We followed up the the perfect week* with a 3-3 week. My sincerest apologies on this.
It is truly hard to believe this week marks the finale of Season 2. It’s been ugly at times and it’s been real ugly at other times but we currently have to make up approx 10 units in the big game to break even. I’m sure this won’t end well.
As this marks the finale, let’s recap the smartest and dumbest things I said this season. But before we do that, let’s just remind ourselves of the first scoring play of Season 2: an incomplete no-look forward pass from the end zone on a punt return.
Yes, this serves as just confirmation we were doomed from the start.
Smartest things I said this year:
Week 0: The Urban Meyer experiment is “going to go really good or really bad and initial impressions are it’s going to be the latter.”
Week 1: “I’ll be in Madison this weekend watching the Nittany Lions trounce the Badgers.”
Week 1: I hit the first [1:1 Parlay] last year and then lost quite a few in a row, so fasten your seatbelts because it’s about to be a bumpy ride.
Week 2: If anyone wants to bet against Texas with me all year long, feel free to join in on the fun.
Week 3: Something tells me Jimmy Lake is in hot water already only 6 games into his head coaching career.
Week 4: Someone get Ryan Fitzpatrick out of the ICU.
Week 4: Jaxon Dart will be in the transfer portal in <3 months.
Week 5: Outside of the SEC, I’m not sure which conference is able to offer up a legitimate football team to compete for a national championship.
Week 6: Cincinnati and BYU have established themselves as serious contenders to become the first non-Power 5 teams to get into the CFB playoff.
Week 6: I cannot see things shaking out where Kliff Kingsbury leads a team to the Super Bowl.
Week 6: Let’s all say a prayer before bed tonight that Mac Jones isn’t the next Tom Brady.
Week 6: I am officially eliminating Derek Carr from the MVP race. You heard it here first.
Week 6: My hair is falling out at such a concerning rate, I am convinced my head will look like Dana Holgorsen’s at my wedding (It’s not great.)
Week 7: Georgia’s defense is honestly unbelievable. Maybe the best we’ve ever seen in our lifetime.
Week 8: I think I might have to stop doing these (Longshot Moneylines) if I can’t hit 1 out of 3.
Jameis didn’t let his injury stop him from celebrating the win over the Bucs 💀🤣 pic.twitter.com/r557yA23wC
— Pickswise (@Pickswise) November 1, 2021
Week 11: Dan Mullen is getting fired.
Week 11: OBJ should be mandated to spend 365 days with the Lions.
Week 13: I feel like I should face some sort of penalty for betting an under and one team covers it themselves.
Week 13: The Colts are frauds.
Week 13: Someone start the official Vic Fangio countdown.
Week 15: God Bless you Thomas Hammock, you are a treasure.
Week 15: Tell me this man (Bailey Zappe) doesn’t look like he is about to dial up 500 yards on someone.
Week 16: The Patriots are frauds.
Week 17: Raiders head coach Rich Bassacia “is my dad’s long lost twin.”
Week 18: There’s no chance this ends well but hope you’re along for the ride.
Week 19: “I have decided to spice things up this week and try a teaser… instead of sacrificing 3 units with these bets every week.” (Travman teaser = gold.)
Dumbest things I said this year:
Week 1: “The 1:1 is back.” (The 1:1 was never back.)
Week 1: “The LSML is also back and looking for revenge!” (Also not back.)
Week 2: Kyle Whittingham “owns his alma mater.” (Final score: BYU 26 Utah 17)
Week 3: Keep your eye on Greg Schiano & Co because they are up to something. (Rutgers 5-8.)
Week 3: “This is Mullet Gundy’s worst team that I can remember.” (Ok State Big 12 runner-up.)
Week 3: Teddy Bridgewater “found a home in Denver with a top 10 defense and plenty of weapons to throw to.” (Must have just been brainwashed by local radio.)
Week 4: SB prediction: Chiefs over Seahawks (Seahawks 7-10.)
Week 4: “I just don’t love the Rams.” (Current Super Bowl favorite.)
Week 5: “Cue the Derek Carr for MVP discussion and don’t forget you heard it here first.” (Both the first AND last time you heard it was here.)
Week 5: “I know what you’re thinking and trust me, Florida is not going to lose to Kentucky.” (Kentucky 20 Florida 13.)
Week 6: Texas is back. (Subsequently blows massive lead to Oklahoma in the second half.)
Week 7: SB prediction: Ravens over Rams (Ravens miss playoffs.)
Week 7: It is crazy to think [Georgia is] stomping everyone with Stetson Bennett playing (Make that National Championship MVP Stetson Bennett.)
Week 8: There are currently no tickets on sale to the general public for the Rainbow Warriors game but do not count me out just yet. (Searched the internet for hours…no tickets available.)
Week 10: If you exclude Eli’s 2 Super Bowl runs, are Eli and Daniel Jones the same person? (This was referencing their appearance but seems like a stretch.)
Week 11: Besides one Super Bowl appearance as a coach – which he of course lost – and one Pro Bowl selection as a player, Jim Harbaugh is pretty irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. (Michigan goes on to win B1G and make the CFB playoff.)
Week 11: I believe I have finally cracked the formula for the longshot moneylines and I am excited to put it in action this weekend. (I think I only won one more LSML after I made this statement.)
Week 12: I am sticking with my Ravens vs. Rams prediction. (Should not have done that.)
Week 14: I still love the Ravens (Still should not have done that.)
Week 18: I think Michigan can string together more scoring drives than they are getting credit for. (Michigan proceeds to only score 11 points in garbage time)
WEEK 22 RE$ULTS:
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: CHIEFS VS BENGALS
Prediction: Chiefs 38 Bengals 20
1. Chiefs -7 ❌
I bought the Chiefs a loss and I’m happy about it. There’s not much else to say. Other than something about Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy being treated as offensive masterminds with all the talent the Chiefs have on offense is mildly comical if you really think about it.
2. Chiefs Team Total OVER 31.5 ❌
With 21 points in their first three drives, I cannot believe this didn’t hit. So stupid it doesn’t make any sense whatsoever.
3. Chiefs 1st half Team Total OVER 16.5 ✅
At least this one proved to be easy.
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: RAMS VS 49ERS
Prediction: Rams 21 49ers 20
4. 49ers +3.5 ✅
We were definitely in the ballpark here: a close Rams win.
5. UNDER 45.5 ✅
Also way too ea$y after a scoreless first quarter.
6. Deebo Samuel OVER 39.5 rushing yards ❌
Given his 6.0 YPC average, we got the 7 carries we needed, but the long run never came to fruition. You’re still my guy Deebo.
Travman Teaser:
- 49ers ML (+155) ❌
- Chiefs -9.5 (+115) ❌
- Chiefs -13.5 (+180) ❌
Total: -3.0 Units
Law of averages here. Anyone else intentionally lose everything the weekend before the big game so we win big this weekend?
As for our final picks of the season…
$ix Rack Ten Rack Week 23 Super Bowl WINNER$:
Caesars Sportsbook is running a promotion where if you hit 7/10 prop bets, you will win a $56 free bet. As if I didn’t need a reason to pick a bunch of stupid ass prop bets, here we are. As we need to make up roughly 10 units this weekend, it’s time to go big or go home.
1. Both teams with 35+ yard field goal: YES +110
Both Evan McPherson and Matt Gay have kicked a 35+ yarder in every game this postseason. I have absolutely no idea what’s up with this but I am sure we’ll lose. Regardless, the odds are better than 50%…right?
2. Opening kickoff to be a touchback: NO -115
Bengals kickoff for touchback percentage is at 59.7% and Rams are at 63.3%. So why is this a 50/50 proposition? Turns out, in the last 30 Super Bowls, just two kickoffs (7%) have resulted in a touchback as the NFL uses a heavier/harder kicking ball for the opening kickoff which goes straight to the Hall of Fame. FYI: I read this on the internet and I don’t know if it’s true.
3. A sack or TD happens first: SACK -105
Joe Burrow leads the league in sacks taken. Matt Stafford is tied for 12th most. It takes a lot of things coming together to lead a scoring drive and it takes one piss poor blocking assignment for a sack. I’ll take my chances on the latter.
4. Team to throw first INT in game: Rams +100
Something tells me Joe Burrow plays this game immaculately and Matt Stafford doesn’t.
5. Rams to punt or score first: PUNT -130
Again, some first drive jitters for a guy like Matthew Stafford seems rather expected.
6. Will there be a 2-point conversion in the game: YES +100
I‘m concerned about your health if you don’t think one of these try hard coaches goes for 2 way earlier in this game than they should when they don’t need to.
7. Third quarter winner: BENGALS +0.5 -125
Bengals win this quarter outright. And if not, a tie is our friend.
8. Johnny Hekker longest punt: OVER 53.5 -115
This man punted once last week and it went 58 yards. Imagine if he gets half a dozen cracks at 54 yards, I just don’t see a scenario where he doesn’t tattoo at least one of these. He already owns the Super Bowl record with a 65-yard punt a few years back. (Eff it, you can give me the over on that as well.) And speaking of long punts, let’s please never forget this one.
9. Total Players with pass attempt in game: OVER 2.5 +160
Again, we don’t think one of these try hards tries an end around pass at least once? Maybe a double pass? I wouldn’t rule out Hecker firing one down field on a fake punt either. Expect it to happen early on too.
10. Joe Mixon TD: YES +105
I was shocked to see Mixon has only scored once in his last four games he saw action. I was also shocked to see how little I give a shit about this. Mixon scores at least once in this game.
Travman Teasers (1 unit each):
- Bengals ML (+170)
- Bengals -2.5 (+200)
- Bengals -6.5 (+400)
There is nothing else you need to know other than the Bengals have covered 7 games in a row. Joe Burrow has whatever it is that every NFL GM is looking for. I don’t know if they can be consistently good for a period of time, but this weekend, the Bengals move the ball up and down the field, cause multiple turnovers on D, and win this game by a TD or more.
Final score prediction: Bengals 27 Rams 20 +20000 (0.5 units)
Line: Bengals +4.5 -110 (1 unit)
Super Bowl MVP: Joe Burrow +230 (1 unit)
And that’s a wrap. Thanks to those who followed along all season long. Special thanks to the editor as well for being forced to read these things weekly whether he wanted to or not. So for one last time, good luck perverts. And let’s go Bengals.