAT CARROLL ‘WHY NOT US’ PARLAY (+10140) // RISK 0.5 to WIN 50.7
Cheat is back and he is back with a vengeance. Nothing says “I’m not here to fuck around” like a 100:1 parlay.
Let’s make Vegas regret handing this one out.
Good luck this weekend and more importantly look for me on TV at the Wisconsin game berating Graham Mertz from my nosebleeder seat (It’ll be easy to spot me because I’ll be the only guy at the game).