Mountain West Conference – founded 1999
Teams: 12 (no divisions)
Conference Championship:
Top 2 teams meet at top seeded team’s home field
Who’s in/Who’s out in 2023:
No new teams. San Diego State was out for next year but they are officially back… for now.
Biggest stadium:
Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV with a capacity of 65,000
1. Boise State Broncos
- Head coach: Andy Avalos
- Total wins: O/U 8.5
- Odds to win conference: +210
- 2022 record: 10-4 (6-7-1 ATS) (8-0 in conference play)
- Bowl game result: beat North Texas 35-32
- 2022 total offense: 57
- 2022 total defense: 15
Offense: Sophomore 6-6 QB Taylen Green who started every game after week 4 last year, 32.5 PPG when he started vs 22 when he did not, 10 rush TDs, 1100 yard rusher George Holani and top 4 WRs back along with 2 starting linemen
Defense: replacing ½ of 18 players with 250+ snaps last year, leading tackler back
Schedule notes: At Washington Week 1, host UCF Week 2, at Fresno State 11/4, host Air Force Black Friday
Takeaways: Not great value on Boise State whatsoever but there is a reason for this. I could see them running the table in the MWC again. Have to think they are at least playing in the championship game.
2. Fresno State Bulldogs
- Head coach: Jeff Tedford
- Total wins: O/U 8 wins
- Odds to win conference championship: +380
- 2022 record: 10-4 (7-7 ATS) with 9 straight wins to finish the year
- Bowl game result: Defeated Washington State 29-6 in LA Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 49
- 2022 total defense: 14
Offense: OC Kirby Moore to Missouri, complete overhaul of skill guys: QB Jake Haener and RB gone with 4 of top 5 receivers as well, QB comp is between Haener wannabe Logan Fife vs Mikey Keene, two transfer RBs coming in
Defense: brings back 8 of top 11 starters on D ranked 14th
Schedule notes:at Purdue (9AM PST), at Arizona State 9/16, Host Boise State 11/4
Takeaways: projected favorite in 10 of 12 games, 33% chance to win 10 games, defense should be strong, +380 sounds like good value to win MWC and could always hedge later if they do qualify. If offense sputters, could be a solid under team as well given the strength of their defense and so much returning production.
3. Air Force Falcons
- Head coach: Troy Calhoun
- Total wins: O/U 8.5 wins
- Odds to win conference: +500
- 2022 record: 10-3 (7-6 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Defeated Baylor 30-15 in Armed Forces Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 69 (nice)
- 2022 total defense: 3
Offense: 4 starting OL back but 3-year starter Haaziq Daniels as well as 1700 yard rusher Brad Roberts are gone, leading receiver caught 3 passes last year, second best RB is back, QB is going to be Jensen Jones
Defense: 9/13 starters with 250+ snaps return for a STRONG defense, alarming that the returning starting defensive tackles are listed at 260 lbs however
Schedule notes: November – Hosting Army 11/4 Mile High Stadium (mentioned previously), at Hawai 11/11, at Boise State 11/24 (Black Friday)
Takeaways: 3 straight 10-win seasons (excluding 2020), could be favored in every game but at Boise State last game of the season. Stat to know courtesy of Bill Connelly: when allowing 150 rushing yards or more, Air Force is 0-6 over the last three seasons. I do naturally suspect a step back on both O and D which does foreshadow yet another academy team I would lean under on for wins. Also could be an excellent under team with a projected strong defense returning pending how low Vegas decides to make their season totals.
4. San Diego State Aztecs
- Head coach: Brady Hoke
- Total wins: O/U 7 wins
- Odds to win conference: +900
- 2022 record: 7-6 (5-8 ATS)
- Bowl game result: lost to Middle Tennessee State 23-25
- 2022 total offense: 108
- 2022 total defense: 19
Offense: Boring QB is back <60% completion, 12 TD 10 INTs, 3 lineman back, Western Carolina transfer could be top receiver
Defense: replacing 6 of 7 guys up front, solid safeties, New Mexico’s leading tackler as a transfer
Schedule notes: Open with 3 home games: Ohio, Idaho State, UCLA, at Corvallis in Week 4 vs Beavs, host Fresno and Boise in Conference play which means they are playing their more likely winnable games on the road. Don’t like that. Would lean under.
Takeaways: Snapdragon Stadium wins best stadium name in MWC for sure, overall should be pretty boring on O with a solid D. Likely another great under team and would lean under for wins.
5. San Jose State Spartans
- Head coach: Brent Brennan
- Total wins: O/U 5.5
- Odds to win conference: +1500
- 2022 record: 7-5 (4-8 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Lost to Eastern Michigan 41-27 in Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 72
- 2022 total defense: 30
Offense: Chevan Cordeiro (Tua Tagavoiloa’s back-up in high school) – led MWC in passing yards, pass TDs last year, 32 total TDs, lose top receiver, four o-lineman back, top RB back, QB Nick Nash moving to receiver
Defense: lose top 3 interior DL but returning almost all of the back 7
Schedule notes: open at USC week 0, play at Oregon State week 1, host Air Force, Fresno, and San Diego State, At Boise 10/7
Takeaways: Keep an eye on the Spartans if their defense can play as well as it did last year. Their offense should be better if the receivers play well. They are playing their 3 biggest competitors for the second spot in the Mountain West at home. Hard to predict they can pull off an upset in Boise on 10/7 but I think the second spot and love long shot odds of +1600 odds here to win the MWC.
6. Wyoming Cowboys
- Head coach: Craig Bohl
- Total wins: O/U 6 wins
- Odds to win conference title: +1300
- 2022 record: 7-6 (6-6-1 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Lost to Ohio 27-30 in Barstool Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 110
- 2022 total defense: 48
Offense: 5 regulars back on OL averaging 6-5 312 lbs., QB Andrew Peasley returns after completing only 52% of his passes last year, top receiver transferred out
Defense: 13/16 guys with 250+ snaps back on D, top two tacklers back
Schedule notes: Host Texas Tech Week 1, at Texas Week 3, host App State Week 4, At Air Force 10/14 and at Boise 10/28
Takeaways: bleed clock on offense similar to an Academy team and return some guys on defense for a (historically speaking) good defense, should be a great under team, let’s not forget this coach made Josh Allen look shitty. Expect the offense to struggle and the defense to be excellent.
7. University of Nevada, Las Vegas Lobos
- Head coach: Barry Odom (first season)
- Total wins: O/U 6
- Odds to win conference: +5500
- 2022 record: 5-7 (7-5 ATS)
- Bowl game result: DNQ
- 2022 total offense: 76
- 2022 total defense: 86
Offense: Bobby Petrino was hired to be OC and left for A&M, new “Go-Go offense” with nobody to run it, QB Doug Brumfield back – shaky in spring game, top receiver back, top rusher transferred out
Defense: strong safeties, transfer LB from LSU
Schedule notes: At Michigan Week 2, hosting Vandy Week 3
Takeaways: A lot of unknowns for this team, up tempo offense could struggle with no one to run it, (serious juice on under 5.5 and I think 6 wins is a best case here – do not discount 1 bowl game in 20 years!). Will be favorites in 6 games but lose two of these and 6 wins seems impossible. I think 6-6 is the best case here so I will lean under.
8. Colorado State Rams
- Head coach: Jay Norvell
- Total wins: O/U 5 wins
- Odds to win conference: +2000 (up from +4000)
- 2022 record: 3-9 (6-6 ATS)
- Bowl game result: DNQ
- 2022 total offense: 129th
- 2022 total defense: 71
Offense: QB Clay Millen is back (72% completion percentage last year) with a best returning MWC receiver, almost all Olineman gone – brought in 3 non-FBS transfer OL starters,
Defense: 8 returning starters including a safety who was leading tackler
Schedule notes: Host Washington State Week 1, bye week then at CU Week 3, Utah Tech (!!!) Week 5, 11/25 at Hawaii
Takeaways: I think it is only a matter of time before Norvell has the Rams a legit contender. I doubt it is this year but this evidently could be your darkhorse Mountain West team. Given the amount of dough we may have missed out on here, I am not getting in now. I will lean over 5 and let’s get stupid here and predict they make a bowl game. I also love the Terry Tate-like look in the eyes of their mascot.
9. Utah State Aggies
- Head coach: Blake Anderson
- Total wins: O/U 4.5 wins
- Odds to win conference: +4500
- 2022 record: 6-7 (4-9 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Lost to Memphis 10-38
- 2022 total offense: 104
- 2022 total defense: 106
Offense: Cooper Legas is back, 4 new starters on OL, lost top receiver
Defense: lost majority of starting DL and secondary, several JUCO transfers coming in
Schedule notes: open at Kinnick 9/2, host JMU week 4, travel to UConn Week 5
Takeaways: Do not have a lean here either way. Nothing football related here, just get weird vibes from Blake Anderson.
10. Nevada Wolfpack
- Head coach: Ken Wilson
- Total wins: O/U 4.5 wins
- Odds to win conference: +5500
- 2022 record: 2-10 (4-8 ATS)
- Bowl game result: DNQ
- 2022 total offense: 120
- 2022 total defense: 103
Offense: losing QB, RB, top lineman and receiver, Former Buffs QB Brendan Lewis likely to run things on offense and former Duck Sean Dollars is going to be the starting RB, WR 2-4 are back
Defense: strong front 6, top corners return
Schedule notes: open at USC week 1, host Kansas Week 3, open conference play at Fresno Week 5
Takeaways: They were 120th on O last year and they are bringing in a former Buffs QB to run the offense – do not like that. Sounds like defense could be better with some returning starters but I will strongly lean under 4.5 wins here with only 6 honest to god realistic winnable games on the schedule: host Idaho, at Texas State, host UNLV, host New Mexico, host Hawaii, at CSU with the former and latter likely losses.
11. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
- Head coach: Timmy Chang
- Total wins: O/U 3.5 wins
- Odds to win conference: +15000
- 2022 record: 3-10 (9-4 ATS)
- Bowl game result: DNQ
- 2022 total offense: 115
- 2022 total defense: 123
Offense: Braden Schrager is back, but 4 of top 6 linemen and 6 of 9 receivers gone, favorite player this year is going to be returning second leading rusher 5-7 RB Tylan Hines who ran for 7.6 yards per pop last year, we also need to keep our eye on Steven McBride who is a Kansas transfer.
Defense: Logan Taylor is the Skalski of this defense along with Penei Pavihi and Isaiah Tufaga – who at least always look like studs – are both back as well, big corner Virdel Edwards II will play in the NFL
Schedule notes:
Playing 13 regular season games for a second consecutive season
8/26: At Vandy +17.5
9/1 (Friday): host Stanford 11PM EST
9/9 Host Albany
9/16 at Oregon
9/23 Host New Mexico State
10/14 Host San Diego State 11EST
10/28 Host San Jose State
11/11 Host Air Force
11/25 Host Colorado State
Takeaways: Despite being 3-10 last year, 9-4 ATS last year makes me feel smart, 115th on O and 123rd on D does not make me think I deserved it. O/U 3.5 wins and tied for longest odds 150-1 to win MWC – I will lean over on wins and don’t accuse me of having a problem if I put a couple bucks for them to win the Mountain West as well. If they win as 150-1 underdogs and I did not have any dough on it, I could never forgive myself.
12. New Mexico Lobos
- Head coach: Danny Gonzales
- Total wins: O/U 3.5
- Odds to win conference: +16000
- 2022 record: 2-10 (3-8-1 ATS)
- Bowl game result: DNQ
- 2022 total offense: 130th
- 2022 total defense: 61st
Offense: new OC from UAB is bringing the QB Dylan Hopkins with him, experience on OL, some talented transfer receivers
Defense: DC left for Syracuse,only 5 of 15 starters with 250+ snaps return, 3 of 4 starters in secondary gone, top tackler transferred to SDSU
Schedule notes: open at Texas A&M, host New Mexico State Week 3, at Wyoming/Boise St/Fresno
Takeaways: Taking the under 3.5 wins here -115 on DK. Bonus points for the coach as he is an alum but he has not won more than 3 games in a season 2-5, 3-9, 2-10. Out of conference features Texas A&M, Tennessee Tech, New Mexico State and at UMass prior to conference play. Best case here is 1 to 2 wins and they are the worst team in the conference so I think 1 to 2 wins is most likely here. I would be shocked with more than 2-3 wins for the Lobos.
Mountain West Takeaways:
A lot of good defenses with coinciding weak offenses in this conference, so will consider a lot of intra-conference unders (with the exception of Boise State, San Jose State, and Hawaii when playing on the island).
Plays: New Mexico Lobos under 4.5 wins -128 FanDuel
Leans: Boise State over 8.5 wins, UNLV under 6/Vandy to cover vs UNLV Week 3, SJSU over 5.5 wins, Nevada under 4.5 Wins, Hawaii over 3.5 wins
Other plays I like: Fresno State unders, Air Force unders, Wyoming unders,
Conference title game prediction: Boise State (+200) over San Jose State
Long shot: San Jose State +1600
Snake’s leans: Air Force over 8.5 wins, Jaylen Mayden breakout season
San Jose State O 5.5 wins OR to cover 9/16 vs Toledo, Nevada Under 4.5 wins
Conference preview disclaimer:
Most of my information was obtained from Bill Connelly’s conference previews on ESPN and the Cover 3 Podcast’s Summer School hosted by Bud Elliott. Thanks to them for saving me an abundance of time in accumulating information on each team. This is all for fun and pure enjoyment so apologies in advance for any incorrect information including misspellings in names, changes in odds, or players listed on the wrong team as the revolving door on the transfer portal never stops. Lastly, sorry if any bias is present in any of my takes, but if it seems like I hate one team more than another, it is probably because I hate one team more than another.