Conference USA – founded 1995
Teams: 9
Divisions: 1
(everyone plays each other once with top two teams meeting in the championship game)
Who’s in/Who’s out in 2023:
Only 5 teams return: Florida International Panthers, Louisiana Tech , Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, University of Texas El Paso, Western Kentucky
Lost 6 teams to the AAC: UTSA, North Texas, UAB, Florida Atlantic, Rice, Charlotte
New additions: Liberty and New Mexico State (both independent last year), Jacksonville State and Sam Houston (FCS last year) as well. JSU and SHSU bump the NCAAF FBS team total to 133. (Kennesaw State will join CUSA next year to increase the total to 134!)
Biggest stadium:
Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas with a capacity of 45,971
1. Florida International Panthers
- Head coach: Mike McIntyre (second season) – former CU Buffs coach
- Total wins: O/U 3.5
- Odds to win conference: +8000
- 2022 record: 4-8 (5-7 ATS)
- Bowl game: DNQ
- 2022 total offense: 121
- 2022 total defense: 127
Offense: Top receiver Tyrese Chambers from Baltimore transferred to Maryland for final season, leading rusher and third-leading receiver Lexington Joseph injured in spring and out for the season
Defense: returning lots of players with experience, top sack man transferred out (returning leader only had 3 sacks), talent in secondary
Schedule notes: Open at Louisiana Tech 8/26, At Arkansas 11/18
Takeaways: Lean Under 3.5 wins here. With the exception of Maine in Week 2, I think they could possibly be an underdog in the rest. At Sam Houston State and hosting Jax State 10/18 and 10/25 respectively would be their final cracks at 4 wins as they finish at Middle Tennessee, at Arkansas, and hosting conference favorite Western Kentucky
2. Jacksonville State Gamecocks
- Head coach: Rich Rodriguez
- Total wins: O/U 5 wins
- Odds to win conference: Ineligible
- 2022 record: N/A (N/A ATS)
- 2022 total offense: N/A
- Bowl game: N/A
- 2022 total defense: N/A
Offense: Two stud RBs are back (both over 800 yards last year) with four starting linemen, QB Zion Webb approved for 7th year on appeal 6/15/23
Defense: huge question mark – full of JUCO transfers. They were below average in FCS in total defense last year (66/122)
Schedule notes: open at home vs UTEP, at Coastal Carolina Week 2 should give us a good first impression, at South Carolina 11/4
Takeaways: too much unknown with transition to FBS, defense, and quarterback situation to formulate any sort of projection here but we will keep our eye on them as an over team if one of the freshmen shows even a glimpse of being Pat-White like
3. Liberty Flames
- Head coach: Jamey Chadwell
- Total wins: O/U 9
- Odds to win conference: +250
- 2022 record: 8-5 (6-7 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Defeated by Toledo 19
- 21 in Boca Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 71
- 2022 total defense: 53
Offense: Incumbent Johnathan Bennett will try to hold off former Tennessee Vol 4-star and top 50 recruit Kaidon Salter. Former Southern Miss starter Trey Lowe also a player here. Gotta think Bennett starts but I would not be surprised to see Salter get his shot, Denverite Dae Dae Hunter with 1000 all purpose yards last year (former Rainbow Warrior) transferring out and will sit out the fall
Defense: only 4 starters returning from a unit that caused 29 turnovers last year
Schedule notes: no Power 5 teams, open with 2 MAC schools in first 3 weeks, At Western Kentucky 10/24
Takeaways: They have the easiest schedule in college football- literally 133/133 per ESPN FPI strength of schedule, Should be favored in every game besides at WKU. If they beat WKU and they will presumably guarantee a spot in the final. Overall, could relatively suck and given the cupcake schedule, could end up 10-2. I think 10 wins is more likely than 8 so I will lean over 9 here.
4. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
- Head coach: Sonny Cumbie
- Total wins: O/U 6 wins
- Odds to win conference: +900
- 2022 record: 3-9 (6-6 ATS)
- Bowl game result: DNQ
- 2022 total offense: 61
- 2022 total defense: 128
Offense: bringing in Hank Bachmeier, Sqwirl Williams, and Decoldest Crawford to help the offense get on that Air Raid level of statistics. Smoke Harris is back as well.
Defense: bringing some guys back up front on defense which will hopefully help the D-coordinator figure things out in year 2. One cannot imagine it getting a whole lot worse as they gave up 469 yard per game of total offense last year (128/131 last year)
Schedule notes: Open vs FIU, play at Nebraska 9/23
Takeaways: Perfect example of a team I need to watch that I would not have known I needed to watch unless I did this deep dive. Might be a good sleeper play in conference play depending on if the DC can figure things out. An improved offense to help keep the defense off the field should help in theory. Should be a good over team regardless.
5. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
- Head coach: Rick Stockstill
- Total wins: O/U 6.5 wins
- Odds to win conference: +550
- 2022 record: 8-5 (6-6-1 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Defeated San Diego State 25-23 in Hawaii Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 62
- 2022 total defense: 78
Offense: Presumptive starting QB looks like he’s had a relatively promising completion % but a low YPA in limited time the past two seasons, replacing top 3 receivers, RB returns after 800 total rushing yards but only 4.3 YPC last year
Defense: Returning 12 of 15 guys with 300+ defensive snaps last year
Schedule notes: Play at Alabama Week 1, at Missouri Week 2, then host family weekend vs Murray State Week 3 if their players get out of the ICU by then
Takeaways: Looks like a great under team with a lackluster offense and the defense expected to take a big step with so many returning starters
6. New Mexico State Aggies
- Head coach: Jerry Kill
- Total wins: O/U 6 wins
- Odds to win conference: +4000
- 2022 record: 7-6 (8-5 ATS)
- 2022 total offense: 82
- 2022 total defense: 47
Offense: Diego Pavia will battle 4-star transfer Texas A&M transfer Eli Stowers for starting QB job – keep in mind, this team was 7-0 when completing 53% of passes in games last year
Defense: Only replacing linebacking corp but only one player with an interception returns to the team from last year
Schedule notes: open vs UMASS, at New Mexico 9/16, play at Hawaii 9/23, at Auburn 11/18
Takeaways: Sleeper team (as in REM sleep sleeper team) to make the CUSA championship game. 13-game schedule which is 2nd easiest schedule in all of college football with non-conference opponents including UMASS, Western Illinois, and Hawaii. With only 3 likely losses, 3 toss-ups and 7 expected wins, I will take over 6 wins here as I see 6 wins as the worst case.
7. Sam Houston State Bearkats
- Head coach: K.C. Keeler
- Total wins: O/U 4 wins
- Conference odds: Ineligible
- 2022 record: N/A (N/A ATS)
- 2022 total offense: N/A
- 2022 total defense: N/A
Offense: could really struggle – 45% completion rate and only 6 TDS passing last year, no returning receivers with more than 16 grabs last year
Defense: Strength should be on defense – bringing in some transfer d-lineman to fill holes up front
Schedule notes: play at BYU week 1 (bust out the pizza and pop), host Air Force Week 2, then play at Houston Week 3
Takeaways: Sam Houston State is not in Houston, if FCS defense can translate to FBS level then they should be a great under team, also taking team total under week 1 vs BYU (currently around 14-15)
8. University of Texas El Paso Miners
- Head coach: Dana Dimel
- Total wins: O/U 5.5 wins
- Odds to win conference: +1600
- 2022 record: 5-7 (5-7 ATS)
- Bowl game result: DNQ
- 2022 total offense: 93
- 2022 total defense: 72
Offense: -QB, RB, and two all-conference guards return. Could be best line in CUSA, top wideout transferred to Texas A&M, top lineman transferred to Florida State.
Defense: most defensive pieces return
Other notes: Struggled to bring in transfers so brought in 25 JUCO guys
Schedule notes: open at Jax State, at Northwestern Week 2, at Arizona Week 3
Takeaways: Losing their top two players is one example of why the transfer portal isn’t the greatest thing ever, Chris Vannini. As far as a prediction goes here, I am not going to even pretend to have one here with so much turnover including 25 JUCO guys coming in.
9. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
- Head coach: Tyson Helton (Clay Helton’s brother)
- Total wins: O/U 8
- Odds to win conference: +145
- 2022 record: 9-5 (9-5 ATS)
- Bowl game: Defeated South Alabama 44-23 in New Orleans Bowl (I was on wrong end of this)
- 2022 total offense: 15
2022 total defense: 44
Offense: Austin Reed (nation-leading 4700+ yards, 40 TDs) returns with top wideout Malachi Corley (nearly 1300 yards receiving last year) as well as 3 power 5 transfers
Defense: total overhaul – 5 of top 6 D-linemen gone, 3 of top 4 linebackers, 2 guys from the secondary
Schedule notes: At OSU week 3, at Troy Week 4, Host Liberty 10/24
Takeaways: physically survive weeks 3 and 4 without injury to your stars and survive conference play with only one loss and they should find themselves in the CUSA championship game again. This feels like a repeat of the Bailey Zappe year to me. Given the turnover on defense and known offensive firepower, could be another solid over team.
Conference USA takeaways:
Only 7 teams are eligible to win and everything says this should be a toss-up between Liberty and WKU. These teams meet 10/24 in Bowling Green which could be the first of two matchups. Interestingly, Liberty has a bit of a cupcake schedule while WKU will travel to take on OSU and Troy in September. The second tier of MTSU and La Tech are two teams who could sneak into the championship game if things fall their way but La Tech’s defense has to improve substantially. I would be stunned if any of the other teams in the third tier (everyone left) would be a factor – but leave it to Jerry Kill and Diego Pavia to make me sound like an idiot here.
Conference prediction: Western Kentucky over Liberty
Official plays: New Mexico State OVER 6 wins -120 Caesars, Sam Houston team total under week 1 (take whatever number you can get with plus odds)
Leans: LA Tech OVER 8 wins, FIU Panthers UNDER 3.5 wins
Keep an eye on: Jax State overs, LA Tech overs, Middle Tennessee State unders, Sam Houston State unders
Conference preview disclaimer:
Most of my information was obtained from Bill Connelly’s conference previews on ESPN and the Cover 3 Podcast’s Summer School hosted by Bud Elliott. Thanks to them for saving me an abundance of time in accumulating information on each team. This is all for fun and pure enjoyment so apologies in advance for any incorrect information including misspellings in names, changes in odds, or players listed on the wrong team as the revolving door on the transfer portal never stops. Lastly, sorry if any bias is present in any of my takes, but if it seems like I hate one team more than another, it is probably because I hate one team more than another.