Congratulations ladies, gentlemen, and them/they’s – it is officially fall, football, and free money season! Jake and I had previously discussed a football picks pod, but given some professional obligations, we had to throw this on the back burner for the time being. Sorry, I know you were all dying for another middle-aged caucasian male podcast discussing sports gambling. In the meantime, call me Jason Derulo because I am riding this beyotch solo.
As a kid, I used to marvel at some rando middle-aged guy in the Warren Times Observer making football picks every weekend. I believe he called himself the Soothsayer or something along those lines. It’s hard to remember if he was any good or not, but I do remember him referring to himself in the third person and he had a picture of himself with a wizard hat on so he at least sounds like a winner (pun and sarcasm intended). I can promise you I will avoid the third person talk but no promises on me rocking a wizard hat at some point. (Grown man.)
Instead of me rolling through a boatload of college/NFL football games and giving you predictions about stuff I know nothing about (see Talkin’ Trash College Football Bowl Games Podcast), I will just stick to a six-pack of games that I DO (think I) know something about. Consider yourselves lucky as I am going to provide you with six freebies (aka spreads and over/unders) that will make you some ea$y money.
Let’s cut to the chase.
This week’s WINNERS:
1. Oklahoma -42 (vs. Missouri State)
In the Longest Yard when Paul Crewe references a week 1 cream puff opponent “like an Appalachian State or some slack Division II team” as a warm-up, he really meant Missouri State. They were 9th in the Missouri Valley Conference last year which I thought was only a basketball conference until right this second. *Editors Note: No one knew the Missouri Valley Conference was the name of a conference until right this second. That’s a fact.*
In their last game last year, Indiana State hung 51 on them. One could assume Spencer Ratliff may struggle given this is his OU QB debut. But assuming Missouri states scores no more than 7-10 points and considering the 2018 and 2019 season openers (Jalen Hurts 49 in 2019 debut against far superior competition and Kyler Murray 63 in 2018 debut), pencil this one in as ea$y money.
Confidence Meter: 8/10
2. Clemson -33.5 (vs Wake Forest)
Speaking of middle aged white male football podcasts, I listened to the Cover 3 Podcast for the first and last time of my life this morning. However, they were all over this one and I couldn’t agree more. All you need to know is Clemson covers every week except for once last year I believe. I don’t know if Dabo is betting on the spread himself or what but trust me here, they may be up 5 td’s at the half. And if it takes a late field goal to cover, in Dabo We Trust.
Confidence Meter: 9/10
3. Iowa State vs Louisiana-Lafayette Over 55.5 points
I hate betting over/unders in general because I feel like they are almost always a shot in the dark, but I could not lay off this one. First off, I want to know how on earth this game happened. What genius at Iowa State was like “hey, let’s see what the effing Rajin Cajuns are up to that weekend?” This is essentially a December 21st bowl game coming at us early. That’s right, we are getting the Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl in September!
I like both of these offenses to score some serious points. The Rajin Cajuns scored at least 27 points in 13/14 games last year and Brock Purdy is back for his eighth year at Iowa State so I have a feeling this is the year he puts it all together. I did stumble across some talks of foul weather tomorrow in Ames, Iowa but the forecast doesn’t have any rain pencilled in until 4PM with a noon kick. I am already picturing the irony of the rain starting to fall while the betting app loads in our winnings for this game.
Confidence meter: 6/10
4. Titans -2.5 (vs Broncos)
I have the benefit of listening to Denver sports radio every morning so consider me an expert here. Denver’s offense was pathetic last year but for some reason the city (and bookies evidently) have decided they are a playoff threat this year because they added a running back (even though they already had one), drafted two rookie wide receivers (who almost inevitably always struggle their first year), and their fratty QB is a year older.
Additionally, let’s do a quick check-in on Denver #1 playmaker Cortland Sutton’s status. Pat Shurmur at his press conference today: “Let’s say Courtland doesn’t make it for whatever reason, then the whole group has to share the load.” Two immediate thoughts to this 1. I cannot believe this man was a head coach of an NFL team (TWICE!) and 2. That does not sound like a quote from a coach who is anticipating their best WR playing. What does all this mean for us? Denver’s offense will likely struggle. Like really struggle.
And let’s not forget the Titans are LEGIT – they went to the AFC championship game last year after beating the Patriots and Ravens on the road. You would have to think no fans and subsequently no home field advantage hurts the Broncos as well.
Bottom line: I do not get this spread. I think Titans win by double digits if anyone has the cajones to take an alternate line.
Confidence meter: 10/10
5. Eagles -5.5 (vs. Washington Football Team)
A matchup of the defending NFC East champ vs the NFC East chump. Why does this feel like someone is begging me to take this just so I can get my heart broken? Someone decided this was going to be less than a touchdown game? Plain and simple, Washington is going to suck. I don’t know if any of you have watched Washington QB Dwayne Haskins before but he is not good. The team cut their HOF running back one week before the season started. And besides “Scary” Terry McLaurin, their other weapons include Steven Sims, Jr, Dontrelle Inman, and Logan Thomas. I am not making this up. Those people I just mentioned are their listed starters. People, they are not going to lose to the Eagles by less than 6 points.
Confidence meter: 7/10
6. Austin Peay +28.5 (vs. Pittsburgh)
My Pitt buddy just drunk texted me at midnight on a Friday night “I think I’d take Austin peay at +28.5” not knowing I am whipping this little write-up as we speak. I think they call that destiny. Let’s roll with it.
Confidence meter: 3/10
So that’s our six pack of locks for Week 1! Do not forget to @ me when you win (and lose). The plan is to keep track of my weekly records and let’s all say an extra Hail May that I end up above .500.
Enjoy the free money! Most importantly, enjoy the first full weekend of football!