Big 12 Conference – founded 1994
Teams: 14 (no divisions)
Who’s in/Who’s out in 2023:
UCF, Cincinnati, Houston (AAC) and BYU (independent) moving in. Oklahoma and Texas final year before move to SEC next year.
Reigning Champ:
Kansas State Wildcats
Schedule features:
9 conference games plus 3 non-conference games
Conference Championship:
Top two teams meet at AT&T Stadium 12/2/2023
Biggest stadium:
Darrell K. Royal Memorial Stadium with a capacity of 100,119 in Austin, Texas
Things to Consider:
Very weird overlap year with teams coming in and moving out. I can’t help but wonder whether Texas and Oklahoma develop a target on their back after hearing the Big 12 commissioner’s media day comments referencing their absence in the Big 12 championship game the past two years.
1. Texas Longhorns
- Win total: O/U 9.5
- Odds to win conference
- championship:+105
- Head coach: Steve Sarkisian
- 2022 record: 8-5 (8-5 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Lost to Washington 20-27 in Alamo Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 25
- 2022 total defense: 28
Offense: Quinn Ewers and Xavier Worthy return, most of O line, lose Bijan Robinson but have a couple of returning underclassmen including Jonathon Brooks who scored 70 TDs as a senior in high school
Defense: return most of D-line including 355-lb T’Vondre Sweat, secondary should be top heavy, #1 LB 2023 class Anthony Hill
Schedule notes: 9/9 at Alabama, vs Oklahoma 10/7, at Kansas State 11/4
Takeaways: I’ve been in and out on Texas over the past 5 years but they seem to be recruiting at an elite level and I do think Quinn Ewers could be one of the top 10 best players in the country this year. Their biggest loss is Robinson but let’s face it – there may not be a more expendable position at a school like Texas. The back-up could be just as good. I would lean over despite having Bama on the schedule gives them only one other loss to work with. I suspect they will make the Big 12 championship game but I am not willing to put any hard earned cash on Texas finally being back.
2. Oklahoma Sooners
- Win total: O/U 9.5
- Odds to win conference championship:+380
- Head coach: Brent Venables
- 2022 record: 6-7 (5-8 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Defeated by Florida State 35-32 in Cheez-It Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 33
- 2022 total defense: 99
Offense: Dillon Gabriel returns (3168 yards, 25 TDs), lose Marvin Mims and top TE but return second leading WR Jalil Farooq and Drake Stoops to ruin another one of my bets, 1300-yard rusher Eric Gray needs replaced
Defense: lack size up front and overall fairly weak, Dasan McCullough (Indiana) transferring in, secondary returns only 3 of top 8 guys but safety Billy Bowman may be best player
Schedule notes: vs Texas 10/7, at Ok State 11/4, host TCU 11/24
Takeaways: Maybe the Sooners weren’t as bad as we all thought last year. They were 0-5 in one-score games and considering the law of averages, we should presume some of those games go their way this year. I am a bit shocked by this total though and I suspect the chances of them going 10-2 is much lower than 9-3. Overall,. I find Brent Venables, Dillon Gabriel, Drake Stoops all very hard to root for and I’m strictly pulling for a non-double digit win season because of rooting interest but do not have a play here.
3. Kansas State Wildcats
- Win total: 8
- Odds to win conference championship:+650
- Head coach: Chris Kleiman
- 2022 record: 10-4 (9-4-1 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Defeated by Alabama 20-45
- 2022 total offense: 37
- 2022 total defense: 29
Offense: Will Howard (6 starts last year), All-American guard and two other all-conference lineman return, Florida State transfer plus returning sophomore to replace Deuce Vaughn, two receiving weapons return as well
Defense: two solid linebackers, two defensive ends return, small up front with returning depth and only 3 of 10 guys back from secondary with 100+ snaps
Schedule notes: Host Troy 9/9, Host TCU 10/21, at Texas 11/4
Takeaways: A Pennsylvania native (with Temple being the only PA-school to offer him a scholarship), Howard looked solid when I saw him last year including 3 total TDs in the Big 12 Championship game. The defense is losing a lot but overall if it does not take too much of a step back, this team should be able to excel running the ball and with Howard’s returning experience and playmaking ability. Eight wins seems low for a defending conference champion so I’ll lean over here.
4. Texas Tech Red Raiders
- Win total: 7.5
- Odds to win conference championship:+1200
- Head coach: Joey McGuire
- 2022 record:8-5 (8-5 ATS)
- Bowl game result: defeated Ole Miss 42-25 in Texas Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 27
- 2022 total defense: 93
Offense: Frequently injured Tyler Shough returns along with nine other starters plus two starting transfer OL from Western Kentucky, returning top receiver and rusher with 700+ yards last year
Defense: lost two leading tacklers and both guys with double-digit tackles for loss, inexperienced talented corners, looks like some depth in the middle of front 7
Schedule notes: 9/9 Host Oregon, host Kansas State 10/14, vs TCU 11/2, at Texas 11/24
Takeaways: Seems like a team that trips someone up (probably at home) and ruins one of my parlays. And speaking of paralys, I do not trust the Shoup guy even 1% after him costing my brother and I a $500 risk free Fan Duel parlay on Thanksgiving 2020. I know they bring a lot back but it’s Texas Tech and I am not going to pretend these guys are a legitimate dark horse Big 12 team. One would suspect they should be a good over team until the Shough guy gets inevitably injured but I will be in heavy on Week 1 under vs Wyoming. Overall, this looks like a rough start with the opener in Laramie, Wyoming and then hosting Oregon the following weekend. No strong lean here from me.
5. Baylor Bears
- Win total: O/U 7
- Odds to win conference championship:+2000
- Head coach: Dave Aranda
- 2022 record: 6-7 (7-6 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Defeated by Air Force 30-15
- 2022 total offense: 38
- 2022 total defense: 68
Offense: Blake Shapen returns after mediocre first season as started, finished with 50% or less last two games, would not be surprised to see Miss St transfer Sawyer Robertson early in the year, returning sophomore RB with nearly 1000 yards last year and 14 TDs, one returning player in rotating top 7 OL, bringing in a set of brothers from BYU
Defense: replacing 5 of 7 guys in secondary, top 2 defensive lineman return
Schedule notes: 9/9 Host Utah, host Texas, host Texas Tech 10/7, at Kansas State 11/11
Takeaways: I consider myself a Dave Aranda guy but I am not gung ho about Baylor bouncing back to 2021 form. For some reason, I cannot take Baylor seriously and I have to admit that I think some of that may be Blake Shapen’s facial hair. I think 7 wins is right on the money. Only scenario I see where these guys make a run is if the back-up gets a chance and he plays up to his high school hype and their defense returns to 2021 level.
6. Texas Christian Horned Frogs
- Win total: O/U 7.5
- Odds to win conference championship:+2100
- Head coach: Sonny Dykes
- 2022 record: 13-2 (10-4-1 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Defeated Michigan 51-45, Defeated by Georgia 65-7
- 2022 total offense: 10
- 2022 total defense: 91
Offense: Kendall Briles in for Garrett Riley to call plays, Chandler Morris gets his crack at things (again), losing top two RBs and top 3 wide receivers (all drafted into the NFL), Bama RB Trey Sanders and WR Jojo Earle coming in, losing All-American lineman
Defense: losing best player at all 3 levels, replacing four of 7 Dlineman but return a lot in back seven
Schedule notes: Host Colorado 9/2, at Houston 9/16, at Kansas St 10/21, at Texas Tech 11/2, Host Texas 11/11, at Oklahoma 11/24
Takeaways: They unfortunately don’t miss out on any of the Big 12 big dogs and are currently a projected underdog in 3 of their last 5 games. One thing we all forget is how bad their defense was last year but despite losing a few players off the top, their returning depth should be particularly good (and honestly better). Something tells me Chandler Morris is going to look really good and some of the transfers on O probably become household names fairly quickly. I actually think their defense might be better and they may not take as big of a step back as people think offensively so I will lean over and (eff it) even take a flyer on these guys to win the Big 12 this year at +2100. Don’t be surprised if they start 7-0 again. Also of note, 9/16 seems like a game TCU covers to me.
7. University of Central Florida Knights
- Win total: O/U 7
- Odds to win conference championship:+3500
- Head coach: Guz Malzahn
- 2022 record: 9-5 (7-7 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Defeated by Duke 13-30 in Military Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 31
- 2022 total defense: 46
Offense: John Rhys Plumlee returns, two all-conference group of 5 lineman and former 4-star Alabama tackle transferring in to join an all-conference guard, top receiver back, new OC will be running more pro-style offense this year
Defense: experience on D-line, top tackler Jason Johnson returns, 5 transfer DBs coming in
Schedule notes: at Boise State 9/9, kick off conference play at Kansas State 9/23, at Oklahoma 10/21, at Texas Tech 11/18
Takeaways: Bill Connelly seems to think this could be the team that surprises people in the Big 12. Gus Malzahn does give off mad scientist vibes at times so maybe there is something to that. I find myself in a difficult position taking this team’s win total over and having to root for Plumlee the whole season so even though I trust Connelly’s input, I will watch their success (or unsuccessfulness) from the sidelines.
8.Oklahoma State Cowboys
- Win total: O/U 6.5
- Odds to win conference championship:+5000
- Head coach: Mike Gundy
- 2022 record: 7-6 (6-7 ATS)
- Bowl game result:
- 2022 total offense: 50
- 2022 total defense: 89
Offense: Spencer Sanders transferred out, Alan Bowman starting for first time since 2018 (Texas Tech), multiple transfer skill players
Defense: bringing in a new defensive coordinator Bryan Nardo after a big step backwards last year from losing Jim Knowles, the new DC is from GANNON UNIVERSITY, do return a few playmakers on D including 2022 co-Big 12 freshman of year
Other notes: legit kicker – former Lou Groza finalist
Schedule notes: at Arizona State 9/9, South Alabama Jaguars 9/16, host Kansas State 10/6, host Oklahoma 11/4
Takeaways: Oklahoma State does not have to play Texas or TCU and host their two toughest opponents which should help. I think I would lean under with one more serious Big 12 contender on this schedule. Overall, I honestly do not know what to think of Bowman running the offense and Gannon University’s DC running the defense so no plays from me here.
9. Kansas Jayhawks
- Win total: O/U 6
- Odds to win conference championship:+4800
- Head coach: Lance Leipold
- 2022 record: 6-7 (7-5-1 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Defeated by Arkansas 53-55
- 2022 total offense: 21
- 2022 total defense: 124
Offense: Jalon Daniels (and backup quarter with the wild hair returns), top RB, receiving corp, most of OL back
Defense: two SEC transfers in, 325 lb DL in as well, returning starting experience in secondary
Schedule notes: Host Illinois 9/8, at Texas 9/30, at Ok State 10/14, host Oklahoma 10/28, at Iowa State, Host Kansas State 11/18
Takeaways: I still cannot take Kansas football seriously after realizing they had a losing record last year. I do think the offense should look good and do suspect their defense still won’t look good, so I will be on the lookout for some overs. I would say 6-6 with a 3-1 start is certainly possible so I’ll be boring and guess a push on the total wins. I’ll take it one step further and predict the Daniels guy does not play in the bowl game and they get crushed by a Group of 5 school to finish 6-7 again.
10. Iowa State Cyclones
- Win total: O/U 4.5
- Odds to win conference championship:+8000
- Head coach: Matt Campbell
- 2022 record: 4-8 (4-7-1 ATS)
- Bowl game result: DNQ
- 2022 total offense: 113
- 2022 total defense: 18
Notes: 5 starters in trouble with state of Iowa for gambling on games
Offense: Hunter Dekkers stats up in the air, JJ Kohl 6’7’’ Iowan waiting in wings, 4 lineman return, new OC Nate Scheelhaase in to call plays, lose Xavier Hutchinson (163 targets last year!) with returning WRs with 8% drop rate or higher
Defense: losing two starting ends, best LB and safety, one of conference’s top corner duos returning
Other notes: terrible kicking game last year
Schedule notes: Host Iowa 9/9, at Ohio 9/16, at Oklahoma 9/30, host TCU 10/7, host Texas 11/18 and at Kansas State 11/25
Takeaways: I stumbled across too much Iowa State football (and Hunter Dekkers) last year on early Saturday afternoons and I was extremely unimpressed. Maybe JJ Kohl is the answer here. With some experience under their belt and a new OC, one can imagine the offense can’t look worse. The defense could take a step back but the D is consistently good year in and year out. I can’t decide if I love or hate Matt Campbell but something tells me these guys overperform and he finds himself at Northwestern or some other Big 10 school (Indiana?) next year. But with games at BYU, hosting Texas, and at K-State finish, this team would have to start really hot and I just do not see that happening.
11. Brigham Young Cougars
- Win total: O/U 5.5
- Odds to win conference championship:+10000
- Head coach: Kelani Sitake
- 2022 record: 8-5 (5-8 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Defeated SMU 24-23 in New Mexico Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 44
- 2022 total defense: 98
Offense: Kedon Slovis in to replace Jaren Hall, transfers at skill positions and O-line, replacing 3 starting O-lineman (with two brothers transferring to Baylor), no true WR1
Defense: Weber State’s head coach coming in to coach the D, former Utah State LB AJ Vongphachahn (not to be confused with Taisun Phommachanh) is transferring in and he had over 100 tackles last year, lost best LB and DB
Other notes: Just seeing that no one took a flyer on Gunner Romney in the NFL which is pretty surprising
Schedule notes: at Arkansas 9/16, at Kansas 9/23 at TCU 10/14, at Texas 10/28, Host Oklahoma 11/18, at Oklahoma State 11/25
Takeaways: Sounds like there is some decent turmoil in Provo given the turnover – including guys like Hall and Romney leaving early despite having eligibility left. I think they are realistically going to be outmatched quite often this year. Regardless, I think Provo is always going to be a tough place to play and I’ll be on the lookout for some home unders with these upcoming overzealous Big 12 totals from the bookies.
12. Cincinnati Bearcats
- Win total: O/U 5
- Odds to win conference championship:+12000
- Head coach: Scott Satterfield
- 2022 record: 9-4 (3-9-1 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Defeated by Louisville 7-24
- 2022 total offense: 59
- 2022 total defense: 20
Offense: possibly only two returning starters, Emory Jones (Arizona State) battling for starting job after Ben Bryant transferred (again) to Northwestern, top runner, top 8 receivers, 5 of 6 primary lineman gone and major concerns at tackle, 6 transfer WRs
Defense: defensive line should be strength of team, lost leading tackler but his younger brother returns, lots of questions on D overall
Schedule notes: at Pitt 9/9, host Oklahoma 9/23, at Ok State 10/28,
Takeaways: avoiding Texas, TCU, and Kansas State has to feel pretty good but I still love the Bearcats under. Scott Satterfield has not been a good coach at the Power 5 level with a 25-24 record at Louisville. And in one of the wildest things I can ever remember in college football, let’s not forget he had a front row seat to watch his ex-girlfriend kick his new girlfriend’s ass in the bowl game. Expecting Emory Jones to be something he isn’t in year 6 on his third team seems unlikely. I think offense struggles and their defense takes a huge step back. I am seeing one for sure win Week 1 and a double digit favorite week 3 vs Miami OH with only four games they might be favored the rest of the way (host Iowa State and Baylor and at Houston and at WVU). I hate taking whole numbers but I feel much better about them winning 4 games than winning 6. I can see Kansas playing for a bowl game in the final week of the season and knocks them off for this to hit.
13.West Virginia Mountaineers
- Win total: O/U 5
- Odds to win conference championship:+15000
- Head coach: Neal Brown
- 2022 record: 5-7 (6-6 ATS)
- Bowl game result: DNQ
- 2022 total offense: 52
- 2022 total defense: 116
Offense: Graham Harrell gone to call plays at Purdue, three RBs back including CJ Donaldson, Jr., all 5 starting lineman back, Garrett Greene is a scrappy QB returning without last year’s top 4 receivers
Defense: Only 7 of 19 defenders with 200+ snaps return, four transfer DL and DBs coming in
Schedule notes: at Penn State 9/2, host Duquesne 9/9, host Pitt 9/16, host Texas Tech 9/23, at Oklahoma 11/11
Takeaways: I’m scratching my head thinking about how WVU hosting BYU 11/4 will be a conference game but the opener in Happy Valley won’t be. Does Neal stand a chance of saving his job? With the third hardest strength of schedule based on last year’s results, I don’t think so. I find myself rooting for him (and WVU in general) but 4 losing seasons in 5 years is not gonna make the West by God Virginians very happy. Because I’ve never had anything against the Mountaineers, I won’t take the under 5 here but suspect they may only be favored in 3 or 4 games.
14. Houston Cougars
- Win total: O/U 4.5
- Odds to win conference championship:+20000
- Head coach: Dana Holgorsen
- 2022 record: 8-5 (5-8 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Defeated Louisiana 23-16
- 2022 total offense: 17
- 2022 total defense: 112
Offense: 4k yard passer Clayton Tune (also leading rusher) graduated but Donovan Smith (Texas Tech) transferring in to play QB, losing 1400-yard receiver, transfer WRs in, RB McCaskill transferred to Colorado but WVU leading RB transferring in, 4 OL back
Defense: lose top 4 in secondary, replacing top 4 defenders with most snaps overall as well
Schedule notes: at UTSA 9/2, at Rice 9/9, host TCU 9/16, at Texas Tech 9/30, host WVU Thursday 10/12, host Texas 10/21, at Kansas State 10/28
Takeaways: Lean under here. I think the defense could be atrocious again and the offense is probably going to be worse. Have to think this team is a serious contender for Big 12 bottom feeder here in Year 1. Now taking the next step up conference-wise, I am seeing 6 or 7 coin flip games on this schedule with zero locks so 3 or 4 wins here seems very possible.
Big 12 Takeaways:
Plays: Cincinnati Under 5 wins –115 Caesars, TCU 0.5 units +2100 (can look to hedge)
Championship prediction: Texas over TCU
Leans: Texas O 9.5 wins, KState O 8 wins, TCU O 7.5 wins, Houston U 4.5
Over teams: Texas Tech (besides Week 1) and Kansas
Other plays: Wyoming vs Texas Tech Week 1 under, TCU ATS Week 3 vs Houston
Conference preview disclaimer:
Most of my information was obtained from Bill Connelly’s conference previews on ESPN and the Cover 3 Podcast’s Summer School hosted by Bud Elliott. Thanks to them for saving me an abundance of time in accumulating information on each team. This is all for fun and pure enjoyment so apologies in advance for any incorrect information including misspellings in names, changes in odds, or players listed on the wrong team as the revolving door on the transfer portal never stops. Lastly, sorry if any bias is present in any of my takes, but if it seems like I hate one team more than another, it is probably because I hate one team more than another.