2023 CFB Conference Previews: Pac-12

Pac-12 Conference – founded 1915 (previously Pacific Coast, Big Five, Big Six, Pacific-8, Pacific-10)

Teams: 12 teams (no divisions)

Who’s in/Who’s out in 2023:

no changes yet, unknown for 2024 (USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington leaving for Big 10; Utah, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado leaving for Big 12)

Reigning Champ:

Utah Utes

Schedule features:

9 conference games plus 3 non-conference games

Conference Championship:

Top two teams meet at Allegiant Stadium 12/1/2023

Biggest stadium:

Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California with a capacity of 92,542

Things to Consider:

6 teams in the top 18 last year with a lot of strong QB play and overall weak defenses.

1. University of Southern California Trojans

Win total: O/U 10
Odds to win conference championship:+200
Head coach: Lincoln Riley
2022 record: 11-3 (8-6 ATS)
Bowl game result: Lost to Tulane 46-45
2022 total offense: 3
2022 total defense: 94

Offense: Heisman winner Caleb Williams looks to be second repeat winner (and first since 1975), Arizona’s Dorian Singer in to replace Jordan Addison, South Carolina’s MarShawn Lloyd in to replace Travis Dye

Defense: Lincoln Riley teams 46-1 when allowing under 30 points, 14 of 19 players with 200+ snaps return, bring in Georgia/Texas A&M d-lineman to help with a defense ranked 80th against the run last year

Schedule notes: Open at home vs San Jose St 8/26, At Folsom Field 9/30, at Notre Dame 10/14, Host Washington 11/4, at Oregon 11/11

Takeaways: I don’t like rooting for Lincoln Riley like I had to last year. I think I would be happy to see any other team but the Trojans to win this conference. I’ll be boring and say they lose 2 games – at Notre Dame and one Pac 12 match-up – and this is a push. Or they only lose 1 game and get beat in the Pac 12 title game again. I’ll also go ahead and say this year marks the end of the line for DC Alex Grinch.

2. Oregon Ducks

Win total: O/U 9.5
Odds to win conference championship:+340
Head coach: Dan Lanning
2022 record: 10-3 (8-5 ATS)
Bowl game result: defeated North Carolina 28-27
2022 total offense: 9
2022 total defense: 75

Offense: Bo Nix over 4000 total yards (excluding sack yards) at 72% completion rate, several skill WRs and backs returning with Troy Franklin being the name to remember, losing 4 starting o-lineman

Defense: 12 of 18 guys with 200+ snaps last year return plus added 5 former starters through the portal

Schedule notes: vs Texas Tech 9/9,, at Washington 10/14, at Utah 10/28, Host USC 11/11, Host Oregon State 11/24

Takeaways: I am expecting a massive jump for Oregon’s defense this year in second year under Lanning. They return a massive amount of skilled players on both sides of the ball. Whether this season is good or great hedges on whether they can manage to win one of two October road games (at Washington and at Utah). I suspect they will be better than Washington this year and I would lean towards them winning 10 or more games.

3. Washington Huskies

Win total: O/U 9.5
Odds to win conference championship:+330
Head coach: Kalen DeBoer
2022 record: 11-2 (8-5 ATS)
Bowl game result: Defeated Texas 27-20
2022 total offense: 7
2022 total defense: 58

Offense: Michael Penix (4641 yards last season) with one of the top receiving rooms – 5 leading WRs returning including two 1000-yard receivers in Jalen McMillan and Rome Adunze

Defense: massive bodies on the defensive line but struggled last year against the run

Schedule notes: Host Boise State Week 1, at Michigan State 9/16, Host Oregon 10/14, at USC 11/4, Host Utah 11/11, at Oregon State 11/18, Host Washington State 11/25

Takeaways: I see 6-7 games that are loseable for these guys. Let’s not forget they lost to ASU last year. Michael Penix has been injured for every season he has played quarterback with the exception of last year and I will play the odds that things don’t go as smoothly as last year. And speaking of being hurt, I am ready to get hurt again and bet against Washington won’t win 10 games again this year.

4. Utah Utes

Win total: O/U 8.5
Odds to win conference championship:+600
Head coach: Kyle Whittingham
2022 record: 10-4 (8-6 ATS)
Bowl game result: Defeated by Penn State 35-21 in Rose Bowl
2022 total offense: 11
2022 total defense: 27

Offense: Cam Rising returning but still rehabbing from injury, RB Micah Bernard returns, all conference OT return, lose Dalton Kincaid but return Brant Kuithe, Michael Pittman’s brother Mycah (muh-KAI) Pittman in at WR

Defense: 12 of 17 defenders with 200+ snaps return, only big loss was Clark Phillips and D could be even better this year

Schedule notes: Host Florida Thursday 8/31, At Baylor Week 2, at Oregon State 9/29, at USC 10/21, Host Oregon 10/28, at Washington 11/11

Takeaways: The two-time reigning champs bring back Cam Rising and the entire defense. Excluding the Covid season, they haven’t lost a game at home since Sept 2018. It is impossible to not have concerns about how Rising looks after tearing his ACL 7-8 months ago but let’s take a moment to consider who we are talking about here. I would lean strongly over here for wins but with two tricky non-conference games when Rising may not be 100%, I will instead take a flyer on them to win the Pac-12 at +600.

5. Oregon State Beavers

Win total: O/U 8.5
Odds to win conference championship:+1200
Head coach: Jonathan Smith
2022 record: 10-3 (11-2 ATS)
Bowl game result: Defeated Florida
2022 total offense: 39
2022 total defense: 16

Offense: DJU in from Clemson, RB Damien Martinez just under 1000 yards last year is back, top returning WR with only 27 catches last season

Defense: return almost all of d-line but losing two stud linebackers and ¾ of secondary, Georgia WR transfer is now playing LB

Other notes: Jack Colletto has finally graduated

Schedule notes: Host Utah 9/29, Host UCLA 10/14, Host Washington 11/18, at Oregon 11/24

Takeaways: The Beavers avoid USC and get 3 of their 4 hardest opponents at home. I watched DJ U throw for 439 yards as a true freshman against undefeated Notre Dame on the road. You are an idiot to question this guy’s physical talent and could one not forecast a fresh start helping to salvage what once was after watching Bo Nix and Michael Penix do this in the same conference last year? I lean over 8.5 wins here.

6. UCLA Bruins

Win total: O/U 8.5
Odds to win conference championship:+1500
Head coach: Chip Kelly
2022 record: 9-4 (6-7 ATS)
Bowl game result: Defeated by Pittsburgh 37-35 in Sun Bowl
2022 total offense: 8
2022 total defense: 92

Offense: lost DTR, Zach Charbonnet, top receivers and all conference guards, brought in two MAC guys: Colin Schlee (Kent State) and Carson Steel (Ball State), returner Ethan Garbers likely to start over Schlee to return, Cal transfer J.Michael Sturdivant should be a playmaker at WR

Defense: d-line should be the strength, D’Anton Lynn running the defense this year

Schedule notes: Host Coastal Carolina 9/2, at Utah 9/23, at Oregon State 10/14, host USC 11/18

Takeaways: I do not have a strong opinion here either way as far as the win total goes. I think UCLA ends up in the second tier with Oregon State and Washington behind USC, Oregon, and Utah. If I had to choose a side, I would lean under given a likely step back at QB and consistently poor defenses under Chip Kelly.

7. Washington State Cougars

Win total: O/U 6
Odds to win conference championship:+6000
Head coach: Jake Dickert
2022 record: 7-6 (8-5 ATS)
Bowl game result: Defeated by Fresno State 29-6
2022 total offense: 80
2022 total defense: 38

Offense: Cam Ward returns – struggled with sacks (T-4th most) and 20+ yard throws last year which seems to be the emphasis with the new OC from Western Kentucky, loses top WRs with >50 catches and starting LT, two transfer WRs in who should help right away

Defense: DC left to be Arizona State’s DC, best DT, two best linebackers and best nickelback will need replaced

Schedule notes: host Wisconsin 9/9, at Oregon State 9/23, at Oregon 10/21, at Washington 11/25

Takeaways: 0-5 against the best 5 teams it played last year with 3 double-digit losses and with 5 projected top-30 opponents again this year, taking over 6 wins seems pretty risky. I suspect they hit the 6 wins on the number – just enough talent overall for these guys to beat the teams they should.

8. California Bears

Win total: O/U 5
Odds to win conference championship:+8000
Head coach: Justin Wilcox
2022 record: 4-8 (7-5 ATS)
Bowl game result: DNQ
2022 total offense: 96
2022 total defense: 79

Offense: Sam Jackson V (TCU) trying to hold off Ben Finley (NC State) for starting QB job, sounds like Jackson is going to be playmaker in addition to a turnover machine, 3700 yard rusher former Montanta St RB in along with returning playmaking RB, lost top WR J.Michael Sturdivant to UCLA, top tackles return but struggled last year

Defense: two starting Mountain West defenders in, two talented LBs return

Schedule notes: At North Texas 9/2, Host Auburn 9/9, at Stanford 11/18, miss out on Arizona and Colorado

Takeaways: match up against the top 5 teams in league plus Stanford, only favored in 5 games overall, would lean under 5.5. I’m seeing only 1 sure win on this schedule with 4 toss-ups. The Cal beat writer sounded like he was narrating a funeral on the Summer School podcast. Going to play under 5/5.5 here. I think 4-8 is most realistic and if they lose at North Texas Week 1, suspect it could be worse.

9. Arizona Wildcats

Win total: O/U 5
Odds to win conference championship:+10000
Head coach: Jedd Fisch
2022 record: 5-7 (6-6 ATS)
Bowl game result: DNQ
2022 total offense: 48
2022 total defense: 126

Offense: Jayden De Laura (3585 yards passing) returns, lose top receiver but return two guys with over 700+ yards receiving last year, RB Michael Wiley rushed for 6.4 YPC last year including 9.2YPC over his last 4 games

Defense: two 300+ pound transfer DTs in, two former 4-star fellow Pac-12 linebacker transfer in

Schedule notes: at Miss State 9/9, Host Washington, UCLA, Oregon State, and Utah

Takeaways: I think hosting all the good teams sounds good in theory when in reality, this could spell problems given they will be on the road for 5 of their 7 winnable games. I do not have a play here but something to keep in mind. I will add I think I like what Fisch is doing in Tucson.

10. Arizona State Sun Devils

Win total: O/U 4.5
Odds to win conference championship:+15000
Head coach: Kenny Dillingham
2022 record: 3-9 (5-7 ATS)
Bowl game result: DNQ
2022 total offense: 79
2022 total defense: 107

Offense: Emory Jones out and Drew Pyne likely starting at QB (8-2 last year at Notre Dame), Cal transfer at RB, WRs are one of the strengths of team, CU/CSU transfers at WR

Defense: DC in from Washington State (Cougars D was 38th in total D last year), returning 3 of 4 starters in secondary with some depth coming in as well – should be strength of defense

Schedule notes: First 4 games at home including Week 2 vs Ok State and Week 3 vs Fresno State, at Washington, at Utah, and at UCLA in 3 of 4-week stretch in late Oct/early Nov

Takeaways: 50 new scholarship players for Arizona State as well makes this difficult to predict. I will say 8 home games makes 5 wins very possible however.

11. Colorado Buffaloes

Win total: O/U 3.5
Odds to win conference championship:+15000
Head coach: Deion Sanders
2022 record: 1-11 (2-10 ATS)
Bowl game result: DNQ
2022 total offense: 127
2022 total defense: 131

Offense: Excited to see how good Shedeur Sanders truly is against non-SWAC defenses. O-line should be average thanks to transfers.

Defense: consecutive top corner recruits in the country, Cormani McClain and Travis Hunter (who will play some offense too)

Schedule notes: At TCU Week 1, Host Nebraska Week 2 for home opener, Host Oregon State 11/4

Takeaways: Only 10 of 85 players are returning scholarship players. Dead least on D and fourth to last on O last year. Think the line is spot on – seems like a 3 or 4 team to me. Deion says he’s coming but the Buffs ain’t coming yet.

12. Stanford Cardinal

Win total: O/U 2.5
Odds to win conference championship:+30000
Head coach: Troy Taylor (formerly HC at Sacramento State)
2022 record: 3-9 (2-10 ATS)
Bowl game result: DNQ
2022 total offense: 109
2022 total defense: 113

Offense: 6 of 8 top o-lineman out but bringing two Ivy League lineman in, lose Tanner McKee with essentially no experience behind him, leading rusher less than 4 yards per carry

Defense: Only 2 of top 7 LBs and 1 of 8 top dbacks returns

Other notes: Kicker, Joshua Karty, is excellent, 18 of 18 last season including a 61-yarder

Schedule notes: At Hawaii 9/1, Host Sacramento State Hornets 9/16, at Colorado 10/13, Host Notre Dame 11/25

Takeaways: Favorite in Week 1 vs Hawaii but will be an underdog the rest of the way. I think Taylor’s success last year at Sacramento State and some fresh blood in general can help Stanford hopefully play a bit better than projected. Taylor implemented a 2-qb system last year so it will be interesting to see how creative he gets with a roster that lacks a lot of talent. A first-time DC paired with an offensive-minded head coach (he will be calling the plays on O) makes me expect their defense to really struggle so will consider their opponent’s team total overs frequently.

Pac-12 Takeaways:

Plays: Washington under 9.5 wins -135 BetMGM, Cal under 5 wins +100, Utah to win Pac 12 +600

Leans: Oregon over 9.5 wins, Oregon State over 8.5 wins

Other plays I like: USC overs, Washington overs, Stanford opponent team totals, Arizona overs, Oregon opponent unders

Pac-12 prediction: Utah over Oregon

Conference preview disclaimer:

Most of my information was obtained from Bill Connelly’s conference previews on ESPN and the Cover 3 Podcast’s Summer School hosted by Bud Elliott. Thanks to them for saving me an abundance of time in accumulating information on each team. This is all for fun and pure enjoyment so apologies in advance for any incorrect information including misspellings in names, changes in odds, or players listed on the wrong team as the revolving door on the transfer portal never stops. Lastly, sorry if any bias is present in any of my takes, but if it seems like I hate one team more than another, it is probably because I hate one team more than another.