Things are back to normal here with another 3-2 week for me and another guest pick loss. Shoutout to Matt Woman though for ending the streak the week prior. One day, when you eventually develop a functioning memory, you will be able to tell your friends you were the person that ended the $ix Rack 9-game losing skid.
Turns out I jinxed the boring playoff picture. I should have known Coach O couldn’t go a whole year without wreaking havoc. Here is the playoff picture (take 2).
This assumes a few things (and you know what they say about assumptions…)
- OSU beats Northwestern to win B1G
- Texas A&M defeats Tennessee
- Big 12 and Pac 12 are left out
Surprisingly, this highly statistical model I made up just now seems to suggest that Texas A&M has a better chance of making the playoff than I’d originally thought, as it makes the playoff in 3 of 4 scenarios. However, the lone scenario where they get left out is statistically most likely to happen. Vegas suggests either a Notre Dame win (+300 or 16.7%) or a Florida win (+490 or 10.2%) means A&M has roughly only a 25.2% chance of getting in.
The others:
- Alabama: 100%
- Notre Dame: 91.5%
- Clemson 85%
Let’s compare this to ESPN’s prediction:
As much fun as it would be to see anyone on the list from Cincinnati and below get in, I will just break it to you now and let you know they are getting left out 99.999% of the time. ESPN gives USC a remarkable 49.7% chance of getting in – even BETTER than Clemson. But my question is who does USC jump to get in ANY of those scenarios? Not a 1-loss Bama. Not a 1-loss Clemson. Not a 1-loss Notre Dame. Not a 0-loss Ohio State. I can promise you USC will not be rewarded for only playing 6 games this year. Even with a win this weekend, they will have zero top 25 wins. Zero.
The only question left to answer is whether they jump a 1-loss Texas A&M in the first (and most likely) scenario. After all, Texas A&M has only one ranked win (against Florida) and A&M did lose to Alabama by 28 points earlier this year. I think the chances of this happening would be something like maybe 20%? So just for fun, let’s throw USC into the equation just to make this fun.
Trav’s Highly Statistical Playoff Chance Model:
- Alabama: 100.0%
- Ohio State 100%
- Notre Dame: 91.5%
- Clemson 85.0%
- Texas A&M 20.2%
- USC: 5.0%
- Everyone else: 0.001%
So there you have it.
In the NFL, all you need to know is the Bills might actually win the AFC East for the first since 1995. Hopefully I didn’t just jinx it.
*Editor’s Note:
WEEK 15 RECAP
1. BYU -16 (vs. SDSU) – 
LOSER
Final Score: BYU 28 – SDSU 14
BYU lets me down yet again. What an erratic relationship we have had this year. I’m like Joseph Gordon-Leyvitt in 500 Days of Summer, falling for Zooey Deschanel only to get my heart ripped out in the end.
2. Army -6.5 (vs. Navy) – 
WINNER
Final Score: Army 15 – Navy 0
Navy kept this interesting for a while but the fact remains that Army is at least a TD better than Navy 9/10 times they play each other.
3. WVU +13.5 (vs. Oklahoma) USC -3.5 @ UCLA – 💰WINNER💰
Final Score: USC 43 – UCLA 38
USC -3.5 vs UCLA subbing in for WVU +13.5 vs OU. (Didn’t like that one anyways.)
— G. Wintergreen (@mitchmcthree) December 12, 2020
Had to pull the Saturday afternoon audible on the WVU vs. Oklahoma game as it was cancelled on Thursday. I have no clue how I was unaware this happened but no worries, USC had us covered (pun intended). The Trojans were able to mount a late comeback to pull this one out.
Scoring a TD down 2 at the end was truly magical and reminded me of why I do this to myself every weekend. That being said…
TOUCHDOWN #USC❕🙌👀
— Scott Schrader (@Scott_Schrader) December 13, 2020
Trojans lead UCLA 43-38 with 16 seconds left to play @USCScoop #FightOn✌️ pic.twitter.com/2unsibDmun
4. Saints -6.5 (vs. Eagles) – LOSER
Final Score: Saints 21 – Eagles 24
This game cost me enough money that I contemplated retiring from gambling (for about 10 minutes).
5. Ravens -1.5 (vs. Browns) – WINNER
Final Score: Ravens 47 – Browns 42
Definitely the NFL game of the year so far. I found myself multiple times during the game alternating between “there’s no way the Ravens win” and “there’s no way the Ravens lose.” What a bumpy roller coaster ride this cover was. The win probability chart on ESPN gives you a good idea of my emotions during the fourth quarter.
That’s SIX times it swung from who was favored if you’re keeping track at home. One thing’s for sure, I am worried about the Bills playing either of these teams in the first round.
*Editor’s Note: Thoughts and prayers for Browns +3*
A WILD ending to a WILD game. #BALvsCLE pic.twitter.com/UJjNvjgyCA
— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2020
6. Guest Pick: Texans -1.5 (vs. Bears) – ❌LOSER❌
Final Score: Texans 7 – Bears 36
The Bears still are who we thought they were, and the Texans let them off the hook.
LSMLW: Arizona +360 (vs Arizona State) – LOSERLOSERLOSER
Final Score: Arizona 7 – Arizona 70
I can’t stop laughing about this one.
*Editor’s Note: Inside sources tell me that Trav’s roommate found out about this bet and informed him that he should lose more than the amount he wagered for losing this bet so badly. I agree with her 100%.*
1:1 (+105) – 
LOSER
Florida (vs. LSU) L
BYU (vs. San Diego State) W
Saints (vs. Eagles) L
Chiefs (vs. Dolphins) W
Not wasting my time trying to figure this one out.
What was I right about:
- Big Ben is washed
- Army > Navy
- Ravens > Browns
- USC still king of LA
- Boone, NC weather – current Boone weather forecast:
What was I wrong about:
- Patriots (hopefully)
- BYU
- OU-WVU playing a game
- Saints Train
- Arizona (times a million)
WEEK 15 WINNERS
Lucky for you Rack Pack, I spent way too much time in the lab this week. This week’s winners:
1. Oregon State +7.5 (vs. Arizona State)
I was very impressed with Oregon State last week against Stanford. If you didn’t watch the game, a late fumble in Stanford territory ended up costing them a win. I think the combination of the loss and the Fighting Herms (unlikely to be repeated) big win inflates this line way too much. I see no reason the Beavers can’t win this game outright.
2. Ohio State -20 (vs. Northwestern)
If you have read even one of these weekly $ix Rack columns, you know the drill.
3. Texas A&M -13.5 (vs. Tennessee)
This is A&M’s last chance to prove they should be in the playoff (although Trav’s Highly Statistical Playoff Chance Model suggests they won’t make it). I think they keep their foot on the gas in the second half and win by 20+ points.
4. Chiefs -3 (vs. Saints)
I thought this was a misprint. I know the Chiefs haven’t covered in five weeks despite winning every game (first time since 1986 Patriots) but let’s look at this more closely. They have been 7.5+ point favorites for 4 of those 5 games. And although they didn’t cover, they managed to find a way to win all 5 of these games (4 of them by 3+ points). And that’s what we need them to do here: find a way to win.
Though it was fun while it lasted, I’m officially off the Saints Train. After watching the Saints play the Eagles last week, I don’t think it’s that difficult to beat the Saints. Keep Taysom Hill in the pocket and let the guy make mistakes. For god’s sake, he’s a 30-year old dude but he has five starts at quarterback. (Side note: does this mean I still have a chance?).
And if Drew Brees does return (sounds very possible), let’s not forget how much he is struggling this year. His yards per game (244) is the lowest since his last year with the Chargers in 2005 and his yards per attempt is the lowest since 2010. He’s clearly not the same guy and I doubt eleven fractured ribs help.
Andy Reid and the Chiefs bully the Saints and win by a TD.
5. Eagles +6.5 (vs. Cardinals)
Yes the Eagles are 5-8 against the spread but they’re 1-0 with Jalen Hurts. I’m probably overreacting here but it seems like there’s just something about the guy. The Cardinals covered last week but failed to cover their four previous games. I think the Eagles keep this game close and might just win it outright.
6. Guest Pick: Notre Dame +10.5 (vs Clemson)
My brother, Dunny Boy, gets his stab at things this week. Pencil in a last second ND TD to get this to single digits so SVP and his fat friend can put it on their bad beats. The more I think about it, I feel like this is sheer destiny.
Long Shot Moneyline of the Week:
Panthers +333 (vs. Packers)
Let’s be serious, when you’re betting on a team +300 or more, you only have to hit one out of every three of these things to make your money back. (Notice, I said one out of every three not twelve.) So let’s hope for a strong finish here, because we’re running out of time.
Let’s face it, the Packers are due to lose a game they shouldn’t. A loss to the Panthers would qualify. Besides, we are simply DUE for a LSMLW.
Championship Parlay
Instead of the 1:1 this week, I’ll be doing a championship parlay. I’ve hit this in consecutive years, so I’m kind of banking on it yet again. It’s a basic strategy in that you just basically tease each line a few points one way or the other.
- Ohio State -19.5 (vs. Northwestern)
- Florida +21.5 (vs. Alabama)
- USC +3.5 (vs. Oregon)
- Iowa State +7.5 (vs. Oklahoma)
- Clemson -5.5 (vs. Notre Dame)
I am unable to get the odds of this through BetMGM or FanDuel currently but per Barstool app, this should be right around 10:1. This is a big payout for what I think is proportionally low-risk.
And that’s that for this week. I’d say we have about four weeks left here at the $ix Rack so it’s officially the fourth quarter. Throw up the tacky four fingers gesture and let’s get back to our winning ways in Week 15.