Let’s start with this: I don’t know how much money Patrick Mahomes is going to make on a yearly basis. I don’t pretend to understand how an NFL contract works and you shouldn’t either. I’m sure it comes down to like 7 finance douches in a room together and they throw out so many bullshit incentives and disclaimers that by the time the player and owner sign the paper everyone in that room is convinced they just pulled off a robbery. But in reality nobody really remembers all the nuances that got included in the contract. Quite frankly these agents are probably more concerned with using their cut to buy themselves a new watch which they will later use to impress (con) the next young talent into signing with them. Dickhead A will tell you it’s $600mil for 8 years and Dickhead B will tell you it’s $200mil for 4 years “with an opt out, no trade, all guaranteed, and future part ownership.”

For this instance let’s assume, conservatively, that Mahomes will make 40 million a year for the next ten years. Schefty is throwing around $500mil figures so I think $40mil/yr is fair. Yesterday, before I knew Patrick Mahomes was about to sign a contract, I could have told you that KC would pay him too much money. “That’s just what you have to do nowadays!” That’s the sort of shit you’ll hear on ESPN from an NFL analyst making $1000/hr who has failed to realize that the Patriots have won for the past 20 years by refusing to give out stupid contracts like these. They have seven running backs and receivers you’ve never heard of, but you better let Odell secure the BAG if you want to win Cleveland! Feed Zeke that cereal, Jerry!!

Call it a hot take, but I feel like committing one-fifth of the team salary until 2030 to the guy with 30 games under his belt might not work out great in the long-run. Call it a hotter take, but something tells me he isn’t going to throw for 50,000 yards and 500 tds over the next ten years. I’m not an NFL scout, I’m just using some common sense here. I think I had somewhere around a 3.9 GPA heading into my sophomore year in college. At some point water found it’s level and I did NOT in fact earn my degree with a 3.9 GPA.

But what if he did throw for 50,000 more yards and 500 more TDs? Would that make it worth it? Gun to my head, I’d say no. What is it about what watching Patrick Mahomes play for the Kansas City C-Words that makes you think Spencer Rattler couldn’t step in there tomorrow and throw for 4000 and 40 this upcoming season? It’s almost as if Andy Reid knows what he’s doing after nearly 20 winning seasons?? I’ll post two Pro Football Reference stat lines below. One of those is Alex Smith’s last season in Kansas City and the other is Patrick Mahomes last season. Do your best to figure out which one of those guys makes $10mil/yr more than Aaron Rodgers and which one will be coaching middle school kids by 2022.