Teams: 4
Who’s in/Who’s out in 2023:
Liberty and New Mexico State to Conference USA, BYU to the Big 12. No new independent teams this year.
1. Army Black Knights
- Total wins: O/U 6
- Head coach: Jeff Monken
- Bowl game: DNQ – two wins against FCS schools
- 2022 record: 6-6 (7-5 ATS)
- 2022 total offense: 63
- 2022 total defense: 33
Offense: Debuting a SHOTGUN TRIPLE OPTION OFFENSE this year with their new OC after the NCAA banned chop blocking outside the tackle box. New QB this year – have to think throwing skills have to play a role in that decision for likely the first time ever. Bringing 4 lineman back
Defense: Legit defense last year. One of only 3 teams to hold opponents under 175 yards passing 9x last year. They did get run over on a few occurrences so the opponent did not really have to throw. Regardless, they return their entire secondary.
Schedule notes: at LSU in October, plus 3 Sun Belt, 2 ACC, AAC, FCS schools, playing Navy at Gillette Stadium this year, playing Air Force at Empower Field 11/4
Takeaways: Dewayne Coleman lit up the spring game – could be exciting to watch this year if he can win the job. Schedule is fairly unfavorable though with matchups against 3 reigning conference champs (UTSA, Troy, Air Force) plus LSU. This means they would have to beat Navy and win 2 of 3 against Coastal Carolina, Syracuse, and BC. I think there is a better chance of no bowl game than a bowl game this year. But you won’t catch me dead taking the under win total on a service academy team.
2. University of Connecticut Huskies
- Head coach: Jim Mora
- Total wins: O/U 5
- 2022 record: 6-7 (9-4 ATS)
- Bowl game: Defeated by Marshall 28-14 in Myrtle Beach Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 117
- 2022 total defense: 62
Offense: Taquan Roberson will be back from injury to battle incumbent starter Zion Turner. If Taquan beats out Zion Turner for the job (which seems possible), I think you have to be happy knowing what you have (at least flashes of solid) if he does not play up to expectations. Brought in some Power 5 pass catchers including one from Michigan. They also brought in a brick shit house back from Louisville who killed it in 2021 but did not play much last season with what I could gather was a lower leg injury.
Defense: Almost everyone is back on defense which help build some momentum into this year
Schedule notes: Sprinkle of ACC, Sun Belt, CUSA, Mountain West, AAC, and SEC At Tennessee 11/4
Takeaways: Finishing with Sacred Heart and UMass means they need to win 3 of 4 vs the only other realistically winnable games on their schedule: Georgia State, FIU, Rice, and South Florida in order to hit the OVER 4.5 W’s. I 100% think they can do this and I will not be surprised when this team steals another one we weren’t expecting as well. (It is important to note here I said nothing about playoffs.)
3. UMass-Amherst Minutemen
- Head coach: Don Brown 2nd year – former Michigan D-coordinator (UMass HC from 2004-2008)
- Total wins: O/U 2.5
- 2022 record: 1-11 (5-7)
- Bowl game: DNQ
- 2022 total offense: 131 (dead last)
- 2022 total defense: 104
Offense: Thirteen points or less in 9 of 12 games last year – dead last in total offense. Taisun Phommachahn is suspected starter at QB after transferring from GA Tech after 1 year (previously UConn and Clemson as well)
Defense: massive improvement on defense allowing nearly 25% less yards than the previous year, revamped D through the portal
Schedule notes: With the exception of playing at Auburn and at Penn State this year, their schedule is not insane. It is highlighted by 3 matchups against MAC teams as well as a finale vs UConn.
Takeaways: Don Brown has completely revamped this team on offense and defense so it is hard to say what we should be expecting here but something tells me this team takes a step in the right direction this year. No strong feelings from me either way here.I think they’ll be bad per usual but three wins isn’t an outrageous request.
4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Head coach: Macus Freeman
- Total wins: O/U 8.5 wins
- 2022 record: 9-4 (7-6 ATS)
- Bowl game: Defeated South Carolina 45-38 in Gator Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 41
- 2022 total defense: 39
Offense: Typically not a transfer school but possibly made the biggest splash in the portal this offseason when they brought in Sam Hartman from Wake. Gerad Parker (not team’s first choice) replacing Tommy Rees as OC, have a strong returning line including two tackles who could go in the first round of the upcoming draft. Starting RBs Diggs and Estime are returning. Do have to replace leading pass catcher Michael Mayer who caught twice as many balls (67) as anyone else last year.
Defense: Benjamin Morrison is the safety with six picks last year as a freshman. Biggest weak spot could be the d-line given it is a bit undersized.
Schedule notes: kick things off at Navy in Dublin Ireland to kick off the season, host OSU 9/23, host Southern Cal 10/14, play at Clemson 11/4, Sam Hartman takes on his old team 11/18 in South Bend
Takeaways: ND’s run at the end of last year is what has me pumped for a 12-team playoff. Let’s not forget this team lost to Marshall and Stanford and then curbstomped Clemson. 2023 presents a new QB everyone is excited about, two-headed RB monster, with some question marks at receiver and an undersized d-line. Started to love ND at the end of last year and now with a proven QB, I do not see why they could not win 9 games here. After watching what they did to Clemson last year, I’m going to get stupid and say I think they pull off the upset over the Buckeyes this year. Call me a sucker but I’d lean OVER on the 8.5 wins.
Independent takeaways:
Leans: Uconn over 5 wins, Notre Dame over 8.5 win