American Athletic Conference – founded July 2013
Teams: 14 (no divisions)
Who’s in/Who’s out in 2023:
Out: Houston, Cincinnati, UCF (left for Big 12)
In: University of Alabama-Birmingham, Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Rice, and University of Texas at San Antonio
Schedule features:
9 conference games plus 3 non-conference games
Conference Championship:
Top two teams meet at top seed’s home stadium
Biggest stadium:
Lincoln Financial Field Philadelphia, PA with a capacity of 69,796
1. Tulane Green Wave
- Win total: O/U 9
- Odds to win conference championship: +270
- Head coach: Willie Fritz
- 2022 record: 12-2 (12-2 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Defeated USC 46-45 in Cotton Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 19
- 2022 total defense: 32
Offense: Michael Pratt is back to run the offense along with top slot receiver, lost RB and other top 2 receivers, two all-conference lineman returning
Defense: most of D-line back and top corner return
Schedule notes: host Ole Miss 9/9, at Memphis 10/13, host UTSA 11/24 or 11/25
Takeaways: UTSA game over Thanksgiving could be a formality in that the next weekend they could be playing for all the marbles. I think this team is great again but it would be hard to believe they can be as good as last year again after losing so many key players. Will be sitting out this total but I will be keeping an eye out on the Green Wave.
2. Memphis Tigers
- Win total: O/U 8.5
- Odds to win conference championship:+700
- Head coach: Ryan Silverfield
- 2022 record: 7-6 (7-6 ATS) *lost all four one-score games
- Bowl game result: Defeated Utah State 38-10 in AutoZone Liberty Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 22
- 2022 total defense: 60
Offense: Seth Henigan back (3600 yards last year) with 2 of 3 leading rushers and 3 starting linemen, but lost top 5 wide receivers, ODU transfer RB coming in also had 37 grabs last year
Defense: D-line should be strong between returning starters and a OU and Texas A&M transfer, replacing 4 of 6 top guys in secondary
Schedule notes: at Missouri 9/23, host Boise State 9/30, host Tulane 10/13 (off bye week)
Takeaways: I feel like I haven’t watched Memphis play football since the 2020 Cotton Bowl. This is the team that could sneak into the championship game given all the shitty conference opponents with the exception of at Tulane 10/13. Winning 9 games certainly seems possible but pretty risky prediction with such a question mark at the skill positions.
3. Southern Methodist University Mustangs
- Win total: O/U 8.5
- Odds to win conference championship: +380
- Head coach: Rhett Lashlee
- 2022 record: 7-6 (5-8 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Defeated by BYU 23-24 New Mexico Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 12
- 2022 total defense: 119
Offense: replacing Tanner Mordecai (Wisconsin), and top rerceiver, Preston Stone to be QB
Defense: Four Miami U and three Liberty transfers in
Schedule notes: at Oklahoma 9/9, at TCU 9/23, at Memphis 11/18 (do not play Tulane or UTSA)
Takeaways: Avoiding UTSA and Tulane should help SMU make a run at the championship game but with trips to OU and TCU on the docket and the thought of them only being able to lose one conference game seems to risky for me to play over 8.5 wins. Their defense has sucked for over a decade but if they can pick up where they left off on offense, this should be a great over team. And a serious contender to make the championship game.
4. Florida Atlantic Owls
- Win total: O/U 7.5
- Odds to win conference championship: +900
- Head coach: Tom Herman
- 2022 record: 5-7 (6-6 ATS)
- Bowl game result: DNQ
- 2022 total offense: 56
- 2022 total defense: 64
Offense: QB N’Kosi Perry graduated (now in CFL), QB battle is between transfers Casey Thompson (Texas, Nebraska), Daniel Richardson (CMU), and Michael Johnson, Jr (PSU), 1000-yard rusher returns, 3 of 4 WRs, 3 lineman
Defense: 18 of 19 players return with 250+ snaps last year
Schedule notes: at Clemson 9/16, at Illinois 9/23, Host Tulane 11/18
Takeaways: Major sleeper in the AAC, Herman improved the previous season’s win total by 5 at Houston and 2 at Texas in his first season, bringing in Casey Thompson to run the offense in May was a huge get along with some returning firepower on O to pair with an above average D returning literally just about everyone, even with Clemson, Illinois, and Tulane on the schedule, 7.5 wins does seem low. Would lean over 7.5 wins.
5. University of Texas at San Antonio Roadrunners
- Win total: O/U 7.5
- Odds to win conference championship: +450
- Head coach: Jeff Traylor
- 2022 record: 11-3 (7-7 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Lost to Troy 12-18 in the Duluth Trading Cure Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 14
- 2022 total defense: 59
Offense: OC left for Oregon, Frank Harris back, Zahkari Franklin to Ole Miss but two other WRs back, 4 one-time all conference lineman back
Defense: Lose two studs in secondary but return one top corner
Schedule notes: at Houston 9/2, at Tennessee 9/23, at Tulane 11/24 or 11/25
Takeaways: Coming off an 11-win season, the Roadrunners are fighting up a weight class this year. They do play 8 of 12 games in Texas and the opener at Houston should give us a better idea of the gap between CUSA (UTSA 2-time defending champ) and the AAC (Houston 5-3 last year and 8-0 in 2021 in the AAC prior to leaving for Big 12), only 1 unwinnable game on this schedule (week 3 at TENN), suspect they have 8 or 9 wins by the time they have to play at Tulane to wrap up the season. Strong lean over 7.5 wins.
6. North Texas Mean Green
- Win total: O/U 6.5
- Odds to win conference championship: +2500
- Head coach: Eric Morris (1st year)
- 2022 record: 7-7 (8-6 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Defeated by Boise State 35-32 in Frisco Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 28
- 2022 total defense: 110
Offense: Travia: 28 y/o Austin Aune graduated, transfers from UNC and ULM battling for QB job, return 3 guys who ran for 600+ yards, top two receivers, two all-conference guards
Defense: only a few notable players
Schedule notes: Host Cal 9/2, at Tulane 10/21, host UTSA 11/4
Takeaways: Morris is a former Texas Tech WR and Mike Leach protege, could be fun to watch and should be a good over team pending how the QB comp shakes out and just how pathetic the defense ends up, suspect one highly touted recruit Jace Ruder starts at QB
7. Navy Midshipmen
- Win total: O/U 6
- Odds to win conference championship: +4200
- Head coach: Brian Newberry
- 2022 record: 4-8 (7-5 ATS)
- Bowl game result: DNQ
- 2022 total offense: 105
- 2022 total defense: 51
Offense: will be a running a more modernized option this year, returning two senior QBs (only one of which who really throws) and two junior fullbacks to carry the load
Defense: Nickelback with 19 TFLs (?) gone but returning some playmakers from last years nearly top 50 defense
Schedule notes: vs Notre Dame 8/26 (Dublin, Ireland), host Air Force 10/21, host Army 12/9
Takeaways: The Midshipmen we had grown to love over the past decade or so have officially sunk, and Brian Newberry was brought in to right the ship (both of those were too easy). I seem to be leaning under on all Academy teams this year but again, not a terrorist, and I would find it nearly impossible to root against Navy every week. Week 1 against Notre Dame should give us a glimpse of whether this offense can take a step forward from last year’s weak showing.
8. University of Alabama Birmingham Blazers
- Win total: O/U 4.5
- Odds to win conference championship:+4500
- Head coach: Trent Dilfer
- 2022 record: 7-6 (4-9 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Defeated Miami (OH) 24-20
- 2022 total offense: 53
- 2022 total defense: 43
Offense: lost 9 starters on offense including QB, 1700 yard rusher, and all 5 lineman
Defense: DC was the DC for Trent’s high school team, losing 10 of 16 defenders with 300+ snaps
Schedule notes: At Georgia Southern 9/9, at Georgia 9/23, at Tulane 9/30
Takeaways: This is Jeff Saturday 2.0. Host NC A&T to start which certainly sounds winnable, but then play non-conference schedule against two Sun Belt teams where they will likely be underdogs (GA Southern and the Ragin Cajuns) and then play at Georgia prior to conference play which starts off at Tulane. Best case they are 2-3 seeking 3 more wins against conference opponents and only 3 of these (USF, Temple, Navy) seem like coin flips. I think 5 wins would take a small miracle for Dilfer in year 1 and I’m willing to take my chances of getting Jeff Saturdayed again.
9. Temple Owls
- Win total: O/U 5.5
- Odds to win conference championship: +4500
- Head coach: Stan Drayton
- 2022 record: 3-9 (8-4 ATS!)
- Bowl game result: DNQ
- 2022 total offense: 106
- 2022 total defense: 96
Offense: EJ Warner returns at QB for sophomore season
Defense: Layton Jordan (18.5 TFL) returns, 10 of 15 guys with 300+ snaps return
Schedule notes: Host Akron 9/2, At Rutgers 9/9, host Miami U 9/23
Takeaways: If someone offered me $1 million to pick Stan Drayton out of a lineup of 3 people, I admittedly could not do it. I think 6 wins is best case here for them so I would probably lean under here. And speaking of under, this could be a good under team if their defense improves but offense continues to struggle.
10. East Carolina Pirates
- Win total: O/U 5.5
- Odds to win conference championship: +3500
- Head coach: Mike Houston
- 2022 record: 8-5 (8-5 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Defeated Coastal Carolina 53-29 in Birmingham Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 36
- 2022 total defense: 73
Offense: 3700 yard passer, 1400 yard rusher, two 1000 yard receivers gone, Mason Garcia will be new QB (4th year in program)
Defense: return only 7 of 18 defenders with 200+ snaps, three UNC transfers coming in on D
Schedule notes: open at Michigan 9/2, at UTSA 10/28, host Tulane 11/4
Takeaways: For the first time in my life, I tried to get my hands on some actual film of a quarterback to analyze. With limited accessibility (and despite his size of 6’5’’ 240 lbs), I came away overall impressed with his athleticism which was, however, overshadowed by a notable lack of accuracy and an obvious interest in bailing out of the pocket as fast as possible. I would lean strongly under 5.5 wins.I see Gardner-Webb as a win with Marshall, Rice, Charlotte, Navy, and Tulsa as toss-ups. I would be surprised if they win any of the other games. I think anything more than 5 wins would be surprising.
11. Rice Owls
- Win total: O/U 4.5
- Odds to win conference championship: +7500
- Head coach: Mike Bloomgren
- 2022 record: 5-8 (7-6 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Lost so Southern Miss 38-24
- 2022 total offense: 84
- 2022 total defense: 121
Offense: JT Daniels on school 4, Luke McCaffrey is back at WR as well as Bradley Rozner who had double digit TD grabs last year and nearly 20 YPC
Defense: solid LB core returning but as we know – this was not a strong defense last year
Schedule notes: At Texas 9/2, at Texas 9/9, host UCONN 10/7
Takeaways: Suspect Rice could struggle to win games again this year. More importantly, however, this could be shaping up to be another fun year of Rice overs.
12. South Florida Bulls
- Win total: O/U 4.5
Odds to win conference championship: +5000
Head coach: Alex Golesh
2022 record: 1-11 (5-7 ATS)
Bowl game result: DNQ
2022 total offense: 68
2022 total defense: 130
Offense: Gerry Bohannon is back, losing 4 lineman and starting RB
Defense: Florida and Texas transfers in to help out nation’s second worst D
Schedule notes: at WKU 9/2, Host Alabama 9/16, at UCONN 10/21
Takeaways: Coming off a 1-11 season, USF brings in Alex Golesh – a Josh Heupel disciple (nice ring to it) – but I am not about to pretend this offense is going to be dynamic right off the bat. And unfortunately their defense has not been top 100 since 2019. Lean under 4.5 here.
13. University of North Carolina at Charlotte 49ers
- Win total: O/U 3
- Odds to win conference championship: 20000
- Head coach: Biff Poggi
- 2022 record: 3-9 (4-7-1 ATS)
- Bowl game result: DNQ
- 2022 total offense: 91
- 2022 total defense: 129
Notes: Poggi is a former Jim Harbaugh assistant and hedge fund manager.
Offense: new o-line all transfers, also a guy we played with in the scramble’s nephew is there at wideout after transferring from CU
Defense: brought two Michigan edge rushers with him
Schedule notes: at Maryland 9/9, at Florida 9/23, at USF 11/25
Takeaways: Biff’s a money man and why does +20000 to win the conference sound compelling for me to make it rain? Only kidding, but if they can beat South Carolina State and Georgia State in the first four weeks, I think 2 conference wins is in play here. I like the money man for no reason whatsoever and I’ll lean over 3.5 wins here.
14. Tulsa Golden Hurricane
- Head coach: Terry Bowden
- Total wins: O/U 3 wins
- Odds to win conference: +15000
- 2022 record: 4-8 (5-7)
- Bowl game result: DNQ
- 2022 total offense: 103
- 2022 total defense:122
Offense: Davis Brin transferring out (GA Southern) so Braylon Braxton starting at QB, 10 TD and 2 picks last year in 9 games, great runner as well, RB back after injury last year (7.4 YPC in 2021)
Defense: 9 of 15 with 250+ snaps are back but the 6 leaving includes likely the 5 best from last year
Schedule notes: at Washington 9/9, host Oklahoma 9/16
Takeaways: Might tune in to watch fellow Buffalo Bills fan Braylon Braxton (per the team page), I think there are at least 6 or 7 winnable games on this schedule but I refuse to put any hard earned cash on Kevin Wilson. Cannot take that man seriously.
AAC Takeaways:
Bets placed: UAB Blazers under 4.5 wins +124 Fan Duel
Leans: ECU Pirates under 5.5 wins, FAU over 7.5 wins, UTSA Over 7.5 wins, UNC Charlotte over 2.5, USF Under 4.5 wins
Other bets: SMU overs, North Texas overs, Temple unders, Rice overs
Life on the line conference champion: Tulane +270
Life not on the line conference champion: UTSA +450
Long shot: FAU +900
Official conference prediction: UTSA over Tulane
Conference preview disclaimer:
Most of my information was obtained from Bill Connelly’s conference previews on ESPN and the Cover 3 Podcast’s Summer School hosted by Bud Elliott. Thanks to them for saving me an abundance of time in accumulating information on each team. This is all for fun and pure enjoyment so apologies in advance for any incorrect information including misspellings in names, changes in odds, or players listed on the wrong team as the revolving door on the transfer portal never stops. Lastly, sorry if any bias is present in any of my takes, but if it seems like I hate one team more than another, it is probably because I hate one team more than another.