Whelp, week four was a rhyming word that starts with a “w” but sounds like an “h.” First things first – you may have noticed the name change this week. This is for three reasons:
- Turns out some fairly famous guy named Jason has a column titled “The Sick Pack” for fantasy football player props or something weird like that. Regardless, I decided I don’t wanna step on his toes or nothin’.
- I’ve always enjoyed someone referring to beer in a “rack” as opposed to a “pack.” Try to tell me that a “rack” of beer doesn’t get you hyped up more than a “pack” of beer. The thought of a thirty pack of Natty makes me nauseous. But a thirty rack of Natty has me ready to do a case race and run through a brick wall afterwards.
- We need a rebranding and a new psychological mindset after a 1-4-1 showing in Week 4
Most importantly, I decided we need a change in strategy this week. So, we are going to start playing the numbers as opposed to gut feelings and hunches because well… that’s got us 4 games below .500 after 4 weeks. So from now on, expect a cold hard statistic to back up all picks. And, the good news for all of you is I like to think of myself as a numbers guy. I know how to make 4 numbers equal 24 fairly quickly. And five months ago, I read like 10-12 pages of a Nate Silver book on the foundation of statistics.
That being said, crunching the numbers tells us we are just starting the second quarter of action given this is only week 5 of a 17-week season. So feel free to have given up on the Ea$y Money Sick Pack if you want, but don’t you dare give up on the $ix Rack just yet. Because we are back. And we never left.
And Editor, you will be sorry if you fade me this week. Mark. My. Words.
*Editors note: See below gif*
WEEK 4 RECAP
1. Ravens -13 (vs. Redskins) 
WINNER
Final Score: Ravens 31 – Redskins 17
Got this before the weekend at -13 and boy did we end up needing the extra point. Not sure what John Harbaugh was doing at the end of the game with RG III hucking passes down the field like he was trying to mount a comeback at Baylor. And the good news is for Dwayne Haskins is he won’t lead the league in interceptions while riding the pine.
2. Seahawks vs. Dolphins Over 54 
PUSH
Final Score: Seahawks 31 – Dolphins 23
(NOTE: I mistakenly had this listed at Over 52.5 last week but I actually had this at Over 54)
I cannot believe this game was a push. This game made no sense for 3.5 quarters. The score was actually 17-12 with 9 minutes left in the game… which means they scrambled for 25 points at the end just to push! However, the Dolphins only punted once all game and the Seahawks only punted twice. The Dolphins had to settle for 5 field goals, subsequently missing out on 20 points. And Russell Wilson decided to throw his first INT of the year… in the redzone. The teams both had over 400+ yards of offense. Both QB’s threw for over 300+ yards. But somehow, some way, the two teams could not hit the over. We can chalk this one up as tough luck.
3. OU -7 (vs. Iowa State) 
LOSER
Final Score: Iowa State 37 – Oklahoma 30
The only person, place, or thing that has had a more disappointing start to this season than the $ix Rack is OU football. And it might get even worse next week against Texas. The Big 12 conference continues to be a disappointment which may open a playoff spot for two teams from the same conference or a non-power 5 team like BYU. (Yes, I have a futures bet on BYU.)
4. Auburn +6.5 (vs. Georgia) LOSER
Final Score: Georgia 27 – Auburn 6
This was a royal ass beating. And it’s never fun being on the wrong end of it. Pencil Auburn in as a team we will bet against from here on out (foreshadowing – see below). Looked like Gus rocked the sick hat and tie but he sure as H, E, double hockey sticks didn’t mean business.
5. Miss St. -17.5 (vs. Arkansas) LOSER
Final Score: Arkansas 21 – Miss St. 14
How is this possible? Arkansas had lost 20 straight SEC games coming into this. Miss State just crushed the defending national champs last week. This game makes no sense… other than maybe Arkansas is better than we thought? (foreshadowing – see below)
(Anyone else think the mad scientist looks exactly like the guy who owned the Shell on the West End?)
6. 49ers -7 (vs. Eagles) LOSER
Final Score: Eagles 25 – 49ers 20
The Eagles are suddenly back. Picking against the Eagles two weeks in a row proved too risky this week. Nick Mullens was benched and subsequently relinquished his B.D. Nick II title. At least my friend, Eagles fan, is in a brighter place hopefully.
What was I right about:
- Ravens bounce back
- Coach Gumby Davis would murder me if I threw a pass like Brock Purdy did against TCU
What was I wrong about:
- Fitzy threw for 0 TD’s (not my predicted 4) and we didn’t celebrate a W together
- OU did not bounce back and may not bounce back at all
- Georgia vs Auburn game was an ass beating not a “coin flip”
- Mike Leach running up the points at will
- Nick Mullens in general
- “Freaks” over “pushovers”
WEEK 5 WINNERS
Onto week 5 featuring our first week of picks based on what the numbers tell us. Not biases, or hunches, or gut feelings!
I guess that’s not completely true. In actuality, I’d say it’s just more of the former with some of the latter sprinkled in.
Anyways, on the path to 6-0 – here we go!
1. Cardinals -6.5 (vs. Jets)
The Jets are 0-4 against the spread this year. And they’ve lost every game by at least 9+ points. Cannot imagine things getting any better with Joe Flacco starting at QB. I don’t care how disappointing the Cardinals have been the past two weeks, there is no way they do not win this game by more than a touchdown barring losing multiple players to fluke injuries, Covid 19, or a plane crash.
2. Panthers +1.5 (vs. Falcons)
I am stealing “the wrong team is favored” from the Editor this week. The Panthers are clearly better than we thought. They were winners of their last 2 games as underdogs vs two above average teams (Chargers and Cardinals). The Falcons D is second to last in both points per game allowed and yards per game allowed and are actually dead last in opposing QB’s passer rating. Dropping an extra guy in coverage will only open up the running game more and Mike Davis averaged over 5 yards per carry last week. Conversely, the Panthers D held Kyler Murray to 133 yards passing and Kenyan Drake to 35 yards rushing last week. The numbers (and common sense) tell you the Falcons play worse without Julio Jones – who is unlikely to play. I think the Panthers get the win, and (if so) one could wonder if Dan Quinn is the head coach of the Falcons this time next week.
3. Arkansas +14 (vs. Auburn)
As I previously alluded to, let’s take a two TD cushion with (presumably overrated) Auburn vs (presumably underrated) Arkansas. The Tigers started as an 18 point favorite and have moved all the way down to just 14 point favorites currently. Their offensive and defensive ranks are eerily similar so far:
Scoring: Auburn 65th vs Arkansas 68
Total yards: 71st vs 70th
Total yards allowed 44th vs 33rd
Looking at common opponents, Arkansas and Auburn have coincidentally both played Georgia already this year. While Auburn lost 6-27 last week (as discussed), Arkansas lost similarly 10-37 the week before. Crunch the numbers on that math whizzes, and you have only a 6-point difference.
Note: Am I the only person that didn’t know Feleipe Franks is the quarterback at Arkansas? I don’t know what changed between last year and this year (evidently breaking his ankle in half) but he put together some solid numbers last week and let’s keep our fingers crossed he can do it again this week.
4. Clemson -14 (vs. Miami)
We’re back on the Dabo Train. Clemson has won all October ACC matchups by at least 34 the past two years. At some point, 2020 Clemson has to start looking more like 2019 Clemson.
5. Alabama vs. Mississippi Under 70.5
Looking ahead at the forecast for Saturday in Oxford, I see 100% chance of rain with 23 mph winds. Although both these teams have been able to put up some points, this would make you think we will see more running plays and less stuff through the air. (Hopefully some turnovers and missed field goals as well?) Definitely could see them scoring in the 60’s but I see this more in the 40’s to 20’s as opposed to 50’s to 30’s range.
6. BYU -34.5 (vs. UTSA)
This week’s guest pick is courtesy of my friend, Mattress Matt:
“BYU has now outscored their three opponents by a combined margin of 148-24. QB Zach Wilson went 24 of 26 for 325 yards and 5 TDs which is half as many wives he has locked down. BYU will outscore their opponents every time with this guy leading things with or without coffee. Regardless of the offensive firepower as the saying goes defense wins championships. The sober bastards on the D-line are not bulking up with beer guts and late night pizza. These fellas are full of the Holy Spirit and only allowing 2.4 yards per rush and 8 points a game. Hot take BYU is the UCF of 2020.” *Editor’s Note: Wondering if he meant UCF of 2017. Also – Jesus H I feel like I have no choice but to take this pick based on that highly inappropriate DD*
Yes, Mattress Matt – BYU is going to win by 5 TD’s. And hotter take: BYU is better than UCF.
It’s happening. https://t.co/ZjomHCrYCo pic.twitter.com/KOyikaZ0l4
— BYU (@BYU) September 21, 2017
Long Shot Moneyline of the Week:
Tennessee +385 (vs. Georgia)
Our college LSML picks are 0-2 and with so many upsets in college football this year, we need to get on the board here desperately.
Let me start off by saying I hate this pick. Everything in the world tells me this pick has no chance. But from a guy that has been (freezing) ice cold the past two weeks in college football, maybe that is a good thing. I previously discussed my dislike for Tennessee football, the pushover coach, and the Tik Tok-loving QB. But unfortunately, the Pushover and co. are better than I previously thought. And something tells me a JUCO 5-11 QB who couldn’t win the job out of camp is due to have a bad game at some point for the ‘Dogs.
It sounds crazy, but let’s not forget that the Vols have won eight games in a row. And also, the last three ranked Vols teams to play in Athens have come away with a victory. We all remember Georgia losing at home to South Carolina last year right? Guess what weekend that was. I think if Tennessee can follow the classic underdog formula of just hanging around until the fourth quarter, I can see the Vols pulling off the late upset.
And there you have it for Week 5. Let’s hope introducing more data can help us right the ship. Just remember something my dad always told me: “Rome wasn’t built in a day.”
Besides, after last week, what is there to say other than we are DUE!!!