Big Ten Conference – founded 1896
Teams: 14
Divisions: 2 (East/West for one last year)
Who’s in/Who’s out in 2023:
No changes for 2023, USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington to join next year (2024)
Reigning Champ:
Michigan (two-time)
Schedule features:
9 conference games plus 3 non-conference games
Conference Championship:
East/West champion meet in Indianapolis, IN
Biggest stadium:
Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, Michigan with a stadium capacity of 107,601
Things to Consider:
Is this finally the year the Big Ten wins their first national championship since 2014?
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
- Win total: O/U 10.5
- Odds to win conference championship: +175
- Head coach: Ryan Day
- 2022 record: 11-2 (6-6-1)
- Bowl game result: Defeated by Georgia 41-42 in Peach Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 2
- 2022 total defense: 24
Offense: At QB, we have the ginger bros in to replace CJ Stroud. These guys look wildly similar. Kyle McCord’s resume every single time – 3 years in the system AND went to high school with MH Jr in Philly. Well, we got to see Rob Bolden who played with Allen Robinson in high school and was not good at all. Probably have said this for every new QB but least scared I have been of an OSU QB in a while. Should I be worried? Probably. They have two (somehow underrated) excellent backs and obviously the best WR room in the country, losing 3 OL (including two All-American tackles)
Defense: returning almost entire DL, 3 of top 4 tacklers overall return, losing majority of secondary but have transfers coming in
Schedule notes: at Notre Dame 9/23, host Penn State 10/21, at Wisconsin 10/28, at Michigan 11/25
Other notes: Devin Brown wears #33
Takeaways: The Buckeyes are officially the hunters after getting knocked off by Michigan two years in a row. Chances of them losing only once seems pretty high but I have them losing twice because I am obviously a Nittany Lion homer. I will not be placing any money on this, however.
2. Michigan Wolverines
- Win total: O/U 10.5
- Odds to win conference championship: +180
- Head coach: Jim Harbaugh
- 2022 record: 13-1 (8-5-1)
- Bowl game result: Defeated by TCU 45-51 in Fiesta Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 6
- 2022 total defense: 7
Offense: QB, star RBs back, lose top WR and TE, 5 OL returning with experience and 7 expected to be drafted
Defense: lost 3 DL to NFL, experience returning at LB and secondary
Schedule notes: at Michigan State 10/21, at Penn State 11/11, host Ohio State 11/25
Takeaways: Lean over here. I cannot imagine them getting beat by both Penn State and Ohio State and losing to anyone else on this schedule would be absolute insanity. I would never bet on Michigan to win the national title but I think this is the year Harbaugh can do it.
3. Penn State Nittany Lions
- Win total: O/U 9.5
- Odds to win conference championship: +600
- Head coach: James Franklin
- 2022 record: 11-2 (9-3-1)
- Bowl game result: Defeated Utah 35-21 in Rose Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 20
- 2022 total defense: 10
Offense: Drew Allar into replace Sean Clifford, yet another two-headed RB monster, replacing 3 of top 4 receiving targets from last year, OL returns everyone but center
Defense: some projected star power on defense, small up front but strong D ends and experience in secondary
Schedule notes: host WVU 9/2, host Iowa 9/23, at OSU 10/21, at MD 11/4, host Mich 11/11
Takeaways: Beat Iowa and split Michigan/Ohio State and I think this season is a success regardless. I sure wish I could move the noon kickoff vs Michigan because that is not going to help Penn State’s cause. Please god almighty father of heaven of earth, do not allow a repeat of last year’s utter domination in the trenches in that game. I will be attending the game in Columbus so if I have to pick one for them to win, I will pick that one by default. This is the most excited I have been since 2017 and I cannot wait to get my heartbroken yet again.
4. Wisconsin Badgers
- Win total: O/U 8.5
- Odds to win conference championship: +900
- Head coach: Luke Fickell
- 2022 record: 7-6 (6-7)
- Bowl game result: Defeated Oklahoma State 24-17 in Guaranteed Rate Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 77
- 2022 total defense: 17
Offense: UNC’s OC in to run up tempo offense, Tanner Mordecai (3500 yards, 33 TDs at SMU last year) expected to start, kept top two WRs with handful more coming through portal, Craelon Allen back, 4 starting OL returning
Defense: new defensive front under Mike Tressel (Jim’s nephew), lost 3 of 4 in secondary
Schedule notes: at Wash St 9/9, host Iowa 10/14, host OSU 10/28, at Minn 11/25
Takeaways: Remember, they lost to Washington State last year in Madison so I will be interested to see how these changes stack up in a Week 2 rematch. This should give us a better idea of what we’re working with here in a particular tough environment on the road. In all honesty, they could be favored in every game except for OSU and could legitimately win 10 games. The Badgers in fact have a legit chance for a special season but I am sitting out the win total.
5. Iowa Hawkeyes
- Win total: O/U 8.5
- Odds to win conference championship: +1200
- Head coach: Kirk Ferentz
- 2022 record: 8-5 (8-5)
- Bowl game result: Defeated Kentucky 21-0 in Music City Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 123
- 2022 total defense: 2
Offense: Cade McNamara in to run the offense with Erick All (both from Michigan), WR’s Kaleb Brown (Ohio St) and Seth Anderson (Charleston Southern – notably son of Flipper Anderson), RB Kaleb Johnson is excellent, majority of offensive line returns, multiple good tight ends
Defense: Ferentz claims deepest defensive line he has ever had, secondary stacked again as well – another white corner you are going to be hearing more about than you would like this year is Cooper DeJean, overall 10 of 16 guys with 200+ snaps return
Schedule notes: at Iowa State 9/9, at Penn State 9/23, at Wisconsin 10/14, at Nebraska 11/24
Other notes: The OC needs the team to average 25 PPG to get an incentive part of his contract. Kirk Ferentz has zero solo Big Ten.
Takeaways: I do not think I like Iowans. I do think it is only a matter of time before Kirk Ferentz gets canceled for something. As for football, I do like the additions on offense. Let’s face it, with an average offense last year, this team could have been remarkably good. And I will take Iowa’s continuity over Wisconsin’s revamp this year – so give me Iowa to beat Wisconsin in Madison. I will also lean over for Iowa wins – I think 9-3 is beyond reasonable (honestly worst case) with a schedule that avoids OSU and Michigan.
6. Minnesota Golden Gophers
- Win total: O/U 7
- Odds to win conference championship: +4000
- Head coach: P.J. Fleck
- 2022 record: 9-4 (7-6)
- Bowl game result: Defeated Syracuse 28-20 in Pinstripe Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 67
- 2022 total defense: 4
Offense: Athan Kaliakmanis replacing Tanner Morgan (whose senior year went like I expected Sean Clifford’s to go), lose top two rushers but 2-time all-MAC Western Mich RB coming in, Brevyn Spann-Ford 6’7’’ 270 lbs will play in the NFL, multiple other transfers as well as Chris Autman-Bell returning at WR, OL will have 4 new starters but all upperclassmen
Defense: 7 of 12 defenders with 300+ snaps return, five transfer DBs comin in, defensive line should be deep enough to succeed, questions at linebacker
Other notes: Athan K is looking to be first Minn QB drafted since 1960
Schedule notes: host Nebraska 8/31, at UNC 9/16, host Michigan 10/7, at Iowa 10/21, at Ohio State 11/18, host Wisconsin 11/25
Takeaways: I cannot believe Minnesota won 9 games last year. It is also hard to believe they have won 8 regular season games in 3 of the past 4 years. I think this is the year Minnesota fans think they finally break through but I think they come up just a bit short yet again.
7. Illinois Fighting Illini
- Win total: O/U 6.5
- Odds to win conference championship: +9500
- Head coach: Brett Bielema
- 2022 record: 8-5 (8-5)
- Bowl game result: Defeated by Miss State in ReliaQuest Bowl 10-19
- 2022 total offense: 95
- 2022 total defense: 1
Offense: Luke Altmyer in at QB (Ole Miss), losing Chase Brown and two all-conference lineman, WR Isaiah Williams returns (82 catches last year)
Defense: losing the DC as well as 1st, 2nd and 3rd round defenders (including Chase Brown’s identical twin brother Sydney), DT Jer’Zahn Newton could be the next elite defender and leads excellent d-line
Schedule notes: host Penn State 9/16, host Wisconsin 10/21, at Minn 11/4, at Iowa 11/18
Takeaways: I do not have this team as a major player this year, but this team could be tricky at times and suspect they could pull off a major upset in late October/early November to shake up the west.
8. Nebraska Cornhuskers
- Win total: O/U 6.5
- Odds to win conference championship: +7500
- Head coach: Matt Rhule
- 2022 record: 4-8 (5-7)
- Bowl game result: DNQ
- 2022 total offense: 102
- 2022 total defense: 77
Offense: Jeff Sims (6’4’’ QB from Georgia Tech) in to run the offense, Andy Staples seems weirdly obsessed with this guy but he has a career 57% completion percentage and I think he is closer to Graham Mertz than Caleb Williams, multiple WR transfers and TE Arik Gilbert awaiting to hear if he can play with a waiver (Nebraska is his 4th team – 10th overall prospect in class of 2020)
Defense: two former SEC defenders in, experience in secondary returning
Schedule notes: at Minnesota 8/31, host Michigan 9/30, at Wisconsin 11/18, host Iowa 11/24
Takeaways: Six losing seasons in seven years at Nebraska which is wild. Matt Rhule is a wizard with turning programs around so will be interesting to see what he can do here. I would lean under 6.5 I think but if they can get through their non-conference undefeated (at Colorado, host Northern Illinois, host LA Tech), it is possible they could have a winning season. They draw Maryland and both Michigans from the east which could be worse but have to think they are underdogs in all three of these games.
9. Maryland Terrapins
- Win total: O/U 7.5
- Odds to win conference championship: +10000
- Head coach: Mike Locksley
- 2022 record: 8-5 (7-6)
- Bowl game result: Defeated NC State 16-12 in
- 2022 total offense: 66
- 2022 total defense: 42
Offense: Taulia Tagovailoa returns, losing 4 of top 7 receivers but have two transfers coming in, only 1 of top 7 lineman return
Defense: 0 of top 6 defensive lineman return, have a transfer from St. Francis coming in, good depth at LB, top two safeties return including one who is on the lacrosse team as well
Schedule notes: at OSU 10/7, host PSU 11/4, host Michigan 11/18
Takeaways: Everytime I try to take Maryland seriously, I watch them lay an egg like they did in Beaver Stadium last year. Let’s not forget they almost beat Michigan last year though in the Big House. Things are trending up here under Mike Locksley and I would love for someone (seriously anyone) to develop into a rival with Penn State and seriously why not Maryland? That being said, the offensive line turnover is very concerning and don’t let people talk you into Maryland being a genuine sleeper.
10. Purdue Boilermakers
- Win total: O/U 5
- Odds to win conference championship: +12500
- Head coach: Ryan Walters (Illinois’ DC last year)
- 2022 record: 8-6 (5-9)
- Bowl game result: Defeated by LSU 7-63 in Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 75
- 2022 total defense: 76
Offense: run-based Air Raid with Graham Harrell, Hudson Card impressed this summer, inexperienced receiving options after losing Charlie Jones and Payne Durham (only two options with >300 yards during a season including transfers), major question marks on OL between players transferring out and best lineman still recovering from injury at end of last year
Defense: Illinois D was #1 in PPG last year under Walters – however losing 7 of 11 starers from last year, solid edge rushers, multiple transfers in the secondary to replace losing top 5 corners
Schedule notes: host Fresno State 9/2, host Wisconsin 9/22, at Iowa 10/7, host OSU 10/14, at Michigan 11/4
Takeaways: Leaning under 5 wins here. The combination between Walters’ defensive expertise and Harrell’s offensive expertise sounds excellent in theory but I would think this could take some time – particularly with no one really to catch passes and so many fresh new faces on defense.
11. Michigan State Spartans
- Win total: O/U 5
- Odds to win conference championship: +15000
- Head coach: Mel Tucker
- 2022 record: 5-7 (3-6-3)
- Bowl game result: DNQ
- 2022 total offense: 92
- 2022 total defense: 74
Offense: Payton Thorne (Auburn) and Keon Coleman (Florida State) transferred out, Noah Kim likely to be the starter at QB, RB returns along with 4 starting offensive lineman, questions at WR
Defense: losing majority of secondary, LB core with returning experience,
Schedule notes: host Washington 9/16, at Iowa 9/30, host Michigan 10/21, at OSU 11/11, host PSU 11/24 (11/24)
Takeaways: Every beat writer on the Summer School podcasts is outrageously optimistic and tends to be biased in what they expect their respective schools can accomplish while Michigan State’s sounded quite pessimistic about the offense thriving and the secondary being fixed. I would expect much of the same this upcoming year as last year. I will guess 6-6 here and lean over.
12. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
- Win total: O/U 3
- Odds to win conference championship: +20000
- Head coach: Greg Schiano
- 2022 record: 4-8 (5-6-1)
- Bowl game result: DNQ
- 2022 total offense: 124
- 2022 total defense: 95
Offense: Kirk Ciarrocca new OC, Gavin Wimsatt (former 4 star) will start (sophomore year, skipped senior year of high school), return entire backfield, lost top 3 receivers – Div II guy will be top receiver, offensive line should be better but not much depth
Defense: star pass rusher back from ACL tear in addition to strong returning cast in front 7, one of top Big Ten corners back as well as two starters from MAC
Schedule notes: host VA Tech 9/16, at Indiana 10/21, at PSU 11/18
Takeaways: I think Greg can turn things around at some point and make this program Minnesota-like when division-less, but I do not expect this year to be the first chapter of the turnaround story.
13. Northwestern Wildcats
- Win total: O/U 2.5
- Odds to win conference championship: +42000
- Head coach: David Braun
- 2022 record: 1-11 (5-7)
- Bowl game result: DNQ
- 2022 total offense: 128
- 2022 total defense: 81
Offense: Ben Bryant (Cincinatt x 2) battling incumbent Ryan Hilinski for QB job, RB Evan Hull majority of offense last year now in NFL, OL with serious depth issues as they are losing six of top 7 lineman, losing top 3 receivers as well.
Defense: d-line hit hardest between transfers and graduates, entire linebacking corps back – mike LB runs a cowboy collar
Schedule notes: at Rutgers 9/3, host Penn State 9/30, vs Iowa 11/4 (Wrigley Field), at Wisconsin 11/11
Takeaways: This team could be atrocious given the circumstances. Losing their best players on offense and defense does not help either. I think Ben Bryant is the most boring quarterback in the world but he may help make things competitive at times. Jimmies and Joes, they probably beat UTEP and Howard but it is hard to picture them winning any other games.
14. Indiana Hoosiers
- Win total: O/U 3.5
- Odds to win conference championship: +50000
- Head coach: Tom Allen
- 2022 record: 4-8 (4-8)
- Bowl game result: DNQ
- 2022 total offense: 100
- 2022 total defense: 120
Offense: no available quarterbacks with a start – redshirt freshman Tayven Jackson likely to be the starter, multiple RBs with experience, leading receiver back off ACL tear, offense line will likely struggle again
Defense: leading tackler returns, Dasan McCullough transferred to Oklahoma, transfers expected to start at corner, d-tackle, linebacker
Schedule notes: host Rutgers 10/21, at PSU 10/28, host Wisconsin 11/4, at Illinois 11/11
Takeaways: Indiana has won two Big 10 conference games in the past two years. While we are on that note, I would like a refund of my money for Indiana beating Illinois last year – that shit made no sense. I have to take the under here at plus odds as far as win total goes. I am seeing Akron and Indiana State as must wins and Rutgers and at Purdue as toss-ups. This is the worst team Tom Allen has had and I think this is the end of the line for him at Bloomington. Expect him to pop up again in a few years at an FCS school.
Big Ten Takeaways:
Conference prediction: Michigan over Iowa
Plays: Iowa over 8.5 wins +104, Iowa to win B1G West +240, Indiana under 3.5 wins
Leans: Mich State over 5.5, Mich over 10.5
Conference preview disclaimer:
Most of my information was obtained from Bill Connelly’s conference previews on ESPN and the Cover 3 Podcast’s Summer School hosted by Bud Elliott. Thanks to them for saving me an abundance of time in accumulating information on each team. This is all for fun and pure enjoyment so apologies in advance for any incorrect information including misspellings in names, changes in odds, or players listed on the wrong team as the revolving door on the transfer portal never stops. Lastly, sorry if any bias is present in any of my takes, but if it seems like I hate one team more than another, it is probably because I hate one team more than another.