Atlantic Coast Conference – founded 1953
Teams: 14 (no divisions)
Who’s in/Who’s out in 2023:
No changes
Reigning Champ:
Clemson Tigers (have won 7 of past 8 – Pitt won in 2021)
Schedule features:
8 conference games plus 4 non-conference games
Conference Championship:
Top two teams meet at BOA Stadium in Charlotte, NC 12/2/2023
Biggest stadium:
Memorial Stadium in Clemson, SC with a capacity of 81,500
Things to Consider:
ACC quietly had the one-sided Big Ten championship game phenomenon going on as well where the Atlantic teams were 10-1 in Championship games. They defeated the Coastal teams by an average score of 41-18 during this stretch. The Coastal division did produce 7 different champions in the past 7 years however which is awesome for everyone involved.
1. Clemson Tigers
- Win total: O/U 9.5
- Odds to win conference championship:+150
- Head coach: Dabo Swinney
- 2022 record: 11-3 (7-7 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Defeated by Tennessee
- 31-14 in Capital One Orange Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 30
- 2022 total defense: 22
Offense: Garrett Riley in to lead the O, Cade Klubnik now the guy, Will Shipley back likely to have breakout year, no household names at WR…yet, replacing LT is only question mark on O-line
Defense: Jeremiah Trotter, Jr. back, future NFL players replacing current NFL players on the d-line, secondary with lots of experience
Schedule notes: host Florida State 9/23, at Miami 10/21, host Notre Dame 11/4, host North Carolina 11/18, at South Carolina 11/25
Other notes: Clemson took ZERO transfers. Dabo said he was most worried about kicker when asked in the spring.
Takeaways: I remember Nathan Peterman-led Pitt beating Deshaun Watson in 2016. Since that time, Clemson has won 40 straight ACC games at home. I have a hard time believing they won’t be in the ACC championship game again this year. Also of note, I will be keeping my eye on that 9/23 spread and will be ready to pounce when I see an even 3 on the board. Before we try to predict anything here, let’s remember that a year ago, Garrett Riley made Max Duggan look like Johnny Manziel. I cannot wait to see how Cale Klubnik looks this fall. I am not going to hit this total but have a hard time believing they won’t repeat as ACC champs so I am jumping in on the plus odds to win the conference.
2. Florida State Seminoles
- Win total: O/U 9.5
- Odds to win conference championship:+185
- Head coach: Mike Norvell
- 2022 record: 10-3 (8-5 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Defeated Oklahoma 35-32 in Cheez-It Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 16
- 2022 total defense: 21
Offense: Jordan Travis (32 total TDs), Trey Benson 990 yards (6.4 YPC), Johnny Wilson may be best receiver in college football
Defense: Jared Verse returns, transfer DTs joint unit, lose all-ACC safety but return everyone else in secondary plus both LBs
Schedule notes: vs LSU 9/3 (Orlando, FL), at Clemson 9/23, at Pitt 11/4, at Florida 11/25
Takeaways: Expectations haven’t been this high since 2014. Travis made a lot of good decisions last year and maybe even more importantly not a lot of bad ones like I had come to expect. I do not think this team is as good as Clemson but I do think they are in that clear first tier with them. I would lean 9-3 here with away/neutral site games vs LSU, Clemson, Pitt, Florida all as games I can see them dropping.
3. North Carolina Tar Heels
- Win total: O/U 8.5
- Odds to win conference championship:+1200
- Head coach: Mack Brown
- 2022 record: 9-5 (6-7-1 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Defeated by Oregon 27-28
- 2022 total offense: 22
- 2022 total defense: 102
Offense: Drake May 4321 yards passing last year as well as leading rusher, returning experience on O-line, losing top two receivers including Josh Downs, OC gone to Wisconsin and new OC wants to emphasize run game more, RG moving to LT
Defense: Gene Chizik returning to coach the defense despite 30th worst last year, returning starters in front 7, massive turnover at LB and secondary with almost all transfers coming in expected to contribute
Schedule notes: vs South Carolina 9/2 (College Gameday – Charlotte, NC), host App State 9/9, host Minnesota 9/16, at Pitt 9/23, at Clemson 11/18
Takeaways: I will presume the defense is a liability again and the offense is not good enough to get to 9 wins. They lost 4 straight to end last season and I would not be stunned if they start 1-3 this year. I would lean under 8.5 here and the money seems to be going that way as well. Also have to consider unders as well if they truly do start to run the ball more as well (which likely in turn helps out their defense as well).
4. Louisville Cardinals
- Win total: O/U 8
- Odds to win conference championship:+1200
- Head coach: Jeff Brohm
- 2022 record: 8-5 (8-5 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Defeated Cincinnati 24-7 in Wasabi Fenway Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 74
- 2022 total defense: 12
Offense: Jack Plummer in to play QB, question mark at receiver – top returning WR with 31 grabs, RB Jawhar Jordan returns 5.7ypc, 800+ yards rushing last season, Purdue LT transferring in
Defense: huge turnover on Dline, leading tackler gone, transfers in secondary adding to returning all-conference corner
Schedule notes: vs Georgia Tech 9/1, vs Indiana 9/16 (Indianapolis, IN), host Notre Dame 10/7, at Pitt 10/14, host Kentucky 11/25
Takeaways: I think Jack Plummer is bad. Yet, somehow Jeff Brohm will make him look good. You know these guys will win at least one game where they are a massive underdog. I think 8-4 is most likely given they avoid Clemson, North Carolina, and Florida State somehow so I will go push here in Brohm’s first year.
5. Miami Hurricanes
- Win total: O/U 7.5
- Odds to win conference championship:+2300
- Head coach: Mario Cristobal
- 2022 record: 5-7 (2-10 ATS)
- Bowl game result: DNQ
- 2022 total offense: 97
- 2022 total defense: 69
Offense: Incumbent QB Tyler Van Dyke battled injuries last year and his performance took a huge step back as well, OC Josh Gattis fired and replaced – new OC runs Air Raid but wants to incorporate in run game as well, several returning non-big name receivers
Defense: replacing DC as well, losing top two players with most snaps, transfers in to help out below-average defense
Schedule notes: Host Texas A&M 9/9, at UNC 10/14, host Clemson 10/21, at FSU 11/11
Takeaways: 2-10 against the spread last year is insanity and those offensive/defensive rankings are embarrassing. Offensive line coach Alex Mirabal once infamously said he will cut off his arms and legs before anybody considers the offensive line a weakness. I’ll say it: 93rd in yards per carry last year, Football Outsiders has the o-line no higher than 47th in any advanced statistical category including 115th in sack rate. I’ll go ahead and say it, get the chainsaw out, Alex. Getting the three conference favorites on the schedule (including 2 of them on the road) will not help this year’s record either. I have no lean here but a soft out of conference schedule makes 8 wins possible..Also, just a quick thank you to Miami for paying Manny Diaz $8 million to go away so he could in turn become Penn State’s DC.
6. North Carolina State Wolfpack
- Win total: O/U 6.5
- Odds to win conference championship:+2500
- Head coach: Dave Doern
- 2022 record: 8-5 (4-9 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Defeated by Maryland in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl 12-16
- 2022 total offense: 94
- 2022 total defense: 13
Offense: Brennan Armstrong (4400 yards in 2021) in for departing Devin Leary (Kentucky) and Ben Finley (Cal) along with his 2021 VA OC, losing two all-conference lineman
Defense: questions at inside LB and safety, sacks and tackles leader leader on defense gone
Schedule notes: 8/31 at UConn, 9/9 host Notre Dame, host Louisville 9/29, host Clemson 10/28, host UNC 11/25
Takeaways: Should be a good under team. Cover 3 Podcast seems to love this over with Brennan Armstrong running the offense. Over 6.5 is currently -140 on FanDuel and let’s not forget Dave Doern has won 7 games in 7 of the past 8 years. I’ll lean over because I trust the Cover 3 pod but this schedule does not look easy to me and their one bright spot last year (the defense) has to replace a lot.
7. Pittsburgh Panthers
- Win total: O/U 7
- Odds to win conference championship:+2500
- Head coach: Pat Narduzzi
- 2022 record: 9-4 (6-7 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Defeated UCLA 37-35 in Sun Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 45
- 2022 total defense: 52
Offense: Phil Jurkovec in to replace Kedon Slovis, losing Israel Abanidkanda but do have the Sun Bowl MVP Rodney Hammond replacing him, lost 1000-yard receiver, Konata Mumpfield with 58 grabs last year returns along with Bub Means (excellent names), 3 returning O lineman
Defense: losing most of d-line, only one returning starter with 4+ sacks, cornerbacks should be strong
Schedule notes: at WVU 9/16, UNC 9/23, at Va Tech 9/30, at Notre Dame 10/28, FSU 11/4
Takeaways: Pitt had a sneaky good 9-win season last year. They avoid Clemson this year but get Notre Dame as a replacement instead. Overall, this schedule is not super friendly whatsoever. Playing at Morgantown, Blacksburg, and South Bend doesn’t seem very fun (although one would think they will be favored in two of those). One thing that makes a Pitt projection difficult is they do seem like a team that could knock off Notre Dame one week then lose to Boston College at home a few weeks later. Other things to consider, Danny Kanell wildly referred to Phil Jurkovec as “not the brightest bulb” so I am going to keep my eye out on this. Worth noting, his OC is the same OC who was with him in breakout season at BC in 2021 and his brother is the JMU’s Head Coach.
8.Duke Blue Devils
- Win total: O/U 6.5
- Odds to win conference championship:+4000
- Head coach: Mike Elko
- 2022 record: 9-4 (9-4 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Defeated UCF 30-13 in Military Bowl
- 2022 total offense: 32
- 2022 total defense: 31
Offense: 3 OL gone but the rest of the starters return including third-year QB Riley Leonard who was leading rusher as well, top 3 receivers back, 3 of top 5 lineman gone
Defense: 8 starters return but losing top tackler, young talent in secondary
Schedule notes: open hosting Clemson 9/4, host Notre Dame 9/30, at Florida State 10/21, at UNC 11/11
Takeaways: If I’m Duke, I wanna play essentially unwinnable games like Clemson and Notre Dame on the road so I can play someone beatable at home instead. Not getting Va Tech, Syracuse, or Boston College will not help this team’s win total either. Bill Connelly seems to hint at an improvement overall from this team with a step back in record but 6.5 win total still seems low to me so I would lean over.
9. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
- Win total: O/U 6.5
- Odds to win conference championship:+6000
- Head coach: Dave Clawson
- 2022 record: 8-5 (8-5 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Defeated Missouri 27-17
- 2022 total offense: 18
- 2022 total defense: 83
Offense: Mitch Griffis to replace Sam Hartman, leading rusher back, 4 receivers with at least 37 receptions return, losing 3 OL starters
Defense: top DE transferred to Oklahoma, but other stud Jasheen Davis returns, experience in secondary
Schedule notes: at Clemson 10/7, host Florida State 10/28, at Notre Dame 11/18, at Syracuse 11/25
Takeaways: I am seeing only 2 for-sure wins (Elon and Old Dominion) and 3 for sure losses (Clemson, Florida State, Notre Dame) which leaves 7 toss-ups. Needing to go 5-2 in toss-up games seems just about impossible. I actually placed the under 6.5 (twice) but then cashed it out (twice) when I looked into the QB. He is a bit undersized but I am getting Trace McSorley vibes from this guy and of course he is from the same hometown. I think this team goes 5-7 or 6-6 so I will lean under but no plays here from me.
10. Syracuse Orange
- Win total: O/U 6.5
- Odds to win conference championship:+8000
- Head coach: Dino Babers
- 2022 record: 7-6 (7-6 ATS)
- Bowl game result: Defeated by Minnesota 20-28
- 2022 total offense: 70
- 2022 total defense: 41
Offense: Sean Tucker gone but returning Lequint Allen averaged 6.7 yards per carry last year in limited action, Garrett Shrader (65% completion) and Oronde Gadsden II (969 yards) return
Defense: both leading tackler and leader in total sacks are back, safety transferred to Ohio St
Schedule notes: at Purdue 9/16, Clemson 9/30, at UNC 10/7, at Florida State 10/14
Takeaways: Murderer’s row in the middle of the season with Clemson, at UNC, at Florida State before a much-needed bye week. No clue what to make of Syracuse this year but I will enjoy watching Garrett Shrader and Oronde Gadsden II this year and I will also miss Sean Tucker’s tweets recapping the games.
11. Virginia Tech Hokies
- Win total: O/U 5.5
- Odds to win conference championship:+15000
- Head coach: Brent Pry
- 2022 record: 3-8 (4-7 ATS)
- Bowl game result: DNQ
- 2022 total offense: 118
- 2022 total defense: 54
Offense: Baylor transfer in to compete with Grant Wells at QB, two transfer WRs will be best receiving weapons, may start off using both, OL big question marks including redshirt freshman at LG and LT
Defense: returning of 8 of top 13 players with 300+ snaps, top two DTs back, question mark at Mike LB
Other notes: VA tech beat reporter claimed the team did not have a single kick return outside the 30-yard line last year
Schedule notes: Host Pitt 9/30, at Florida State 10/7, at Virginia 11/25
Takeaways: Avoid North Carolina and Clemson. I will be rooting for the over 5.5 wins for the sake of Pry but I do not feel comfortable putting money on it. Defense could take a step forward and if offense doesn’t improve, VA Tech should be a great under team.
12. Boston College Eagles
- Win total: O/U 5.5
- Odds to win conference championship:+15000
- Head coach: Jeff Haffley
- 2022 record: 3-9 (4-8 ATS)
- Bowl game result: DNQ
- 2022 total offense: 122
- 2022 total defense: 100
Offense: Emmett Morehead taking over for Jurkovec, UCF transfer Ryan O’Keefe 73 receptions last year, return entire Oline but averaged 63 YPG rushing and 2.1 YPC last year (dead last by almost a full yard)
Defense: linebackers should be strong, major turnover in secondary
Schedule notes: host Florida State 9/16, at Louisville 9/23, host UConn 10/28, host Miami 11/24
Takeaways: Dodging Clemson, UNC, and NC State which should help. That YPC last year was depressing and it is hard to believe they managed to win 3 games. My gut says they could win 3 games again this year so I will lean under.
13.Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
- Win total: O/U 4.5
- Odds to win conference championship:+20000
- Head coach: Brent Key
- 2022 record: 5-7 (6-6 ATS)
- Bowl game result: DNQ2022 total offense: 125
- 2022 total defense: 84
Offense: Jeff Sims out and Haynes King in to compete for starting job with Zach Pryon (ginger redshirt freshman), overhaul on offense through transfer portal including RB Trey Cooley (Louisville), 7 TEs and WRs including a WR from Georgia and Alabama, OL should be better.
Defense: two transfers in to replace LBs, a couple of pass rushers return and returning sophomore safety is best player (projected all-ACC)
Schedule notes: vs Louisville 9/1, at Ole Miss 9/16, host UNC 10/28, host UGA 11/25
Takeaways: I have home games with SC State, Boston College, and Bowling Green as wins as well as traveling to Virginia 11/4 gets us to 4 wins. Brent Key found a way to beat Pitt, Duke, Virginia Tech (on the road), and North Carolina last year. Something tells me he can pick off Wake Forest or Syracuse (or even Miami again) this year and get this thing to 5 wins. Taking GA tech over 4.5 wins.
14. Virginia Cavaliers
- Win total: O/U 3.5
- Odds to win conference championship:+30000
- Head coach: Tony Elliott
- 2022 record: 3-7 (4-6 ATS)
- Bowl game result: DNQ
- 2022 total offense: 126
- 2022 total defense: 49
Offense: Monmouth transfer Tony Muskett going to start, Clemson RB transferred in (only 30 carries last year), 3 OL starters gone from one of weakest power 5 groups
Defense: losing top two corners, losing leading tackler
Schedule notes: vs Tenn 9/2, host JMU 9/9, at Maryland 9/15, at Va Tech 11/25
Takeaways: Heavy lean under 3.5 wins on DK -135. A qb with a last name of a 16th century gun does not help. Losing your best offensive and defensive player through the transfer portal does not help either. Additionally, they are unfortunately limited on who they can bring in given they are a private school with high academic standards so cannot expect to fill voids like other schools can.
ACC Takeaways:
Plays: Clemson ACC Champions +145 (DK), Georgia Tech OVER 4.5 wins +120 DK
Conference championship game: Clemson over Florida State (boring)
ACC Coach of the Year: Brent Key
Leans: UNC Under 8.5, NC State Over 6.5, Pitt Over 7, BC Under 5.5, Wake Under 6.5 wins
Other plays: UNC unders, NC State unders, South Carolina +3 vs UNC Week 1
Conference preview disclaimer:
Most of my information was obtained from Bill Connelly’s conference previews on ESPN and the Cover 3 Podcast’s Summer School hosted by Bud Elliott. Thanks to them for saving me an abundance of time in accumulating information on each team. This is all for fun and pure enjoyment so apologies in advance for any incorrect information including misspellings in names, changes in odds, or players listed on the wrong team as the revolving door on the transfer portal never stops. Lastly, sorry if any bias is present in any of my takes, but if it seems like I hate one team more than another, it is probably because I hate one team more than another.