Southeastern Conference – founded 1932
Teams: 14
Divisions: 2
(East/West) for one last year. Worth noting, the dividing line is at an angle so Missouri is in the east despite being more west than 5 of the 7 West teams
Who’s in/Who’s out in 2023:
No changes, Oklahoma and Texas to join next year
Reigning Champ:
Georgia
Schedule features:
8 conference games plus 4 non-conference games
Conference Championship:
East/West winners meet in Atlanta, GA
Biggest stadium:
Kyle Field, College Station, TX with a stadium capacity of 102,733
Things to Consider:
Pretty straight forward, can the Dawgs three-peat?
1. Georgia Bulldogs
- Win total: O/U 11.5
- Odds to win conference championship: -110
- Head coach: Kirby Smart
- 2022 record: 15-0 (8-7)
- Bowl game result: Defeated TCU 63-7 in National Championship
- 2022 total offense: 5
- 2022 total defense: 5
Offense: Carson Beck taking over for Stetson Bennett, Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey back, handful of solid RBs, four lineman with starting experience are back
Defense: lose Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith, and Kelee Ringo (all somehow now Eagles), questions with pass rush, replacing another starter in secondary in addition to Ringo
Schedule notes: host South Carolina 9/16, at Kentucky 10/7, at Florida 10/28, host Ole Miss 11/11, at Tennessee 11/18
Takeaways: I do not think it is crazy for them to run the table again but I’d suspect they get tripped up at some point this year – even if it makes no sense. (I will throw someone like South Carolina or Kentucky out there.) Regardless, it seems insane to think they aren’t playing in the conference championship in December and may have clinched a spot in the playoff regardless of winning or losing. For parity’s sake, I am down for some fresh blood (apologies to Mattural).
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
- Win total: O/U 10.5
- Odds to win conference championship: +300
- Head coach: Nick Saban
- 2022 record: 11-2 (6-6-1)
- Bowl game result: Defeated Kansas State 45-20
- 2022 total offense: 4
- 2022 total defense: 9
Offense: lost QB, RB and 3 all-SEC OL, genuinely a 3-horse race between Jalen Milroe, Ty Simpson, and Tyler Buchner (Greg McElroy hinted it might be Simpson, and consensus seems to be it won’t be Milroe so I’ll guess Buchner to make it fun), Senior Jace McClellan and true freshman Justice Haynes are going to be carrying the load, receivers looking to take next step
Defense: losing top two lineman, linebackers, and safeties, however still loaded as one would expect, Kool-Aid McKinstry is the top guy in the secondary
Schedule notes: host Texas 9/9, host Ole Miss 9/23, at Texas A&M 10/7, host Tenn 10/21, host LSU 11/4
Takeaways: I’d lean over here – I think they lose once. Given my love for watching Alabama lose, however, I would not bet the over on their season win total but I will be taking them to win the SEC West at +105. I think QB play is ultimately irrelevant here and Bama can return to the top with above average QB play here. The amount of talent on their bench is likely incomprehensible. Also of note, I will be taking Alabama to cover the spread vs Tennessee regardless of how large it is.
3. Louisiana State Tigers
- Win total: O/U 9.5
- Odds to win conference championship: +500
- Head coach: Brian Kelly
- 2022 record: 10-4 (8-6)
- Bowl game result: Defeated Purdue 63-7
- 2022 total offense: 24
- 2022 total defense: 34
Offense: Jalen Daniels and top target Malik Nabers are back, 13 of 18 players with 200 snaps return last season, also added ND RB transfer Logan Diggs (821 yards rushing last year)
Defense: Harold Perkins future first round draft pick, 2021 5 star recruit Maason Smith back (hurt in FSU game last year) – replacement Mekhi Wingo back as well who starred as replacement, lost 5 of top 7 guys in secondary with 5 star Denver Harris (A&M) coming in
Schedule notes: vs Florida State 9/3, at Alabama 11/4, at Florida 11/11, at Texas A&M 11/25
Takeaways: These guys overachieved last year and I was one of the lucky beneficiaries. I think there is a chance they are conversely overhyped this year. I love watching Brian Kelly lose but I am going to sit this one out as well. They avoid Georgia in a crossover game and I think these guys could ho-hum their way to 10 wins. I’d be shocked if they beat Bama again though.
4. Texas A&M Aggies
- Win total: O/U 8
- Odds to win conference championship: +1400
- Head coach: Jimbo Fisher
- 2022 record: 5-7 (4-7-1)
- Bowl game result: DNQ
- 2022 total offense: 101
- 2022 total defense: 25
Returning starters:
Offense: Conner Weigman returns to run the offense, very solid receiving corps, inexperienced RBs and OL with 10 returning starters but big question mark on ability
Defense: defense should be very strong overall with too many 4 and 5 stars to count with only one caveat – DJ Durkin is the DC. 25th overall defense last year, interested to see if it takes the next step.
Schedule notes: at Miami 9/9, vs Arkansas 9/30, host Alabama 10/7, at Tennessee 10/14, host South Carolina 10/28, at Ole Miss, at LSU 11/25
Takeaways: 101st in total offense last year, Bobby Petrino will call plays from the pressbox. I am forecasting the gauntlet of Weeks 5-10 when we start to hear quite a bit about Jimbo’s job status again if things do not go well. Call me an idiot but I do suspect a big bounce back year from A&M this year. If Petrino can help get this offense back on the tracks and Durkin can help this defense take the next step and become a top 10 defense (which I think it can be with the talent), these guys could be legit. I see 8 wins as worst case so I will lean over 8 here.
5. Tennessee Volunteers
- Win total: O/U 9
- Odds to win conference championship: +1900
- Head coach: Josh Huepel
- 2022 record: 11-2 (10-3)
- Bowl game result: Defeated Clemson 31-14 in Orange Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 1
- 2022 total defense: 37
Offense: top 2 backs and 3 of top 5 receivers back, Squirrel White is the guy to keep your eye on this year, experience on line and previously starting Miami U lineman transferring in to help
Defense: returning 14 of 21 players with 200+ snaps last year and add two back 7 BYU starters, almost everyone returns in secondary but were 127th in pass D last year
Schedule notes: at UF 9/16, host UTSA 9/23, host Texas A&M 10/14, at Alabama 10/21, host Georgia 11/18
Takeaways: I see last year as an outlier and the last 30 years as more of what to expect here. I also see an average QB like Hendon Hooker suddenly becoming an elite passer as an anomaly as well. I think it is highly unlikely Joe Milton takes this same huge step forward after years of mediocrity. I think this is an 8-4 team and I think 7-5 is more likely than 9-3. This is not necessarily a knock on them but more so a difficult schedule as well. Games vs Georgia and Alabama are both losses 9 times out of 10. I see games at Florida and at Kentucky as toss-ups and even beating South Carolina and Texas A&M at home seems far from a cakewalk. (I will even get a bit ridiculous and say you are insane if you think UTSA is a gimme.) Splitting the 4 legit toss-ups puts them at 8-4 which I see as the best case for this team realistically. Playing 2 units under 9 wins (-110) and 2 units under 8.5 wins (+150).
6. Mississippi Rebels
- Win total: O/U 7.5
- Odds to win conference championship: +5000
- Head coach: Lane Kiffin
- 2022 record: 8-5 (4-8-1)
- Bowl game result: defeated by Texas Tech
- 25-42 in Texas Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 29
- 2022 total defense: 57
Offense: Jaxon Dart outperformed Spencer Sanders (in from Ok State) this spring, Quinshon Judkins 1600 yards/16TDs, a first down on a third of runs, Zakhari Franklin in from UTSA
Defense: Relatively underachieving Alabama DC in to coach the defense, 3 projected starting DBs transferred out but 5 DBs in who defended at least 7 passes last year elsewhere transferred in
Other notes: the kicker is back from PED suspension last year (claimed he got burned on something he bought from GNC)
Schedule notes: at Tulane 9/9, at Bama 9/23, host LSU 9/30, at Georgia 11/11
Takeaways: I want to like Lane Kiffin but don’t really. I also don’t think he is a great coach, although what he is accomplishing at Ole Miss is clearly harder than I think observing from the couch. Even odds on over 7.5 wins is appealing but I am going to leave this alone. Feels like floor of 7 and ceiling of 8 wins here for sure. I think Kiffin will soon get that breakout season he’s seeking so he can take a bigger job.
7. Auburn Tigers
- Win total: O/U 6.5
- Odds to win conference championship: +8000
- Head coach: Hugh Freeze
- 2022 record: 5-7 (5-6-1)
- Bowl game result: DNQ
- 2022 total offense: 86
- 2022 total defense: 97
Offense: Payton Thorne (Mich State) in to battle Robby Ashford, top 2 RBs back but brought in 5 WR transfers including a 6-4 Jax St transfer with 4XL gloves (my middle school football coach would love this), 4 OL transfers as 6 of top 7 OL are gone.
Defense: cornerbacks should be strong, starting defense should be filled with transfers as well
Schedule notes: at Texas A&M 9/23, host Georgia 9/30, at LSU 10/14, host Ole Miss 10/21, host Bama 11/25
Takeaways: Too much unknown on Auburn to make a play. I suspect they make a bowl game knowing Hugh Freeze but to be seriously competitive in the SEC West this year seems nuts to me. I will lean 7-5.
8. Florida Gators
- Win total: O/U 5.5
- Odds to win conference championship: +11000
- Head coach: Billy Napier
- 2022 record: 6-7 (7-6)
- Bowl game result: Defeated by Oregon State 3-30
- 2022 total offense: 58
- 2022 total defense: 87
Offense: Going from Anthony Richardson to Graham Mertz which is worst nightmare sort of stuff, leading rushers back, leading receiver transferred to Cincy but Ricky Pearsall returns,
Defense: Desmond Watson 6 foot 5, 449 lbs along with two other dlineman top 320 lbs, losing top 4 LBs and majority of the secondary
Schedule notes: at Utah 8/31, host Tennessee 9/16, at Kentucky 9/30, vs Georgia 10/28, at LSU 11/11, host Florida State 11/25
Takeaways: There are 3 games on this schedule where I think they will be favored by a touchdown or more (and a fourth where they will likely be favored by a field goal vs Missouri). If they can take care of business, they need to find a way to pull off two more upsets. I am biased because I just watched a replay of the 2021 Wisconsin vs Penn State game but Graham Mertz winning this qb competition spells problems. I’d lean towards 5 instead of 6.
9. South Carolina Gamecocks
- Win total: O/U 6
- Odds to win conference championship: +11000
- Head coach: Shane Beamer
- 2022 record: 8-5 (7-6)
- Bowl game result: defeated by Notre Dame 38-45 in Gator Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 40
- 2022 total defense: 88
Offense: Spencer Rattler returns, losing best RB and WR, true freshman Nyckoles Harbor in on offense – world-class speed with a 10.28 100 meter dash and he plays at 6-5 230 lbs, Juice Wells could be one of best WRs in SEC, new OC (Dowell Loggains) has a hell of a wiki page – he was Adam Gase’s right hand man and who convinced the Browns to draft Johnny Manziel in 2014 when Manziel texted him that he wanted to be a Brown
Defense: replacing almost everyone from last year’s week front 7, strong secondary, losing best two DEs
Schedule notes: vs UNC 9/2, at Georgia 9/16, at Tenn 9/30, at Texas A&M 10/28, Clemson 11/25
Takeaways: I am seeing Furman, Missouri, Jacksonville State, and Vanderbilt as wins. I would lean Gamecocks in match-ups vs UNC, Miss St, and Florida. See no reason this team cannot win 7 games again. I had the over 7 queued then realized that there is a pretty strong possibility 6 or 7 wins comes down to whether they win their season opener vs UNC, so I audibled and just bet them to cover the spread in Week 1 and expedite my season payout by 3 months. Surprisingly, I can actually get 3 points to work with in that game. Also bonus, can’t wait to watch this Harbor guy play.
10. Arkansas Razorbacks
- Win total: O/U 7
- Odds to win conference championship: +10000
- Head coach: Sam Pittman
- 2022 record: 7-6 (7-6)
- Bowl game result: Defeated Kansas 55-53 in Liberty Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 35
- 2022 total defense: 101
Offense: OC Kendal Briles took TCU OC job, KJ Jefferson returns with starting RB but without any receivers, replacing 3 starters on OL, have a 6-9 310 lb tackle who was supposedly close to 400 at one point
Defense: DC Barry Odom now head coach at UNLV, 9 seniors on d-line, secondary dead last vs the pass last year, overall 9 of 17 defenders with 300+ snaps are back
Schedule notes: host BYU 9/16, at LSU 9/23, vs Texas A&M 9/30, at Miss 10/7, at Bama 10/14
Takeaways: A lot of gimmes on this schedule with Western Carolina, Kent State, FIU and likely BYU and Missouri. I love me some Sam Pittman, but I think 7 wins is most likely with 8 wins being slightly more likely than 6. I’ll lean over 7 but I am too worried about their defense to bet the over 7 here.
11. Kentucky Wildcats
- Win total: O/U 7
- Odds to win conference championship: +12500
- Head coach: Mark Stoops
- 2022 record: 7-6 (8-5)
- Bowl game result: Defeated by Iowa 0-21
- 2022 total offense: 112
- 2022 total defense: 11
Offense: Liam Cohen back to run the offense after year with Rams, Devin Leary in from NC State, 3 returning WRs, 4 returning lineman
Defense: returning multiple standout freshmen, losing both corners
Schedule notes: Host Florida 9/30, at Georgia 10/7, host Tennessee 10/28, host Bama 11/11, at Louisville 11/25
Takeaways: Finishing 112th on offense is beyond disappointing and you have to think with Liam Cohen back and Devin leary coming in, this team will take a step forward. Thank god, because the offensive performance in the bowl game was downright depressing. Mark Stoops burned the HH pod last year with a 3-5 finish to not get to 8 wins and I am still not over it. I do think 6-1 going into the bye week is not impossible, but it is anyone’s guess down the stretch. I do not have a strong lean one way or the other here and even if it was over, I would not place it anyway.
12. Mississippi State Bulldogs
- Win total: O/U 6
- Odds to win conference championship: +12500
- Head coach: Zach Arnett
- 2022 record: 9-4 (7-5-1)
- Bowl game result: Defeated Illinois 19-10 in ReliaQuest Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 43
- 2022 total defense: 40
Offense: App State OC in with a run-dominant approach (most pass heavy last year), lost 6 receivers including top 3 to transfer portal, implementing more 2 back sets and tight ends into the offense so they added 2 TE transfers including a Georgia transfer and a TCU transfer named Geor-quarius Spivey, only losing center on O-line
Defense: best DL returns off injury, two solid DTs and backers coming back, secondary has some veterans to replace 4 of top 5 in secondary
Schedule notes: host LSU 9/16, host Alabama 9/30, host Kentucky 11/4, host Ole Miss 11/23
Takeaways: Mike Leach’s team quietly won 9 games last year. In the SEC West, that is impressive as hell. Now they completely flip the script with Leach’s passing and bring in an up and coming defensive guru in Zach Arnett to try to duplicate success. Having third-year starter Will Rogers run things should help. A lot of big matchups at home as well as an out of conference schedule including Southeastern Louisiana, Arizona, Western Michigan, and Southern Miss should help as well. Was initially leaning over but too many question marks on the offensive side of the ball to ultimately make a guess here.
13. Missouri Tigers
- Win total: O/U 6.5
- Odds to win conference championship: +20000
- Head coach: Eli Drinkowitz
- 2022 record: 6-7 (7-6)
- Bowl game result: Defeated by Wake Forest 17-27 in Gasparilla Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 88
- 2022 total defense: 56
Offense: Kirby Moore in to call plays, incumbent Brady Cook is going to split snaps to start, two top backs return, transfer WRs in to play with Luther Burden III, 3 OL return
Defense: 12 of 16 players with 250+ snaps return
Other notes: fat kicker Harrison Mevis is back
Schedule notes: vs Kansas State 9/16, vs Memphis 9/23 (“Mizzou to the Lou Series”), host LSU 10/7, at Georgia 11/4, host Tenn 11/11
Takeaways: Never forget that the 2022 Missouri Tigers had Georgia on the ropes. With only two for sure wins on this year schedule, I’d lean under here. However, they do have as much returning depth as anyone, and the fact that Bill Connelly has these guys as favorites in 4 of their first 5 games however has me concerned this may finally be Missouri’s breakout year. Well until I saw he is alum that is. Taking under 6.5 here. Think they start 4-1 and lose 6 of 7 down the stretch and Drinkowitz gets fired. This is also could serve as a bit of a hedge for my Tennessee under bet given they do play 11/11 in Columbia.
14. Vanderbilt Commodores
- Win total: O/U 4
- Odds to win conference championship: +75000
- Head coach: Clark Lea
- 2022 record: 5-7 (5-7)
- Bowl game result: DNQ
- 2022 total offense: 89
- 2022 total defense: 125
Offense: AJ Swann banged up at times last year but finished with 10 TDs and 2 INTs, 58% completion rate (other two QBs transferred out), top 4 wideouts back, almost entire two deep on OL returns (over 70 starts combined)
Defense: 128th pressure rate last year, returning young starters on d-line, 4-star LB from Notre Dame transferring in, secondary likely to struggle again
Schedule notes: host Hawaii 8/26, host Kentcuky 9/23, host Missouri 9/30, host Georgia 10/14, at Tennessee 11/25 (off a bye)
Takeaways: Vandy enters the season as projected double-digit dogs in every conference game. I will throw on their games and root for them but I suspect they are still a couple of years away from being competitive. I look forward to the day they aren’t at the bottom of this list.
SEC Takeaways:
Conference prediction: Alabama over Georgia
Plays: Tenn U 8.5 (+150) and U9 (-110), USC +3 vs UNC Week 1, Bama minus whatever vs Tenn, Alabama to win SEC West +105, Missouri Under 6.5 -120
Leans: Georgia Under 11.5 wins, Alabama over 10.5 wins, Miss St under 6 wins, USC over 6 wins, Texas A&M over 8
Other plays: Tenn unders, Auburn overs, Miss unders
Conference preview disclaimer:
Most of my information was obtained from Bill Connelly’s conference previews on ESPN and the Cover 3 Podcast’s Summer School hosted by Bud Elliott. Thanks to them for saving me an abundance of time in accumulating information on each team. This is all for fun and pure enjoyment so apologies in advance for any incorrect information including misspellings in names, changes in odds, or players listed on the wrong team as the revolving door on the transfer portal never stops. Lastly, sorry if any bias is present in any of my takes, but if it seems like I hate one team more than another, it is probably because I hate one team more than another.